Estimating Quarterly GDP for the Interwar UK Economy: An Application to the Employment Function

Chow and Lin (1971) set out a procedure for the generation of higher frequency estimates for series for which data is available at a low frequency using data on a related series at the higher frequency. In this paper we set out a simple algorithm for the generation of quarterly estimates for a series for which annual data is available and quarterly data is available for the related series. We apply this to data for interwar Gross Domestic Product using Industrial Production as the related series. Using this approach we generate quarterly GDP figures for the period 1920.1 to 1938.4. This series is valuable in that it can be used to estimate a cointegrating relationship between employment, real wages and aggregate output which is not possible when we use industrial production directly as our quarterly measure of aggregate demand

Modified algesimeter provides accurate depth measurements

Algesimeter which incorporates a standard sensory needle with a sensitive micrometer, measures needle point depth penetration in pain tolerance research. This algesimeter provides an inexpensive, precise instrument with assured validity of recordings in those biomedical areas with a requirement for repeated pain detection or ascertaining pain sensitivity

Representations of the homotopy surface category of a simply connected space

We introduce the homotopy surface category of a space which generalizes the 1+1-dimensional cobordism category of circles and surfaces to the situation where one introduces a background space. We explain how for a simply connected background space, monoidal functors from this category to vector spaces can be interpreted in terms of Frobenius algebras with additional structure.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure

Evaluation of the EVA Descriptor for QSAR Studies: 3. The use of a Genetic Algorithm to Search for Models with Enhanced Predictive Properties (EVA_GA)

The EVA structural descriptor, based upon calculated fundamental molecular vibrational frequencies, has proved to be an effective descriptor for both QSAR and database similarity calculations. The descriptor is sensitive to 3D structure but has an advantage over field-based 3D-QSAR methods inasmuch as structural superposition is not required. The original technique involves a standardisation method wherein uniform Gaussians of fixed standard deviation (σ) are used to smear out frequencies projected onto a linear scale. This smearing function permits the overlap of proximal frequencies and thence the extraction of a fixed dimensional descriptor regardless of the number and precise values of the frequencies. It is proposed here that there exist optimal localised values of σ in different spectral regions; that is, the overlap of frequencies using uniform Gaussians may, at certain points in the spectrum, either be insufficient to pick up relationships where they exist or mix up information to such an extent that significant correlations are obscured by noise. A genetic algorithm is used to search for optimal localised σ values using crossvalidated PLS regression scores as the fitness score to be optimised. The resultant models are then validated against a previously unseen test set of compounds. The performance of EVA_GA is compared to that of EVA and analogous CoMFA studies

The EVA spectral descriptor

The EVA descriptor is derived from fundamental IR- and Raman range molecular vibrational frequencies. EVA is sensitive to 3D structure but has an advantage over field-based 3D-QSAR methods inasmuch as it is invariant to both translation and rotation of the structures concerned and thus structural superposition is not required. The latter property and the demonstration of the effectiveness of the descriptor for QSAR means that EVA has been the subject of a great deal of interest from the modelling community. This review describes the derivation of the descriptor, details its main parameters and how to apply them, and provides an overview of the validation that has been done with the descriptor. A recent enhancement to the technique is described which involves the localised adjustment of variance in such a way that enhanced internal and external predictivity may be obtained. Despite the statistical quality of EVA QSAR models the main draw-back to the descriptor at present is the difficulty associated with back-tracking from a PLS model to an EVA pharmacophore. Brief comment is made on the use of the EVA descriptor for diversity studies and the similarity searching of chemical structure databases

The BSE Crisis and the Price of Red Meat in the UK

This paper presents estimates of price functions for beef, lamb and pork for the UK economy which allow for the effects of the 1996 BSE crisis. Our estimates illustrate the importance of allowing for the joint endogeneity of prices in these markets. We show that the effects of this crisis had a significant negative effect on the price of beef and a positive and significant effect on the price of lamb. However, there appears to have been little effect on the price of pork

Asymmetries in Bank of England Monetary Policy

In this paper we estimate limited dependent variable models for Bank of England monetary policy using monthly data over the period June 1997 to March 2003. During this period the Bank has had operational independence to set the interest rate in order to meet the inflation target set by the Government. We find evidence that the Bank has responded to current output growth rather than inflation which is consistent with targeting future inflation when there is a lag in the response of inflation to the output gap. We also find evidence of an asymmetry in the sense that the link between the interest rate and output growth is stronger when an increase in the interest rate is required than when circumstances dictate it should be cut. On the other hand there is considerably more inertia for interest rate cuts in the sense that a cut in the rate in one month significantly increases the probability of a cut in the next month which is not the case for increases

The Error Correction Model as a Test for Cointegration

In this paper we generate critical values for a test for cointegration based on the joint significance of the levels terms in an error correction equation. We show that the appropriate critical values are higher than those derived from the standard F-distribution. We compare the power properties of this test with those of the Engle-Granger test and Kremers et al´s t-test based on the t-statistic from an error correction equation. The F-test has higher power than the Engle-Granger test but lower power than the t-form of the error correction test. However, the F-form of the test has the advantage that its distribution is independent of the parameters of the problem being considered. Finally, we consider a test for cointegration between UK and US interest rates. We show that the F-test rejects the null of no cointegration between these variables although the Engle-Granger test fails to do so

Convergence and Diversity in International and Comparative Industrial Relations

[Excerpt] In this essay, we reexamine a critical paradox in international and comparative industrial relations, a paradox that already decades ago demonstrated its ability to intrigue scholarly curiosity (Galenson, 1952,1963; Kerr et al, 1960). As we see it, convergence along a number of important dimensions, such as labor law and organizational and bargaining structure, is occurring simultaneously with widespread cross-national and local divergence, or diversity, in industrial relations practices and outcomes. Along with economic and political interdependence and with intensifications of market competition, convergence and diversity both appear to be product of an increasing spread of markets and ideas sometimes referred to as globalization. In employing this term, we intend to make the point that the conduct of global business is no longer confined to the sort of international trading and related activities that have been carried on for centuries already. In the modern era, the production and exchange of both goods and services occur increasingly on a global scale (Reich, 1991). At this level, as capital mobility expands and trade agreements proliferate (NAFTA, CATT, the single European market), national governments find it increasingly difficult to regulate markets. This globalization of markets, we suggest, is the dominant force driving change (whether toward convergence or diversity) in the contemporary period. Our observations are especially applicable to the advanced industrial countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the primary focus of this paper, although the trends identified here probably also hold to some extent for newly industrialized countries and less developed societies as well