Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability

Using tick-by-tick data of the dollar-yen and euro-dollar exchange rates recorded in the actual transaction platform, a "run" -- continuous increases or decreases in deal prices for the past several ticks -- does have some predictable information on the direction of the next price movement. Deal price movements, that are consistent with order flows, tend to continue a run once it started i.e., conditional probability of deal prices tend to move in the same direction as the last several times in a row is higher than 0.5. However, quote prices do not show such tendency of a run. Hence, a random walk hypothesis is refuted in a simple test of a run using the tick by tick data. In addition, a longer continuous increase of the price tends to be followed by larger reversal. The findings suggest that those market participants who have access to real-time, tick-by-tick transaction data may have an advantage in predicting the exchange rate movement. Findings here also lend support to the momentum trading strategy.

The AACN Synergy Model for Patient Care ニ カンスル キンネン ノ ドウコウ

看護実践は、より具体的で客観的評価が可能な中範囲理論の活用が求められてきた。英語圏ではThe AACN Synergy Model for Patient Care(以下Synergy model)が、様々な看護実践で活用されている。本研究ではSynergy modelに関する近年の文献を調査し、今後の日本の看護実践への示唆と研究課題を明らかにする。調査対象とした文献は、1990年から2017年の間で選定した。Pub Med、CINAHLで「synergy」「model」「nursing」をキーワードに文献を検索した。検討対象とした文献は30件であった。報告内容によって、実践評価、看護教育、看護研究の3カテゴリーに分類できた。看護実践を定量評価した研究だけではなく、概念枠組みとして活用し、新たな尺度や教育方法の開発に関する研究報告があった。英語圏では、Synergy modelは看護の質を向上させる中範囲理論として活用されている。しかし、日本への導入にあたっては文化的要素を含め、今後はさらなる検討が必要である。Nursing practice has been required to utilize a middle-range theory that allows more specific and objective evaluation. In English-speaking countries, the AACN Synergy Model for Patient Care (Synergy model) is utilized in various nursing practices. In this research, by investigating recent literature on the Synergy model, we clarify suggestions and research subjects for nursing practice in Japan. The literature to be surveyed was selected from between 1990 and 2017. The literature was searched by Pub Med and CINAHL with “synergy” “model” “nursing” as a key word. There were 30 articles to be analyzed. Depending on the content of the report, they were classified into three categories: practical evaluation, nursing education, and nursing research. The research quantitatively evaluated nursing practice, and it was also utilized as a conceptual framework; and there is also a research included reporting on the development of new scales and educational methods. In English-speaking countries, the Synergy model is used as a middle-range theory to improve the quality of nursing practices. However, in order to introduce it to Japan, it is necessary to conduct further studies, including the study on the cultural factors

A novel indole compound MA-35 attenuates renal fibrosis by inhibiting both TNF-α and TGF-β1 pathways

Renal fibrosis is closely related to chronic inflammation and is under the control of epigenetic regulations. Because the signaling of transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) play key roles in progression of renal fibrosis, dual blockade of TGF-β1 and TNF-α is desired as its therapeutic approach. Here we screened small molecules showing anti-TNF-α activity in the compound library of indole derivatives. 11 out of 41 indole derivatives inhibited the TNF-α effect. Among them, Mitochonic Acid 35 (MA-35), 5-(3, 5-dimethoxybenzyloxy)-3-indoleacetic acid, showed the potent effect. The anti-TNF-α activity was mediated by inhibiting IκB kinase phosphorylation, which attenuated the LPS/GaIN-induced hepatic inflammation in the mice. Additionally, MA-35 concurrently showed an anti-TGF-β1 effect by inhibiting Smad3 phosphorylation, resulting in the downregulation of TGF-β1-induced fibrotic gene expression. In unilateral ureter obstructed mouse kidney, which is a renal fibrosis model, MA-35 attenuated renal inflammation and fibrosis with the downregulation of inflammatory cytokines and fibrotic gene expressions. Furthermore, MA-35 inhibited TGF-β1-induced H3K4me1 histone modification of the fibrotic gene promoter, leading to a decrease in the fibrotic gene expression. MA-35 affects multiple signaling pathways involved in the fibrosis and may recover epigenetic modification; therefore, it could possibly be a novel therapeutic drug for fibrosis

Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 epidemic in Japan: vaccine effectiveness real-time surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 (VERSUS)

Background: Evaluating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) domestically is crucial for assessing and determining national vaccination policy. This study aimed to evaluate VE of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in Japan. Methods: We conducted a multicenter test-negative case-control study. The study comprised indivi-duals aged ≥16 visiting medical facilities with COVID-19-related signs or symptoms from 1 January to 26 June 2022, when Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 were dominant nationwide. We evaluated VE of primary and booster vaccination against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and relative VE of booster compared with primary.Results: We enrolled 7,931 episodes, including 3,055 test positive. The median age was 39, 48.0% were male, and 20.5% had underlying medical conditions. In individuals aged 16 to 64, VE of primary vaccination within 90 days was 35.6% (95% CI, 19.0–48.8%). After booster, VE increased to 68.7% (60.6–75.1%). In individuals aged ≥65, VE of primary and booster was 31.2% (−44.0–67.1%) and 76.5% (46.7–89.7%), respectively. Relative VE of booster compared with primary vaccination was 52.9% (41.0– 62.5%) in individuals aged 16 to 64 and 65.9% (35.7–81.9%) in individuals aged ≥65.Conclusions: During BA.1 and BA.2 epidemic in Japan, mRNA COVID-19 primary vaccination provided modest protection. Booster vaccination was necessary to protect against symptomatic infections