Potencial técnico e econômico para a produção de Fischer-Tropsch Diesel a partir de biomassa (FT-BTL) associada à captura de carbono no Brasil

In order to deal with the criticality of diesel fuel supply, due to a refining system incapable of attending the growing demand and the ever more restrictive specifications in act, the deployment of high quality biomass based diesel stands relevant to the national framework. This study aims to identify the potential for the deployment of diesel biofuel production based on biomass thermochemical conversion through Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis in Brazil. This study conducted technical and economic analysis of the selected technological route, in order to estimate in what extension and at what costs could biomass based diesel contribute to the national diesel supply, and to the promotion of emission reductions in the energy sector and the transportation subsector. This study identified a theoretical potential of biomass based diesel production capable of attending 11,9% of diesel supply, and 72,4% of diesel imports. A clear advantage of this route is the fact that it is easy to add carbon capture, which was evaluated as intrinsic to the process. Furthermore, this study argues that, even if not cost-competitive without the necessary climate and energy policies, the innovative technological route offers important contributions to the reduction of the dependency on imports, resulting in positive impacts over the Brazilian commercial balance.Para lidar com a criticidade da oferta, verificada em função de um parque refinador que não acompanhou o crescimento da demanda e das cada vez mais restritivas especificações em vigência, o desenvolvimento de diesel biocombustível de alta qualidade mostra-se relevante para o cenário nacional. O objetivo deste estudo é identificar o potencial de desenvolvimento da produção de diesel biocombustível a partir da conversão termoquímica da biomassa via Síntese de Fischer-Tropsch no Brasil. Foram conduzidas avaliações técnicas e econômicas da rota tecnológica selecionada, com o ensejo de estimar em que medida e a que custos a produção desse biocombustível seria capaz de contribuir para a oferta de diesel no país, além de promover reduções no teor de emissões relativos ao setor energético e subsetor de transportes. Identificou-se um potencial teórico de produção de diesel biocombustível capaz de atender 11,9% da demanda e 72,4% do teor de importações. Uma vantagem desta rota é a facilidade de incorporar-lhe a captura de carbono, que se mostrou intrínseca ao processo. Verificou-se ainda que, embora a tecnologia inovadora não se mostre custo-competitiva sem o incentivo de políticas climáticas e energéticas, existe potencial importante de contribuição para redução da crescente dependência de importações, gerando impactos positivos sobre a balança comercial brasileira

BLOEM: A spatially explicit model of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, applied to Brazil

Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large-scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It, therefore, needs to be studied carefully. The Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) presented here allows for assessing different bioenergy pathways while encompassing various dimensions that influence their optimal deployment. In this study, BLOEM was applied to the Brazilian context by coupling it with the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model. This allowed investigating the most cost-effective ways of attending future bioenergy supply projections and studying the role of recovered degraded pasture lands in improving land availability in a sustainable and competitive manner. The results show optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs results in different outcomes. It also indicates that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The systemic approach of BLOEM provides spatial results, highlighting the trade-offs between crop allocation, land use and the logistics dynamics between production, conversion, and demand, providing valuable insights for regional and national climate policy design. This makes it a useful tool for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways

Reducing sectoral hard to abate emissions to limit reliance of Carbon Dioxide Removal in 1.5°C scenarios

Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas targets is often achieved by compensating residual greenhouse gas emissions in the hard to abate (HtA) sectors, with carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. However, large-scale application of CDR may lead to environmental, technical and social concerns. The extent to which residual emissions can be reduced in the industry, agriculture, buildings and transport sector is analysed based on integrated assessment of scenarios with ambitious measures in the HtA sectors. Two scenarios that explore demand and technology-focused approaches show that by reducing residual emissions, the CDR ceiling can be significantly lowered (23-30%) compared to reference in the net-zero year. The agriculture sector plays a critical role in this given the large share of residual emissions. The additional measures allow to create a 1.5°C scenario in which crop-based bioenergy use is limited to 40 EJ/yr, therefore within sustainable limits, and afforestation can be limited to abandoned cropland and grassland

ENGAGE post-Glasgow long-term strategies

<p><strong>Please do not request the download through Zenodo. Instead download the data set here: </strong><a href="https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/engage/#/downloads"><strong>https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/engage/#/downloads</strong></a><strong>.</strong></p><p>This set of scenarios integrates global pathways into a coherent set of low-carbon mid-century strategies, assessing current policies, NDCs and national mid-century strategies and their consistency with global pathways to 1.5/2°C warming levels and identifying the most effective policies in different countries and sectors.</p&gt

The 2021 SSP scenarios of the IMAGE 3.2 model

The SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenarios are intensively used in climate and environmental research to explore uncertain future developments and possible response strategies. This paper briefly describes an update of the SSP scenarios generated by the IMAGE 3.2 model. The paper presents the changes in method and key scenario updates. As such, it serves as a key reference for the updated SSP scenarios with IMAGE 3.2

The 2021 SSP scenarios of the IMAGE 3.2 model

The SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenarios are intensively used in climate and environmental research to explore uncertain future developments and possible response strategies. This paper briefly describes an update of the SSP scenarios generated by the IMAGE 3.2 model. The paper presents the changes in method and key scenario updates. As such, it serves as a key reference for the updated SSP scenarios with IMAGE 3.2