DataSheet1_Tracking the impacts of precipitation phase changes through the hydrologic cycle in snowy regions: From precipitation to reservoir storage.docx

Cool season precipitation plays a critical role in regional water resource management in the western United States. Throughout the twenty-first century, regional precipitation will be impacted by rising temperatures and changing circulation patterns. Changes to precipitation magnitude remain challenging to project; however, precipitation phase is largely dependent on temperature, and temperature predictions from global climate models are generally in agreement. To understand the implications of this dependence, we investigate projected patterns in changing precipitation phase for mountain areas of the western United States over the twenty-first century and how shifts from snow to rain may impact runoff. We downscale two bias-corrected global climate models for historical and end-century decades with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to estimate precipitation phase and spatial patterns at high spatial resolution (9 km). For future decades, we use the RCP 8.5 scenario, which may be considered a very high baseline emissions scenario to quantify snow season differences over major mountain chains in the western U.S. Under this scenario, the average annual snowfall fraction over the Sierra Nevada decreases by >45% by the end of the century. In contrast, for the colder Rocky Mountains, the snowfall fraction decreases by 29%. Streamflow peaks in basins draining the Sierra Nevada are projected to arrive nearly a month earlier by the end of the century. By coupling WRF with a water resources model, we estimate that California reservoirs will shift towards earlier maximum storage by 1–2 months, suggesting that water management strategies will need to adapt to changes in streamflow magnitude and timing.</p

Peace-Athabasca Delta water surface elevations and slopes mapped from AirSWOT Ka-band InSAR

In late 2023 the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will release unprecedented high-resolution measurements of water surface elevation (WSE) and water surface slope (WSS) globally. SWOT’s exciting Ka-band near-nadir wide-swath interferometric radar (InSAR) technology could transform studies of surface water hydrology, but remains highly experimental. We examine Airborne SWOT (AirSWOT) data acquired twice over Canada’s Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), a large, low-gradient, ecologically important riverine wetland complex. While noisy and susceptible to “dark water” (low-return) data losses, spatially averaged AirSWOT WSE observations reveal a broad-scale water-level decline of ~44 cmn (σ =271 cm) between 9 July and 13 August 2017, similar to a ~56 cm decline (σ=33 cm) recorded by four in situ gauging stations. River flow directions and WSS are correctly inferred following filtering and reach-averaging of AirSWOT data, but ~10 km reaches are essential to retrieve them. July AirSWOT observations suggest steeper WSS down an alternate flow course (Embarras River–Mamawi Creek distributary) of the Athabasca River, consistent with field surveys conducted the following year. This signifies potential for the Athabasca River to avulse northward into Mamawi Lake, with transformative impacts on flooding, sedimentation, ecology, and human activities in the PAD. Although AirSWOT differs from SWOT, we conclude SWOT Ka-band InSAR observations may detect water level changes and avulsion potentials in other low-gradient deltas globally.</p