Evaluation of a Regional Climate Model for the Upper Blue Nile Region

The fourth version of the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) model is evaluated for its performance over Upper Blue Nile River Basin Region (UBNRBR). The model rainfall captured the observed spatial and temporal variability of rainfall over the basin during the spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) seasons. The simulation dataset is generated using the RegCM4 for the period 1982–2009. The UBNRBR is first divided into 14 homogeneous regions using criteria including Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF), spatial correlation and topographical features. Spatially averaged observed and simulated rainfall time series are then generated and analyzed for each region. Standardized rainfall anomalies of the observations and the simulated data are highly correlated over most of central regions, while a weak correlation is found over the east border regions of the basin. The dominant modes of rainfall variability are identified using REOF. The first leading patterns of rainfall and upper wind (averaged between 100 and 300 hpa) are highly correlated and exhibit similar features between simulated and observed dataset over the basin. Similarly, the first loading pattern of low level wind (averaged between 850 and 1000 hpa) exhibits a dipole structure across the southwestern and southeastern regions of the UBNRBR. The correlations with significant rotated principal components (RPCs) across gridded gauge, and model rainfall fields with that of low- and upper level winds show the presence of significant relationship (correlation exceeding ~0.6). Overall, that the RegCM4 shows a good performance in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation over UBNRBR

Analysis of the technical efficiency of rice production in Fogera district of Ethiopia: a stochastic frontier approach

The aim of this paper is to analyze the technical efficiency of rice production in Fogera District of Ethiopia. To do so, the stochastic frontier approach was employed on a data collected from 200 sample households in the 2015/16 production year. As a result, it was found out that except for manure, all variables in the Cobb-Douglass stochastic frontier model, which includes land, fertilizer, oxen, seed, and labor, were positively and significantly related to rice production. The average technical efficiency score predicted from the estimated Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function was calculated to be 77.2 percent, implying that there was a room for rice yield increment by improving the resource use efficiency of households. The study also revealed that the provision of extension services, training on rice product improvement, experience on rice farming, agrochemicals, and education tend to be positively and significantly related to technical efficiency while household size was negatively and significantly related. Thus, strengthening the extension service provision and the training on rice yield increment, campaigns to disseminate rice farming experiences, and an increase in the supply of agrochemicals were crucial to improve the technical efficiency of rice production in the study area.Keywords: Ethiopia, Fogera District, Technical Efficiency, Cobb-Douglas Production Function, Stochastic Frontier ApproachJEL classification: D2

Analysis of technical efficiency of rice production in fogera district of Ethiopia: A stochastic frontier approach

The possible way to improve production and productivity with a given input mix and available technology is to improve efficiency of resource use. For this purpose examining the technical efficiency of the production process is very crucial. Thus, the aim of this paper is to analyze the technical efficiency of rice production in Fogera District of Ethiopia. To do so, stochastic frontier approach is employed on a data which is collected from 200 sample households in 2015/16 production year. The sampling techniques used to get those 200 sample households is a multistage sampling where in the first stage five Kebeles were purposively selected, in the second stage two Gotes randomly selected from each Kebeles and in the third stage 200 households were selected using simple random sampling technique. Doing so, it was found that except manure all the variables in the Cobb-Douglass stochastic frontier model which includes; land, fertilizer, oxen, seed and labor are found to be positively and significantly related to rice production. The average technical efficiency score predicted from the estimated Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function is found to be 77.2% implying that there is a room for rice yield increment by improving the resource use efficiency of the households. The study also revealed that; provision of extension service, training on rice product improvement, experience on rice farming; agrochemical and education tend to be positively and significantly related to technical efficiency while household size is negatively and significantly related. Thus, strengthening extension service provision and training on rice yield increment, campaigns to disseminate rice farming experiences and increasing the supply of agrochemicals are crucial to improve the technical efficiency of rice production in the study area

Analysis of technical efficiency of rice production in fogera district of Ethiopia: A stochastic frontier approach

The possible way to improve production and productivity with a given input mix and available technology is to improve efficiency of resource use. For this purpose examining the technical efficiency of the production process is very crucial. Thus, the aim of this paper is to analyze the technical efficiency of rice production in Fogera District of Ethiopia. To do so, stochastic frontier approach is employed on a data which is collected from 200 sample households in 2015/16 production year. The sampling techniques used to get those 200 sample households is a multistage sampling where in the first stage five Kebeles were purposively selected, in the second stage two Gotes randomly selected from each Kebeles and in the third stage 200 households were selected using simple random sampling technique. Doing so, it was found that except manure all the variables in the Cobb-Douglass stochastic frontier model which includes; land, fertilizer, oxen, seed and labor are found to be positively and significantly related to rice production. The average technical efficiency score predicted from the estimated Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function is found to be 77.2% implying that there is a room for rice yield increment by improving the resource use efficiency of the households. The study also revealed that; provision of extension service, training on rice product improvement, experience on rice farming; agrochemical and education tend to be positively and significantly related to technical efficiency while household size is negatively and significantly related. Thus, strengthening extension service provision and training on rice yield increment, campaigns to disseminate rice farming experiences and increasing the supply of agrochemicals are crucial to improve the technical efficiency of rice production in the study area

Analysis of technical efficiency of rice production in fogera district of Ethiopia: A stochastic frontier approach

The possible way to improve production and productivity with a given input mix and available technology is to improve efficiency of resource use. For this purpose examining the technical efficiency of the production process is very crucial. Thus, the aim of this paper is to analyze the technical efficiency of rice production in Fogera District of Ethiopia. To do so, stochastic frontier approach is employed on a data which is collected from 200 sample households in 2015/16 production year. The sampling techniques used to get those 200 sample households is a multistage sampling where in the first stage five Kebeles were purposively selected, in the second stage two Gotes randomly selected from each Kebeles and in the third stage 200 households were selected using simple random sampling technique. Doing so, it was found that except manure all the variables in the Cobb-Douglass stochastic frontier model which includes; land, fertilizer, oxen, seed and labor are found to be positively and significantly related to rice production. The average technical efficiency score predicted from the estimated Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier production function is found to be 77.2% implying that there is a room for rice yield increment by improving the resource use efficiency of the households. The study also revealed that; provision of extension service, training on rice product improvement, experience on rice farming; agrochemical and education tend to be positively and significantly related to technical efficiency while household size is negatively and significantly related. Thus, strengthening extension service provision and training on rice yield increment, campaigns to disseminate rice farming experiences and increasing the supply of agrochemicals are crucial to improve the technical efficiency of rice production in the study area

Prevalence and determinants of anemia among children aged from 6 to 59 months in Liberia: a multilevel analysis of the 2019/20 Liberia demographic and health survey data

BackgroundAnemia is a serious worldwide public health issue that happens at any stage of life but primarily affects young kids and pregnant mothers. Although anemia has a significant impact on child health, its magnitude and associated factors in children aged 6–59 months have not been yet studied in Liberia. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify the prevalence and determinants of anemia in children aged 6–59 months in Liberia.MethodsThe data was extracted from Liberia Demographic and Health Survey, conducted from October 2019 to February 2020. The sample was obtained using a stratified two-stage cluster sampling technique. An overall weighted sample of 2,524 kids aged 6–59 months was involved in the final analysis. We used Stata version 14 software for data extraction and analysis. A multilevel logistic regression model was employed to identify factors associated with anemia. Variables with a P-value of <0.2 in the bivariable logistic regression analysis were selected as candidates for multivariable analysis. In multivariable analysis, the adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with the 95% confidence interval (CI) were declared as the determinants of anemia.ResultsThe prevalence of anemia in children aged 6–59 months in Liberia was 70.8% [95% CI: 68.9%, 72.5%]. Of these, 3.4% were severe anemia, 38.3% were moderate anemia and 29.1% were mild anemia. Children aged 6–23 and 24–42 months, being stunted, children from households with unimproved toilet facilities, children from households with unimproved water sources, and lack of media (television) exposure were significantly associated with higher odds of anemia. However, using mosquito bed nets, living in the Northwestern and Northcentral region were significantly associated with lower odds of anemia among children 6–59 months.ConclusionIn this study, anemia in kids aged 6–59 months in Liberia was a main public health issue. Age of the child, stunting, toilet facility, water source, exposure to television, mosquito bed net use, and region were significant determinants of anemia. Therefore, it is better to provide intervention for the early detection and management of stunted children. Similarly, interventions should be strengthened to address unimproved water sources, unimproved toilet facilities, and lack of media exposure

Sleep quality and associated factors among university students in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis study

BackgroundPoor sleep quality significantly impacts academic performance in university students. However, inconsistent and inconclusive results were found in a study on sleep among university students in several African nations. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence and associated factors of poor sleep quality among university students in Africa.MethodsThe databases PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Science Direct, African Journal Online, and Google Scholar were searched to identify articles. A total of 35 primary articles from 11 African countries were assessed and included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Data were extracted by using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and exported to STATA version 14 for analysis. The I2 test was used to assess the statistical heterogeneity. A random effect meta-analysis model was employed with 95% confidence intervals. Funnel plots analysis and Egger regression tests were used to check the presence of publication bias. A subgroup analysis and a sensitivity analysis were done.ResultsA total of 16,275 study participants from 35 studies were included in this meta-analysis and systematic review. The overall pooled prevalence of poor sleep quality among university students in Africa was 63.31% (95% CI: 56.91-65.71) I2 = 97.2. The subgroup analysis shows that the combined prevalence of poor sleep quality in East, North, West, and South Africa were 61.31 (95% CI: 56.91-65.71), 62.23 (95% CI: 54.07-70.39), 54.43 (95% CI: 47.39-61.48), and 69.59 (95% CI: 50.39-88.80) respectively. Being stressed (AOR= 2.39; 95% CI: 1.63 to 3.51), second academic year (AOR= 3.10; 95% CI: 2.30 to 4.19), use of the electronic device at bedtime (AOR= 3.97 95% CI: 2.38 to 6.61)) and having a comorbid chronic illness (AOR = 2.71; 95% CI: 1.08, 6.82) were factors significantly associated with poor sleep quality.ConclusionThis study shows that there is a high prevalence of poor sleep quality among university students in Africa. Being stressed, in the second year, using electronic devices at bedtime, and having chronic illness were factors associated with poor sleep quality. Therefore, addressing contributing factors and implementing routine screenings are essential to reduce the burden of poor sleep quality.Systematic Review Registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/, identifier CRD42023493140

Prevalence of Trachoma from 66 Impact Surveys in 52 Woredas of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' and Sidama Regions of Ethiopia, 2017-2019.

