Energization of Ions in near-Earth current sheet disruptions

In this study we examine observations made by AMPTE/CCE of energetic ion bursts during seven substorm periods when the satellite was located near the neutral sheet, and CCE observed the disruption cross-tail current in situ. We compare ion observations to analytic calculations of particle acceleration. We find that the acceleration region size, which we assume to be essentially the current disruption region, to be on the order of 1 R(sub E). Events exhibiting weak acceleration had either relatively small acceleration regions (apparently associated with pseudobreakup activity on the ground) or relatively small changes in the local magnetic field (suggesting that the magnitude of the local current disruption region was limited). These results add additional support for the view that the particle bursts observed during turbulent current sheet disruptions are due to inductive acceleration of ions

Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model

The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock-angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle

Double peak structure and diamagnetic wings of the magnetotail current sheet

International audienceRecent Cluster observations in the magnetotail at about 20 Earth radii downtail have unambiguously shown that sometimes the current sheet is bifurcated, i.e. it is divided in two layers. We report numerical simulations of the ion dynamics in a quasi-neutral sheet in the presence of magnetic turbulence, which is often observed in the magnetotail, and for various anisotropies of the ion distribution function. Ions are injected at the boundary of the simulation box with a velocity distribution corresponding to a shifted Maxwellian. The simulation parameters, are adjusted to be similar to those of Cluster observations. We find that even for moderate fluctuation levels, the computed current density profile develops a double peak, in agreement with the observations. By varying the anisotropy of the injected distribution function, we are able to reproduce, for weak anisotropy, the magnetic field overshoots which are sometimes observed prior to magnetotail traversals. Therefore, we suggest an ion current profile with a double peak due to magnetic turbulence, and with possible diamagnetic current wings, present in the case of weak anisotropy of the ion distribution function

Magnetic turbulence and particle dynamics in the Earth's magnetotail

International audienceThe influence of magnetic turbulence in the near-Earth magnetotail on ion motion is investigated by numerical simulation. The magnetotail current sheet is modelled as a magnetic field reversal with a normal magnetic field com-ponent Bn , plus a three-dimensional spectrum of magnetic fluctuations dB which represents the observed magnetic turbulence. The dawn-dusk electric field Ey is also considered. A test particle simulation is performed using different values of Bn and of the fluctuation level dB/B0. We show that when the magnetic fluctuations are taken into account, the particle dynamics is deeply affected, giving rise to an increase in the cross tail transport, ion heating, and current sheet thickness. For strong enough turbulence, the current splits in two layers, in agreement with recent Cluster observations

Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support

Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections using the WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model

The combination of the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA‐ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA‐ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth\u27s magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock‐angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.Abstract © AG

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010-2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements at STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint