The last hideout: Abundance patterns of the not-quite-yet extinct mayfly Prosopistoma pennigerum in the Albanian Vjosa River network

1. The mayfly Prosopistoma pennigerum (Müller, 1785) (Insecta: Ephemeroptera) once occurred in many European river networks. However, observations decreased in the last decades and the species can be considered largely extinct throughout Europe due to river alterations. 2. Only three extant populations are known from Cabriel (southern Spain), Volga (Russia) and Vjosa (Albania) rivers. 3. We recorded the species along a 150 km stretch in the Vjosa River in three sampling seasons (spring 2018, fall 2018 and fall 2019), counting up to 302 P. pennigerum per m2, the highest recorded abundance for the species to date. Moreover, we detected traces of environmental DNA in a newly designed targeted eDNA assay. 4. In our modelling approach we define the species’ niche in a theoretically available niche space given by the Vjosa River network and predict a high probability of presence (θ) in downstream located sections of this river. Expected abundances (λ) could be related to a set of environmental variables, importantly to higher discharge and increased sediment dynamics. 5. Simultaneous occurrence of larvae of different sizes at individual sites suggests an asynchronous life cycle, which may be advantageous to cope with the highly dynamic river hydrology. 6. The P. pennigerum population in the Vjosa is of key importance for the species’ global survival

Multi‐scale Integration of Tree Recruitment and Range Dynamics in a Changing Climate

Aim The rate and magnitude of climate‐induced tree range shifts may be influenced by range‐wide variation in recruitment, which acts as a bottleneck in tree range dynamics. Here, we compare range predictions made using standard species distribution models (SDMs) and an integrated metamodelling approach that assimilates data on adult occurrence, seedling recruitment dynamics, and seedling survival under both current and future climate, and evaluate the degree to which information provided by seedling data can improve predictions of range dynamics. Location The interior west region of the United States. Time period 1990–2015. Major taxa studied Five widespread conifer tree species. Methods We used a previously published metamodelling framework to combine information from SDMs of adult tree occurrence and sub‐models describing seedling recruitment dynamics and seedling survival into a single set of predictions for the probability of occurrence for each species. The integrated framework links sub‐models to a SDM to generate cohesive predictions that consider information and uncertainty contained in all datasets. We then compared predictions from the integrated model to SDM predictions. Results Integration of seedling information served primarily to improve characterization of model uncertainty, particularly in regions where recruitment may be limited by temperatures that exceed seedling tolerance. Integration constrained response curves very slightly across most climate gradients, particularly across temperature gradients. These differences were primarily attributable to the isolated effects of temperature on seedling survival and not to recruitment dynamics. Main conclusions Our results indicate that range‐wide variation in recruitment both now and in the future is most uncertain along the edges of occupied regions, which increases uncertainty in projections of future species occurrence along range margins. Overall, the broad‐scale climatic dependence of the regeneration niche appears weaker than that of the adult climatic niche, and this enhances uncertainty in predicting range‐wide responses of these species to climate change

Protecting Biodiversity (in All Its Complexity): New Models and Methods

We are facing a biodiversity crisis at the same time as we are acquiring an unprecedented view of the world's biodiversity. Vast new datasets (e.g., species distributions, traits, phylogenies, and interaction networks) hold knowledge to better comprehend the depths of biodiversity change, reliably anticipate these changes, and inform conservation actions. To harness this information for conservation, we need to integrate the largely independent fields of biodiversity modeling and conservation. We highlight new developments in each respective field, early examples of how they are being brought together, and ideas for a future synthesis such that conservation decisions can be made with fuller awareness of the biodiversity at stake.L.J.P. was supported by a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Fellowship (Conserving the Legacy of Evolution into the Future; AMD-659422-1). This work received funding from the European Research Area Network (ERA-Net) BiodivERsA, Belmont Forum, in conjunction with the national funder Agence National pour la Recherche (FutureWeb: ANR-18-EBI4-0009)

Wildfire-derived pyrogenic carbon modulates riverine organic matter and biofilm enzyme activities in an in-situ flume experiment

Wildfires produce large amounts of pyrogenic carbon (PyC), including charcoal, known for its chemical recalcitrance and sorption affinity for organic molecules. Wildfire-derived PyC can be transported to fluvial networks. Here it may alter dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration and composition as well as microbial biofilm functioning. Employing in-stream flumes with a control vs treatment design (PyC pulse addition), we present evidence that field-aged PyC inputs to rivers can increase dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, and alter DOM composition. Decreased DOM aromaticity indicated by lower SUVA245 (-0.31 units), and higher pH (0.25 units) were associated with changes in enzymatic activities in benthic biofilms, including a lower recalcitrance index (β-glucosidase/phenol oxidase), suggesting preferential usage of recalcitrant over easily available DOM by biofilms. Particulate PyC deposition onto biofilms may further modulate the impacts of PyC due to direct contact with the biofilm matrix

Data from: European ornamental garden flora as an invasion debt under climate change

1.Most naturalized and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalized. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalization for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. 2.To identify predictors of naturalization, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalization success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalization risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalized in Europe. 3.We found that non‐European naturalized range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalization success in Europe. By 2050, naturalization probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. 4.Policy Implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalization success, we identified species with high future naturalization risk and species with high projected increases in naturalization potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritization of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity