A global evaluation of streamflow drought characteristics

How drought is characterised depends on the purpose and region of the study and the available data. In case of regional applications or global comparison a standardisation of the methodology to characterise drought is preferable. In this study the threshold level method in combination with three common pooling procedures is applied to daily streamflow series from a wide range of hydrological regimes. Drought deficit characteristics, such as drought duration and deficit volume, are derived, and the methods are evaluated for their applicability for regional studies. Three different pooling procedures are evaluated: the moving-average procedure (MA-procedure), the inter-event time method (IT-method), and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA). The MA-procedure proved to be a flexible approach for the different series, and its parameter, the averaging interval, can easily be optimised for each stream. However, it modifies the discharge series and might introduce dependency between drought events. For the IT-method it is more difficult to find an optimal value for its parameter, the length of the excess period, in particular for flashy streams. The SPA can only be recommended as pooling procedure for the selection of annual maximum series of deficit characteristics and for very low threshold levels to ensure that events occurring shortly after major events are recognized. Furthermore, a frequency analysis of deficit volume and duration is conducted based on partial duration series of drought events. According to extreme value theory, excesses over a certain limit are Generalized Pareto (GP) distributed. It was found that this model indeed performed better than or equally to other distribution models. In general, the GP-model could be used for streams of all regime types. However, for intermittent streams, zero-flow periods should be treated as censored data. For catchments with frost during the winter season, summer and winter droughts have to be analysed separately

Streamflow forecast sensitivity to air temperature forecast calibration for 139 Norwegian catchments

In this study, we used meteorological ensemble forecasts as input to hydrological models to quantify the uncertainty in forecasted streamflow, with a particular focus on the effect of temperature forecast calibration on the streamflow ensemble forecast skill. In catchments with seasonal snow cover, snowmelt is an important flood-generating process. Hence, high-quality air temperature data are important to accurately forecast streamflows. The sensitivity of streamflow ensemble forecasts to the calibration of temperature ensemble forecasts was investigated using ensemble forecasts of temperature from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) covering a period of nearly 3 years, from 1 March 2013 to 31 December 2015. To improve the skill and reduce biases of the temperature ensembles, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) provided parameters for ensemble calibration, derived using a standard quantile mapping method where HIRLAM, a high-resolution regional weather prediction model, was used as reference. A lumped HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) model, distributed on 10 elevation zones, was used to estimate the streamflow. The results show that temperature ensemble calibration affected both temperature and streamflow forecast skill, but differently depending on season and region. We found a close to 1:1 relationship between temperature and streamflow skill change for the spring season, whereas for autumn and winter large temperature skill improvements were not reflected in the streamflow forecasts to the same degree. This can be explained by streamflow being less affected by subzero temperature improvements, which accounted for the biggest temperature biases and corrections during autumn and winter. The skill differs between regions. In particular, there is a cold bias in the forecasted temperature during autumn and winter along the coast, enabling a large improvement by calibration. The forecast skill was partly related to elevation differences and catchment area. Overall, it is evident that temperature forecasts are important for streamflow forecasts in climates with seasonal snow cover.</p

COST 733 - WG4: Applications of weather type classification

The main objective of the COST Action 733 is to achieve a general numerical method for assessing, comparing and classifying typical weather situations in the European regions. To accomplish this goal, different workgroups are established, each with their specific aims: WG1: Existing methods and applications (finished); WG2: Implementation and development of weather types classification methods; WG3: Comparison of selected weather types classifications; WG4: Testing methods for various applications. The main task of Workgroup 4 (WG4) in COST 733 implies the testing of the selected weather type methods for various classifications. In more detail, WG4 focuses on the following topics:• Selection of dedicated applications (using results from WG1), • Performance of the selected applications using available weather types provided by WG2, • Intercomparison of the application results as a results of different methods • Final assessment of the results and uncertainties, • Presentation and release of results to the other WGs and external interested • Recommend specifications for a new (common) method WG2 Introduction In order to address these specific aims, various applications are selected and WG4 is divided in subgroups accordingly: 1.Air quality 2. Hydrology (& Climatological mapping) 3. Forest fires 4. Climate change and variability 5. Risks and hazards Simultaneously, the special attention is paid to the several wide topics concerning some other COST Actions such as: phenology (COST725), biometeorology (COST730), agriculture (COST 734) and mesoscale modelling and air pollution (COST728). Sub-groups are established to find advantages and disadvantages of different classification methods for different applications. Focus is given to data requirements, spatial and temporal scale, domain area, specifi

A European Drought Reference Database: Design and Online Implementation

This report presents the structure and status of the online European Drought Reference (EDR) database. This website provides detailed historical information regarding major historical European drought events. Each drought event is summarized using climatological drought indices, hydrological drought indices, and user-generated drought impacts. The database currently highlights 11 drought events, from 1959 to 2007. In addition, an online tool is provided to query and view climatological drought indices for any day in the available historical record. The EDR database is tool designed to compile drought statistics in a usable manner and will continually improve as more data becomes available. It is our hope that the EDR database can become a standard reference tool which improve public awareness of drought issues and stimulate data collection, sharing, and analysis

Simplifying the clinical classification of polymerase gamma (POLG) disease based on age of onset; studies using a cohort of 155 cases

Background: Variants in POLG are one of the most common causes of inherited mitochondrial disease. Phenotypic classification of POLG disease has evolved haphazardly making it complicated and difficult to implement in everyday clinical practise. The aim of our study was to simplify the classification and facilitate better clinical recognition. / Methods: A multinational, retrospective study using data from 155 patients with POLG variants recruited from seven European countries. / Results: We describe the spectrum of clinical features associated with POLG variants in the largest known cohort of patients. While clinical features clearly form a continuum, stratifying patients simply according to age of onset—onset prior to age 12 years; onset between 12 and 40 years and onset after the age of 40 years, permitted us to identify clear phenotypic and prognostic differences. Prior to 12 years of age, liver involvement (87%), seizures (84%), and feeding difficulties (84%) were the major features. For those with onset between 12 and 40 years, ataxia (90%), peripheral neuropathy (84%), and seizures (71%) predominated, while for those with onset over 40 years, ptosis (95%), progressive external ophthalmoplegia (89%), and ataxia (58%) were the major clinical features. The earlier the onset the worse the prognosis. Patients with epilepsy and those with compound heterozygous variants carried significantly worse prognosis. / Conclusion: Based on our data, we propose a simplified POLG disease classification, which can be used to guide diagnostic investigations and predict disease course

The impact of gender, puberty, and pregnancy in patients with POLG disease

OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of gender, puberty, and pregnancy on the expression of POLG disease, one of the most common mitochondrial diseases known. METHODS: Clinical, laboratory, and genetic data were collected retrospectively from 155 patients with genetically confirmed POLG disease recruited from seven European countries. We used the available data to study the impact of gender, puberty, and pregnancy on disease onset and deterioration. RESULTS: We found that disease onset early in life was common in both sexes but there was also a second peak in females around the time of puberty. Further, pregnancy had a negative impact with 10 of 14 women (71%) experiencing disease onset or deterioration during pregnancy. INTERPRETATION: Gender clearly influences the expression of POLG disease. While onset very early in life was common in both males and females, puberty in females appeared associated both with disease onset and increased disease activity. Further, both disease onset and deterioration, including seizure aggravation and status epilepticus, appeared to be associated with pregnancy. Thus, whereas disease activity appears maximal early in life with no subsequent peaks in males, both menarche and pregnancy appear associated with disease onset or worsening in females. This suggests that hormonal changes may be a modulating factor

COST 733 – WG4: Applications of weather type classifications

Presentación realizada para: European Geosciences Union General Assembly celebrado del 19-24 de abril de 2009 en Viena

The European 2015 drought from a hydrological perspective

In 2015 large parts of Europe were affected by drought. In this paper, we analyze the hydrological footprint (dynamic development over space and time) of the drought of 2015 in terms of both severity (magnitude) and spatial extent and compare it to the extreme drought of 2003. Analyses are based on a range of low flow and hydrological drought indices derived for about 800 streamflow records across Europe, collected in a community effort based on a common protocol. We compare the hydrological footprints of both events with the meteorological footprints, in order to learn from similarities and differences of both perspectives and to draw conclusions for drought management. The region affected by hydrological drought in 2015 differed somewhat from the drought of 2003, with its center located more towards eastern Europe. In terms of low flow magnitude, a region surrounding the Czech Republic was the most affected, with summer low flows that exhibited return intervals of 100 years and more. In terms of deficit volumes, the geographical center of the event was in southern Germany, where the drought lasted a particularly long time. A detailed spatial and temporal assessment of the 2015 event showed that the particular behavior in these regions was partly a result of diverging wetness preconditions in the studied catchments. Extreme droughts emerged where preconditions were particularly dry. In regions with wet preconditions, low flow events developed later and tended to be less severe. For both the 2003 and 2015 events, the onset of the hydrological drought was well correlated with the lowest flow recorded during the event (low flow magnitude), pointing towards a potential for early warning of the severity of streamflow drought. Time series of monthly drought indices (both streamflow- and climate-based indices) showed that meteorological and hydrological events developed differently in space and time, both in terms of extent and severity (magnitude). These results emphasize that drought is a hazard which leaves different footprints on the various components of the water cycle at different spatial and temporal scales. The difference in the dynamic development of meteorological and hydrological drought also implies that impacts on various water-use sectors and river ecology cannot be informed by climate indices alone. Thus, an assessment of drought impacts on water resources requires hydrological data in addition to drought indices based solely on climate data. The transboundary scale of the event also suggests that additional efforts need to be undertaken to make timely pan-European hydrological assessments more operational in the future