Future costs in cost-effectiveness analysis: an empirical assessment

To assess the usage of cost-utility analysis (CUA) in oral health interventions and to evaluate the methods used and the reporting quality of CUA in publications on oral health interventions

Estimating the survival benefits gained from providing national cancer genetic services to women with a family history of breast cancer

The aim of this paper is to compare a service offering genetic testing and presymptomatic surveillance to women at increased risk of developing breast cancer with its predecessor of no service at all in terms of survival and quality-adjusted survival (QALYs) by means of a Markov cohort chain simulation model. Genetic assessment and presymptomatic care provided between 0.07-1.61 mean additional life years and 0.05-1.67 mean QALYs over no services. Prophylactic surgery and surveillance extended mean life expectancy by 0.41-1.61 and 0.32-0.99 years, respectively over no services for high-risk women. Model outcomes were sensitive to all the parameters varied in the sensitivity analysis. Providing cancer genetic services increase survival and as long as services do not induce adverse psychological effects they also provide more QALYs. The greatest survival and QALY benefits were found for women with identified mutations. As more cancer genes are identified, the survival and cost-effectiveness of genetic services will improve. Although mastectomy provided most additional life years, when quality of life was accounted for oophorectomy was the optimal strategy. Delayed entry into coordinated genetic services was found to diminish the average survival and QALY gains for a woman utilising these services

Are non-responders in a quitline evaluation more likely to be smokers?

BACKGROUND: In evaluation of smoking cessation programs including surveys and clinical trials the tradition has been to treat non-responders as smokers. The aim of this paper is to assess smoking behaviour of non-responders in an evaluation of the Swedish national tobacco cessation quitline a nation-wide, free of charge service. METHODS: A telephone interview survey with a sample of people not participating in the original follow-up. The study population comprised callers to the Swedish quitline who had consented to participate in a 12 month follow-up but had failed to respond. A sample of 84 (18% of all non-responders) was included. The main outcome measures were self-reported smoking behaviour at the time of the interview and at the time of the routine follow-up. Also, reasons for not responding to the original follow-up questionnaire were assessed. For statistical comparison between groups we used Fischer's exact test, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) on proportions and OR. RESULTS: Thirty-nine percent reported to have been smoke-free at the time they received the original questionnaire compared with 31% of responders in the original study population. The two most common reasons stated for not having returned the original questionnaire was claiming that they had returned it (35%) and that they had not received the questionnaire (20%). Non-responders were somewhat younger and were to a higher degree smoke-free when they first called the quitline. CONCLUSION: Treating non-responders as smokers in smoking cessation research may underestimate the true effect of cessation treatment

Is Meta-Analysis for Utility Values Appropriate Given the Potential Impact Different Elicitation Methods Have on Values?

A growing number of published articles report estimates from meta-analysis or meta-regression on health state utility values (HSUVs), with a view to providing input into decision-analytic models. Pooling HSUVs is problematic because of the fact that different valuation methods and different preference-based measures (PBMs) can generate different values on exactly the same clinical health state. Existing meta-analyses of HSUVs are characterised by high levels of heterogeneity, and meta-regressions have identified significant (and substantial) impacts arising from the elicitation method used. The use of meta-regression with few utility values and inclusion criteria that extend beyond the required utility value has not helped. There is the potential to explore greater use of mapping between different PBMs and valuation methods prior to data synthesis, which could support greater use of pooling values. Researchers wishing to populate decision-analytic models have a responsibility to incorporate all high-quality evidence available. In relation to HSUVs, greater understanding of the differences between different methods and greater consistency of methodology is required before this can be achieved

To Test or to Treat? An Analysis of Influenza Testing and Antiviral Treatment Strategies Using Economic Computer Modeling

BACKGROUND: Due to the unpredictable burden of pandemic influenza, the best strategy to manage testing, such as rapid or polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and antiviral medications for patients who present with influenza-like illness (ILI) is unknown.\ud \ud METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a set of computer simulation models to evaluate the potential economic value of seven strategies under seasonal and pandemic influenza conditions: (1) using clinical judgment alone to guide antiviral use, (2) using PCR to determine whether to initiate antivirals, (3) using a rapid (point-of-care) test to determine antiviral use, (4) using a combination of a point-of-care test and clinical judgment, (5) using clinical judgment and confirming the diagnosis with PCR testing, (6) treating all with antivirals, and (7) not treating anyone with antivirals. For healthy younger adults (<65 years old) presenting with ILI in a seasonal influenza scenario, strategies were only cost-effective from the societal perspective. Clinical judgment, followed by PCR and point-of-care testing, was found to be cost-effective given a high influenza probability. Doubling hospitalization risk and mortality (representing either higher risk individuals or more virulent strains) made using clinical judgment to guide antiviral decision-making cost-effective, as well as PCR testing, point-of-care testing, and point-of-care testing used in conjunction with clinical judgment. For older adults (> or = 65 years old), in both seasonal and pandemic influenza scenarios, employing PCR was the most cost-effective option, with the closest competitor being clinical judgment (when judgment accuracy > or = 50%). Point-of-care testing plus clinical judgment was cost-effective with higher probabilities of influenza. Treating all symptomatic ILI patients with antivirals was cost-effective only in older adults.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study delineated the conditions under which different testing and antiviral strategies may be cost-effective, showing the importance of accuracy, as seen with PCR or highly sensitive clinical judgment.\ud \u