PURPOSE: Trachoma is endemic in Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' (SNNP) and Sidama regions of Ethiopia. We aimed to measure the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) among children aged 1 - 9 years and the prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis (TT) unknown to the health system among people aged ≥15 years following interventions for trachoma in 52 woredas of SNNP and Sidama regions. METHODS: From 2017 - 2019, 66 two-stage cluster sampling cross-sectional population-based surveys were carried out in 52 woredas (third-level administrative divisions) using a standardized World Health Organization-recommended survey methodology. This included one impact survey in 40 woredas, two consecutive impact surveys in 10 woredas and three consecutive impact surveys in two woredas. Water, sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) access was assessed using a modified version of the United Nations Children's Fund/WHO Joint Monitoring Programme questionnaire. RESULTS: By the end of this survey series, 15 (23%) of the woredas had met the active trachoma elimination threshold (TF prevalence <5%) and 12 (18%) had met the TT threshold (TT ≤ 0.2%). Regarding WASH coverage, 20% of households had access to an improved drinking water source within a 30-min journey and 3% had an improved latrine. There was strong evidence that TF was less common in 4 - 6-year-olds and 7 - 9-year-olds than 1 - 3-year-olds. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings, further antibiotic mass drug administration is required in 37 woredas and active TT case finding is needed in 40 woredas. In these surveys, access to WASH facilities was very low; WASH improvements are required

A randomized trial of AmBisome monotherapy and AmBisome and miltefosine combination to treat visceral leishmaniasis in HIV co-infected patients in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infected patients requires special case management. AmBisome monotherapy at 40 mg/kg is recommended by the World Health Organization. The objective of the study was to assess if a combination of a lower dose of AmBisome with miltefosine would show acceptable efficacy at the end of treatment. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An open-label, non-comparative randomized trial of AmBisome (30 mg/kg) with miltefosine (100 mg/day for 28 days), and AmBisome monotherapy (40 mg/kg) was conducted in Ethiopian VL patients co-infected with HIV (NCT02011958). A sequential design was used with a triangular continuation region. The primary outcome was parasite clearance at day 29, after the first round of treatment. Patients with clinical improvement but without parasite clearance at day 29 received a second round of the allocated treatment. Efficacy was evaluated again at day 58, after completion of treatment. Recruitment was stopped after inclusion of 19 and 39 patients in monotherapy and combination arms respectively, as per pre-specified stopping rules. At D29, intention-to-treat efficacy in the AmBisome arm was 70% (95% CI 45-87%) in the unadjusted analysis, and 50% (95% CI 27-73%) in the adjusted analysis, while in the combination arm, it was 81% (95% CI 67-90%) and 67% (95% CI 48-82%) respectively. At D58, the adjusted efficacy was 55% (95% CI 32-78%) in the monotherapy arm, and 88% (95% CI 79-98%) in the combination arm. No major safety concerns related to the study medication were identified. Ten SAEs were observed within the treatment period, and 4 deaths unrelated to the study medication. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The extended treatment strategy with the combination regimen showed the highest documented efficacy in HIV-VL patients; these results support a recommendation of this regimen as first-line treatment strategy for HIV-VL patients in eastern Africa. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT02011958

Accuracy, acceptability and feasibility of photography for use in trachoma surveys: a mixed methods study in Tanzania

BACKGROUND: Photography could be used to train individuals to diagnose trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) as trachoma prevalence decreases and to ensure accurate field TF grading in trachoma prevalence surveys. We compared photograph and field TF grading and determined the acceptability and feasibility of eyelid photography to community members and trachoma survey trainers. METHODS: A total of 100 children ages 1-9 y were examined for TF in two Maasai villages in Tanzania. Two images of the right everted superior tarsal conjunctiva of each child were taken with a smartphone and a digital single-lens reflex (DSLR) camera. Two graders independently graded all photos. Focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with community members and Tropical Data trainers. RESULTS: Of 391 photos, one-fifth were discarded as ungradable. Compared with field grading, photo grading consistently underdiagnosed TF. Compared with field grading, DSLR photo grading resulted in a higher prevalence and sensitivity than smartphone photo grading. FGDs indicated that communities and trainers found photography acceptable and preferred smartphones to DSLR in terms of practicalities, but image quality was of paramount importance for trainers. CONCLUSIONS: Photography is acceptable and feasible, but further work is needed to ensure high-quality images that enable accurate and consistent grading before being routinely implemented in trachoma surveys