Policies to Reduce CO2 Emissions: Fallacies and Evidence from the United States and California

Since the 1990s, advocates of policy to prevent catastrophic climate change have been divided over the appropriate economic instruments to curb CO2 emissions-carbon taxes or schemes of emission trading. Barack Obama claimed that policies implemented during his presidency set in motion irreversible trends toward a clean-energy economy, with the years 2008-2015 given as evidence of decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth. This is despite California being the only state in the USA that has implemented a specific policy to curb emissions, a cap-and-trade scheme in place since 2013. To assess Obama's claims and the effectiveness of policies to reduce CO2 emissions, we analyze national and state-level data from the USA over the period 1990-2015. We find: (a) annual changes in emissions strongly correlated with the growth conditions of the economy; (b) no evidence for decoupling; and (c) a trajectory of CO2 emissions in California which does not at all support the claim that the cap-and-trade system implemented there has reduced CO2 emissions.Series: SRE - Discussion Paper

Long-run determinants of atmospheric CO2: Granger-causality and cointegration analysis

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 grew annually 1.12 +- 0.48 parts per million (ppm) in 1958-1984, and 1.72 +- 0.54 ppm (mean +- standard deviation) in 1985-2009, so that the rate growth is growing itself. Natural phenomena that influence short-run changes in CO2 atmospheric levels (through their influence on CO2 emissions and sinks) are stationary processes that cannot explain the growth of CO2 levels at an increasing rate. Cointegration tests show at a high level of statistical significance that the annual increase of CO2 concentrations is roughly proportional to “human activities” as measured by the money value of the world economy and the size of the world population. We find that population and world GDP help to predict CO2 concentrations, but CO2 concentrations do not help to predict the othervariables; that is, there is Ganger causality from population and world economic output to CO2. Though the smallness of the time series involved and the theoretical and practical issues posed by cointegration allow only for a limited confidence in these results, they have obvious major implications. For business-as-usual conditions and a world economy growing annually 3.5%—the mean annual growth of the world economy since 1960—the required world population to maintain or reduce CO2 levels would be 1.3 billion or less. For a world population of 7 billion as the present one, CO2 atmospheric levels would decrease if the global economy contracted annually 24.5% or more.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/88162/1/Long-run determinants of CO2 - A3- Dec 2011+refs.pd

On Social Progress and Sustainability: Will Buenos Aires Exist when the Young of Today are Old?

Se presentan y cuestionan varios conceptos sobre sostenibilidad y progreso social, se dan alternativas y se analiza brevemente la relación entre crecimiento económico y progreso en condiciones de salud (medidas según la mortalidad de menores de cinco años) en la Argentina en los años 1960-2003. Se discuten algunas informaciones recientes referentes a las previsiones científicas de efectos del cambio climático y ciertos conflictos políticos suscitados por esas previsiones. Concepts related to sustainability and social progress are discussed and questioned. Alternative views are then discussed, and the relation between economic growth and progress in health conditions (as measured by the under 5 mortality rate) in Argentina in the years 1960-2003 is briefly analyzed. The paper concludes by discussing recent reports on scientific forecasts of the effects of climate change and some political conflicts triggered by those forecasts.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/79569/1/Progreo social y sostenibilidad - Buenos Aires.pd

Recessions and Mortality in Spain, 1980–1997

The relationship between economic fluctuations and mortality is assessed with data from Spain during the years 1980–1997, when national unemployment oscillated between 7% and 24%. Mortality rates of the Spanish provinces are modeled in fixed-effect panel regressions as functions of the demographic structure and the economic conditions. Unemployment effects on general mortality, sex-specific mortality, and mortality for major causes of death are negative, i.e., death rates increase procyclically when joblessness diminishes in an economic expansion. Homicides and female suicides are only weakly related or unrelated to economic fluctuations, but male suicides escalate countercyclically during economic downturns. L’article s’intéresse aux relations entre fluctuations économiques et mortalité en Espagne sur la période 1980–1997, au cours de laquelle le taux de chômage a oscillé entre 7 et 24%. Un modèle de régression à effets constants sur données de panel est appliqué aux taux de mortalité par provinces espagnoles, prenant en compte la structure démographique et les conditions économiques. Le chômage a un effet négatif sur la mortalité totale, la mortalité par sexe et les principales causes de décès. Autrement dit, les taux de mortalité augmentent quand, en phase d’expansion économique, le chômage diminue. Les homicides et les suicides féminins sont faiblement ou pas du tout liés aux fluctuations économiques alors que les suicides masculins augmentent lorsque la situation économique se détériore.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42728/1/10680_2005_Article_4767.pd

Sobre progreso social y sostenibilidad: ¿Existirá Buenos Aires cuando los jóvenes de hoy sean viejos?

The concepts related to sustainability and social progress contained in a paper published in Salud Colectiva by Goñi and Goin are discussed and questioned. Alternative views are then discussed, and the relation between economic growth and progress in health conditions (as measured by the under 5 mortality rate) in Argentina in the years 1960-2003 is briefly analyzed. The paper concludes by discussing recent reports on scientific forecasts of the effects of climate change and some political conflicts triggered by those forecasts.Se presentan y cuestionan los conceptos sobre sostenibilidad y progreso social de un artículo de Goñi y Goin publicado en Salud Colectiva, se dan alternativas a la visión de dichos autores, se analiza brevemente la relación entre crecimiento económico y progreso en condiciones de salud (medidas según la mortalidad de menores de cinco años) en la Argentina en los años 1960-2003, y se discuten informaciones recientes referentes a las previsiones científicas de efectos del cambio climático y ciertos conflictos políticos suscitados por esas previsiones

Spijker y Gumà confirman que durante la crisis económica en España hubo una mejora de indicadores de salud

Jeroen Spijker y Jordi Gumà (1) analizan los cambios de un indicador subjetivo de salud en tres encuestas que se hicieron en 2006, 2010 y 2014 en España; según Eurostat, la tasa de desempleo alcanzó un mínimo de 6,1% en marzo de 2007 y durante la crisis subió hasta alcanzar un máximo de 26,3% en julio de 2013. Spiker y Gumà comparan tres situaciones: 2006, cuando la expansión económica, en gran parte debida al sector de la construcción (“el ladrillazo”), se acercaba a su final; 2010, cuando la recesión estaba en pleno desarrollo y el desempleo llegaba al 20%; y 2014, cuando la crisis comenzaba a remitir. Los resultados de Spijker y Gumà son, a mi juicio, uno más de los estudios que confirman que en economías de mercado asentadas, los periodos de recesión coinciden con mejoras de la salud.Discusión sobre: Spijker J, Gumà J. El efecto de la crisis económica sobre la salud en España según el nivel educativo y la relación con la actividad: ¿importa también la duración de la crisis? Salud Colectiva. 2018;14(4):655- 670. doi: 10.18294/sc.2018.129