Burden of enteric fever at three urban sites in Africa and Asia: a multicentre population-based study

Summary Background Enteric fever is a serious public health concern in many low-income and middle-income countries. Numerous data gaps exist concerning the epidemiology of Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) and Salmonella enterica serotype Paratyphi (S Paratyphi), which are the causative agents of enteric fever. We aimed to determine the burden of enteric fever in three urban sites in Africa and Asia. Methods In this multicentre population-based study, we did a demographic census at three urban sites in Africa (Blantyre, Malawi) and Asia (Kathmandu, Nepal and Dhaka, Bangladesh) between June 1, 2016, and Sept 25, 2018. Households were selected randomly from the demographic census. Participants from within the geographical census area presenting to study health-care facilities were approached for recruitment if they had a history of fever for 72 h or more (later changed to >48 h) or temperature of 38·0°C or higher. Facility-based passive surveillance was done between Nov 11, 2016, and Dec 31, 2018, with blood-culture collection for febrile illness. We also did a community-based serological survey to obtain data on Vi-antibody defined infections. We calculated crude incidence for blood-culture-confirmed S Typhi and S Paratyphi infection, and calculated adjusted incidence and seroincidence of S Typhi blood-culture-confirmed infection. Findings 423 618 individuals were included in the demographic census, contributing 626 219 person-years of observation for febrile illness surveillance. 624 S Typhi and 108 S Paratyphi A isolates were collected from the blood of 12 082 febrile patients. Multidrug resistance was observed in 44% S Typhi isolates and fluoroquinolone resistance in 61% of S Typhi isolates. In Blantyre, the overall crude incidence of blood-culture confirmed S Typhi was 58 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% CI 48–70); the adjusted incidence was 444 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% credible interval [CrI] 347–717). The corresponding rates were 74 (95% CI 62–87) and 1062 (95% CrI 683–1839) in Kathmandu, and 161 (95% CI 145–179) and 1135 (95% CrI 898–1480) in Dhaka. S Paratyphi was not found in Blantyre; overall crude incidence of blood-culture-confirmed S Paratyphi A infection was 6 cases per 100 000 person-years of observation (95% CI 3–11) in Kathmandu and 42 (95% CI 34–52) in Dhaka. Seroconversion rates for S Typhi infection per 100 000 person-years estimated from anti-Vi seroconversion episodes in serological surveillance were 2505 episodes (95% CI 1605–3727) in Blantyre, 7631 (95% CI 5913–9691) in Kathmandu, and 3256 (95% CI 2432–4270) in Dhaka. Interpretation High disease incidence and rates of antimicrobial resistance were observed across three different transmission settings and thus necessitate multiple intervention strategies to achieve global control of these pathogens. Funding Wellcome Trust and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Direct inference and control of genetic population structure from RNA sequencing data

RNAseq data can be used to infer genetic variants, yet its use for estimating genetic population structure remains underexplored. Here, we construct a freely available computational tool (RGStraP) to estimate RNAseq-based genetic principal components (RG-PCs) and assess whether RG-PCs can be used to control for population structure in gene expression analyses. Using whole blood samples from understudied Nepalese populations and the Geuvadis study, we show that RG-PCs had comparable results to paired array-based genotypes, with high genotype concordance and high correlations of genetic principal components, capturing subpopulations within the dataset. In differential gene expression analysis, we found that inclusion of RG-PCs as covariates reduced test statistic inflation. Our paper demonstrates that genetic population structure can be directly inferred and controlled for using RNAseq data, thus facilitating improved retrospective and future analyses of transcriptomic data

Improving the cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia : a modelling study

Background : Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with \u27high blood pressure\u27 or \u27high cholesterol\u27, to prevention based on a patient\u27s absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term. Methods : We evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year. Results : Cardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as$7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand. Conclusions : Changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010. <br /

Diabetes MILES - Australia (Management and Impact for Long-Term Empowerment and Success) : methods and sample characteristics of a national survey of the psychological aspects of living with type 1 or type 2 diabetes in Australian adults

