Assessment of transmission in trachoma programs over time suggests no short-term loss of immunity.

Trachoma programs have dramatically reduced the prevalence of the ocular chlamydia that cause the disease. Some have hypothesized that immunity to the infection may be reduced because of program success in reducing the incidence of infection, and transmission may then increase. Longitudinal studies of multiple communities would be necessary to test this hypothesis. Here, we quantify transmission using an estimated basic reproduction number based on 32 communities during the first, second, and third years of an antibiotic treatment program. We found that there is little to no increase in the basic reproduction number over time. The estimated linear trend in the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], was found to be -0.025 per year, 95% CI -0.167 to 0.117 per year. We are unable to find evidence supporting any loss of immunity over the course of a 3-year program. This is encouraging, as it allows the possibility that repeated mass antibiotic distributions may eliminate infection from even the most severely affected areas

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Where Do We Go from Here? Prevalence of Trachoma Three Years after Stopping Mass Distribution of Antibiotics in the Regions of Kayes and Koulikoro, Mali

Trachoma, a blinding bacterial disease, is targeted for elimination by 2020. To achieve the elimination target, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends member states implement the SAFE strategy; surgery, mass administration of antibiotics, promotion of hygiene and facial cleanliness and water and sanitation as environmental improvements. We present results from evaluation surveys conducted in 2006 and 2009 from the regions of Kayes and Koulikoro, Mali. Prevalence of active trachoma in 2006 was below baseline intervention thresholds in all surveyed districts and the national program stopped antibiotic distribution. The prevalence of trachoma in 2009 remained well below levels in 1998. However, in 8 of 13 districts compared, the prevalence of active trachoma was higher in 2009 than 2006. Three years of antibiotic intervention did not equate in all districts to a sustained reduction of active trachoma. No surveillance activities were implemented after stopping interventions. Surgical interventions may have reduced the burden of blinding trachoma but there is an ongoing need for surgeries specifically targeting affected women. Four districts meet the WHO criteria for resuming district-wide mass antibiotic distribution. A community-by-community approach to elimination may be needed in other districts. The promotion of facial cleanliness and good hygiene behavior should be reintroduced