The value of health care – a matter of discussion in Germany

BACKGROUND: Interest in assessing the value of health-care services in Germany has considerably increased since the foundation of the Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen, IQWiG (Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care). The practical application of value assessment illustrates how problematic the process can be. In all decisions made for the provision of health care, data concerning the measurable dimensions (quantity and quality of efficacy and effectiveness, validity of the results and costs) flow into a complex and not yet standardized decision-making process concerning public financing. Some of these decisions are based on data of uncertain validity, unknown reproducibility and unclear appropriateness. DISCUSSION: In this paper we describe the theoretical aspects of value from psychological and economic viewpoints and discuss national and international approaches. Methodic details and difficulties in assessing the value of health-care services are analysed. A definition of the intangible value of health-care services will be proposed which contains only three factors: the absolute risk reduction (usually a measure of efficacy), the validity of the scientific papers examined and the type of the expected effectiveness (prevention of death and disability, restitution of well-being). The intangible value describes the additional benefit when comparing two possible actions, like treatment or observation only. CONCLUSION: The description of intangible value from the viewpoint of different stakeholders is a useful measure for subsequent steps (not discussed here) – the evaluation of costs and of patient benefit. A standardised, transparent, fair and democratic evaluation is essential for the definition of a basic benefit package

Personal and Societal Health Quality Lost to Tuberculosis

BACKGROUND: In developed countries, tuberculosis is considered a disease with little loss of Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Tuberculosis treatment is predominantly ambulatory and death from tuberculosis is rare. Research has shown that there are chronic pulmonary sequelae in a majority of patients who have completed treatment for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). This and other health effects of tuberculosis have not been considered in QALY calculations. Consequently both the burden of tuberculosis on the individual and the value of tuberculosis prevention to society are underestimated. We estimated QALYs lost to pulmonary TB patients from all known sources, and estimated health loss to prevalent TB disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We calculated values for health during illness and treatment, pulmonary impairment after tuberculosis (PIAT), death rates, years-of-life-lost to death, and normal population health. We then compared the lifetime expected QALYs for a cohort of tuberculosis patients with that expected for comparison populations with latent tuberculosis infection and without tuberculosis infection. Persons with culture-confirmed tuberculosis accrued fewer lifetime QALYs than those without tuberculosis. Acute tuberculosis morbidity cost 0.046 QALYs (4% of total) per individual. Chronic morbidity accounted for an average of 0.96 QALYs (78% of total). Mortality accounted for 0.22 QALYs lost (18% of total). The net benefit to society of averting one case of PTB was about 1.4 QALYs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Tuberculosis, a preventable disease, results in QALYs lost owing to illness, impairment, and death. The majority of QALYs lost from tuberculosis resulted from impairment after microbiologic cure. Successful TB prevention efforts yield more health quality than previously thought and should be given high priority by health policy makers. (Refer to Abstracto S1 for Spanish language abstract)

Examining the impact of 11 long-standing health conditions on health-related quality of life using the EQ-5D in a general population sample

Objectives Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures have been increasingly used in economic evaluations for policy guidance. We investigate the impact of 11 self-reported long-standing health conditions on HRQoL using the EQ-5D in a UK sample. Methods We used data from 13,955 patients in the South Yorkshire Cohort study collected between 2010 and 2012 containing the EQ-5D, a preference-based measure. Ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit and two-part regression analyses were undertaken to estimate the impact of 11 long-standing health conditions on HRQoL at the individual level. Results The results varied significantly with the regression models employed. In the OLS and Tobit models, pain had the largest negative impact on HRQoL, followed by depression, osteoarthritis and anxiety/nerves, after controlling for all other conditions and sociodemographic characteristics. The magnitude of coefficients was higher in the Tobit model than in the OLS model. In the two-part model, these four long-standing health conditions were statistically significant, but the magnitude of coefficients decreased significantly compared to that in the OLS and Tobit models and was ranked from pain followed by depression, anxiety/nerves and osteoarthritis. Conclusions Pain, depression, osteoarthritis and anxiety/nerves are associated with the greatest losses of HRQoL in the UK population. The estimates presented in this article should be used to inform economic evaluations when assessing health care interventions, though improvements can be made in terms of diagnostic information and obtaining longitudinal data