Model-based study of the role of rainfall and land use–land cover in the changes in the occurrence and intensity of Niger red floods in Niamey between 1953 and 2012

Since 1950, the Niger River basin has gone through three main climatic periods: a wet period (1950–1960), an extended drought (1970–1980) and since 1990 a recent partial recovery of annual rainfall. Hydrological changes co-occur with these rainfall fluctuations. In most of the basin, the rainfall deficit caused an enhanced discharge deficit, but in the Sahelian region the runoff increased despite the rainfall deficit. Since 2000 the Sahelian part of the Niger has been hit by an increase of flood hazards during the so-called red flood period. In Niamey city, the highest river levels and the longest flooded period ever recorded occurred in 2003, 2010, 2012 and 2013, with heavy casualties and property damage. The reasons for these changes, and the relative role of climate versus land use–land cover (LULC) changes are still debated and are investigated in this paper. The evolution of the Niger red flood in Niamey from 1950 to 2012 is analysed based on long-term records of rainfall (three data sets based on in situ and/or satellite data) and discharge, and a hydrological model. The model is first run with the present LULC conditions in order to analyse solely the effect of rainfall variability. The impact of LULC and drainage area modification is investigated in a second step. The simulations based on the current surface conditions are able to reproduce the observed trend in the red flood occurrence and intensity since the 1980s. This has been verified with three independent rainfall data sets and implies that rainfall variability is the main driver for the red flood intensification observed over the last 30 years. The simulation results since 1953 have revealed that LULC and drainage area changes need to be invoked to explain the changes over a 60-year period

Potential of satellite rainfall products to predict Niger River flood events in Niamey

A dramatic increase in the frequency and intensity of flood events in the city of Niamey, Niger, has been observed in the last decade. The Niger River exhibits a double outflow peak in Niamey. The first peak, is due to the rainfall occurring within about 500 km of Niamey. It has reached high values in recent years and caused four drastic flood events since 2000. This paper analyses the potential of satellite rainfall products combined with hydrological modelling to monitor these floods. The study focuses on the 125,000 km(2) area in the vicinity of Niamey, where local runoff supplies the first flood. Six rainfall products are tested : a gauge only product the Climate Prediction Centre (CPC); two gauge adjusted satellite products the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-Platform Analysis (TMPA 3B42v7) and the CPC regional product African Rainfall Estimate (RFE version 2); and three satellite only products, 3B42RT, the CPC Morphing method (CMORPH) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN). The products are first inter-compared over the region of interest. Differences in terms of rainfall amount, number of rainy days, spacial extension of the rainfall events and frequency distribution of the rain rates are highlighted. The satellite only products provide more rain than the gauge adjusted ones. The hydrological model ISBA-TRIP is forced with the six products and the simulated discharge is analysed and compared With the discharge observed in Niamey over the period 2000 to 2013. The simulations based on the satellite only rainfall produce an excess in the discharge. For flood prediction, the problem can be overcome by a prior adjustment of the products - as done here with probability matching - or by analysing the simulated discharge in terms of percentile or anomaly. All tested products exhibit some skills in detecting the relatively heavy rainfall that preceded the flood and in predicting that the 95th percentile of the discharge (i.e., the flood alert level in Niamey) will be exceeded. These skills are however variable among products and the best overall results are obtained with the TMPA 3B42 products

Evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP continental hydrologic system over the Niger basin using in situ and satellite derived datasets

During the 1970s and 1980s, West Africa has faced extreme climate variations with extended drought conditions. Of particular importance is the Niger basin, since it traverses a large part of the Sahel and is thus a critical source of water for an ever-increasing local population in this semi arid region. However, the understanding of the hydrological processes over this basin is currently limited by the lack of spatially distributed surface water and discharge measurements. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ability of the ISBA-TRIP continental hydrologic system to represent key processes related to the hydrological cycle of the Niger basin. ISBA-TRIP is currently used within a coupled global climate model, so that the scheme must represent the first order processes which are critical for representing the water cycle while retaining a limited number of parameters and a simple representation of the physics. To this end, the scheme uses first-order approximations to account explicitly for the surface river routing, the floodplain dynamics, and the water storage using a deep aquifer reservoir. In the current study, simulations are done at a 0.5 by 0.5° spatial resolution over the 2002–2007 period (in order to take advantage of the recent satellite record and data from the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses project, AMMA). Four configurations of the model are compared to evaluate the separate impacts of the flooding scheme and the aquifer on the water cycle. Moreover, the model is forced by two different rainfall datasets to consider the sensitivity of the model to rainfall input uncertainties. The model is evaluated using in situ discharge measurements as well as satellite derived flood extent, total continental water storage changes and river height changes. The basic analysis of in situ discharges confirms the impact of the inner delta area, known as a significant flooded area, on the discharge, characterized by a strong reduction of the streamflow after the delta compared to the streamflow before the delta. In the simulations, the flooding scheme leads to a non-negligible increase of evaporation over large flooded areas, which decreases the Niger river flow by 15% to 50% in the locations situated after the inner delta as a function of the input rainfall dataset used as forcing. This improves the simulation of the river discharge downstream of the delta, confirming the need for coupling the land surface scheme with the flood model. The deep aquifer reservoir improves Niger low flows and the recession law during the dry season. The comparison with 3 satellite products from the Gravity Recovery and Climated Experiment (GRACE) shows a non negligible contribution of the deeper soil layers to the total storage (34% for groundwater and aquifer). The simulations also show a non negligible sensitivity of the simulations to rain uncertainties especially concerning the discharge. Finally, sensitivity tests show that a good parameterization of routing is required to optimize simulation errors. Indeed, the modification of certain key parameters which can be observed from space (notably river height and flooded zones height changes and extent) has an impact on the model dynamics, thus it is suggested that improving the model input parameters using future developments in remote sensing technologies such as the joint CNES-NASA satellite project SWOT (Surface Water Ocean Topography), which will provide water heights and extentat land surface with an unprecedented 50–100 m resolution and precision

Monitoring Niger River water quality at Niamey area using Escherichia coli and Suspended Particulate Matter

International audienc

La paradoxe du Sahel est il toujours paradoxal ?

International audienc