Background Successful management of diabetes requires attention to the behavioural, psychological and social aspects of this progressive condition. The Diabetes MILES (Management and Impact for Long-term Empowerment and Success) Study is an international collaborative. Diabetes MILES-Australia, the first Diabetes MILES initiative to be undertaken, was a national survey of adults living with type 1 or type 2 diabetes in Australia. The aim of this study was to gather data that will provide insights into how Australians manage their diabetes, the support they receive and the impact of diabetes on their lives, as well as to use the data to validate new diabetes outcome measures.Methods The survey was designed to include a core set of self-report measures, as well as modules specific to diabetes type or management regimens. Other measures or items were included in only half of the surveys. Cognitive debriefing interviews with 20 participants ensured the survey content was relevant and easily understood. In July 2011, the survey was posted to 15,000 adults (aged 18-70 years) with type 1 or type 2 diabetes selected randomly from the National Diabetes Services Scheme (NDSS) database. An online version of the survey was advertised nationally. A total of 3,338 eligible Australians took part; most (70.4%) completed the postal survey. Respondents of both diabetes types and genders, and of all ages, were adequately represented in both the postal and online survey sub-samples. More people with type 2 diabetes than type 1 diabetes took part in Diabetes MILES-Australia (58.8% versus 41.2%). Most respondents spoke English as their main language, were married/in a de facto relationship, had at least a high school education, were occupied in paid work, had an annual household income &gt; $AUS40,000, and lived in metropolitan areas.Discussion A potential limitation of the study is the under-representation of respondents from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds (including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander origin). Diabetes MILES-Australia represents a major achievement in the study of diabetes in Australia, where for the first time, the focus is on psychosocial and behavioural aspects of this condition at a national level. <br /

Which interventions offer best value for money in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease?

BackgroundDespite many decades of declining mortality rates in the Western world, cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. In this research we evaluate the optimal mix of lifestyle, pharmaceutical and population-wide interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.Methods and FindingsIn a discrete time Markov model we simulate the ischaemic heart disease and stroke outcomes and cost impacts of intervention over the lifetime of all Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Best value for money is achieved by mandating moderate limits on salt in the manufacture of bread, margarine and cereal. A combination of diuretic, calcium channel blocker, ACE inhibitor and low-cost statin, for everyone with at least 5% five-year risk of cardiovascular disease, is also cost-effective, but lifestyle interventions aiming to change risky dietary and exercise behaviours are extremely poor value for money and have little population health benefit.ConclusionsThere is huge potential for improving efficiency in cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia. A tougher approach from Government to mandating limits on salt in processed foods and reducing excessive statin prices, and a shift away from lifestyle counselling to more efficient absolute risk-based prescription of preventive drugs, could cut health care costs while improving population health.<br /

Case-finding for common mental disorders of anxiety and depression in primary care: an external validation of routinely collected data

Background The robustness of epidemiological research using routinely collected primary care electronic data to support policy and practice for common mental disorders (CMD) anxiety and depression would be greatly enhanced by appropriate validation of diagnostic codes and algorithms for data extraction. We aimed to create a robust research platform for CMD using population-based, routinely collected primary care electronic data. Methods We developed a set of Read code lists (diagnosis, symptoms, treatments) for the identification of anxiety and depression in the General Practice Database (GPD) within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank at Swansea University, and assessed 12 algorithms for Read codes to define cases according to various criteria. Annual incidence rates were calculated per 1000 person years at risk (PYAR) to assess recording practice for these CMD between January 1st 2000 and December 31st 2009. We anonymously linked the 2799 MHI-5 Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Survey (CHSNS) respondents aged 18 to 74 years to their routinely collected GP data in SAIL. We estimated the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of the various algorithms using the MHI-5 as the gold standard. Results The incidence of combined depression/anxiety diagnoses remained stable over the ten-year period in a population of over 500,000 but symptoms increased from 6.5 to 20.7 per 1000 PYAR. A ‘historical’ GP diagnosis for depression/anxiety currently treated plus a current diagnosis (treated or untreated) resulted in a specificity of 0.96, sensitivity 0.29 and PPV 0.76. Adding current symptom codes improved sensitivity (0.32) with a marginal effect on specificity (0.95) and PPV (0.74). Conclusions We have developed an algorithm with a high specificity and PPV of detecting cases of anxiety and depression from routine GP data that incorporates symptom codes to reflect GP coding behaviour. We have demonstrated that using diagnosis and current treatment alone to identify cases for depression and anxiety using routinely collected primary care data will miss a number of true cases given changes in GP recording behaviour. The Read code lists plus the developed algorithms will be applicable to other routinely collected primary care datasets, creating a platform for future e-cohort research into these conditions. Keyword

Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) and typhoid fever in Vietnam.

Understanding the host genetic susceptibility to typhoid fever may provide a better understanding of pathogenesis and help in the development of new therapeutics and vaccines. Here we determine the genetic variation within the human TLR4 gene encoding the principal receptor for bacterial endotoxin recognition in typhoid fever patients. It is possible that genetic variants of TLR4 could detrimentally affect the innate immune response against S. typhi infection. Mutation detection and genotyping of TLR4 was performed on DNA from 414 Vietnamese typhoid fever patients and 372 population controls. dHPLC detected a total of 10 polymorphisms within the upstream and exonic regions of TLR4, of which 7 are novel. Two SNPs, T4025A and C4215G, were more frequent in typhoid cases than in controls however due to their low allele frequencies they showed borderline significance (T4025A: OR 1.9, 95%CI 0.9-4.3, P 0.07 and C4215G: OR 6.7, 95%CI 0.8-307, P 0.04). Six missense mutations were identified, with 5/6 positioned in the ectoplasmic domain. Four missense mutations and one promoter SNP (A-271G) were only present in typhoid cases, albeit at low allele frequencies. Here we determined the extent of genetic variation within TLR4 in a Vietnamese population and suggest that TLR4 may be involved in defense against typhoid fever in this population

High prevalence of PI resistance in patients failing second-line ART in Vietnam

BACKGROUND: There are limited data from resource-limited settings on antiretroviral resistance mutations that develop in patients failing second-line PI ART. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional virological assessment of adults on second-line ART for ≥6 months between November 2006 and December 2011, followed by a prospective follow-up over 2 years of patients with virological failure (VF) at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Vietnam. VF was defined as HIV RNA concentrations ≥1000 copies/mL. Resistance mutations were identified by population sequencing of the pol gene and interpreted using the 2014 IAS-USA mutation list and the Stanford algorithm. Logistic regression modelling was performed to identify predictors of VF. RESULTS: Two hundred and thirty-one patients were enrolled in the study. The median age was 32 years; 81.0% were male, 95.7% were on a lopinavir/ritonavir-containing regimen and 22 (9.5%) patients had VF. Of the patients with VF, 14 (64%) carried at least one major protease mutation [median: 2 (IQR: 1-3)]; 13 (59%) had multiple protease mutations conferring intermediate- to high-level resistance to lopinavir/ritonavir. Mutations conferring cross-resistance to etravirine, rilpivirine, tipranavir and darunavir were identified in 55%, 55%, 45% and 27% of patients, respectively. Higher viral load, adherence <95% and previous indinavir use were independent predictors of VF. The 2 year outcomes of the patients maintained on lopinavir/ritonavir included: death, 7 (35%); worsening virological/immunological control, 6 (30%); and virological re-suppression, 5 (25%). Two patients were switched to raltegravir and darunavir/ritonavir with good HIV control. CONCLUSIONS: High-prevalence PI resistance was associated with previous indinavir exposure. Darunavir plus an integrase inhibitor and lamivudine might be a promising third-line regimen in Vietnam