Protocol for a multi-centre observational and mixed methods pilot study to identify factors predictive of poor functional recovery after major gastrointestinal surgery and strategies to enhance uptake of perioperative optimization. Optimizing the care and treatment pathways for older patients facing major gastrointestinal surgery (OCTAGON)

Introduction: National datasets report large variations in outcomes from older people (≥65 years) between different UK surgical units. This implies that not all patients receive the same level of care or access to resources, such as rehabilitation or allied health professional input. This might impact functional decline. Aims: Our aim is to evaluate the baseline status of older patients facing major gastrointestinal surgery and the impact of variation in perioperative assessment and provision of perioperative support on functional outcomes. Patients’ experiences and views of assessment and optimization will be explored via integrated qualitative semi-structured interviews. Methods and analysis: This multi-centre, pilot cohort study will include patients ≥65 years presenting via both elective and emergency pathways at three to five South Yorkshire NHS hospitals (Clinical Trials registration NCT04545125). The primary outcome is functional recovery measured using the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 at 6 weeks post-operation. Secondary outcomes include feasibility, quality of life, length of stay and complication rate. An opportunistic sample size of 120 has been estimated and will inform the design of a future, adequately powered study. For the qualitative study, 20–30 semi-structured patient interviews will be undertaken with patients from the cohort study to explore experiences of assessment and optimization. Interviews will be digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed according to the framework approach. Ethics and dissemination: This study has been approved by the National Health Service Research Ethics Committee and is registered centrally with Health Research Authority. It has been adopted by the National Institute for Health Research Portfolio scheme. Dissemination will be via international and national surgical and geriatric conferences

Boundary-crossing identities for diffusions having the time-inversion property

We review and study a one-parameter family of functional transformations, denoted by (S (β)) β∈ℝ, which, in the case β<0, provides a path realization of bridges associated to the family of diffusion processes enjoying the time-inversion property. This family includes Brownian motions, Bessel processes with a positive dimension and their conservative h-transforms. By means of these transformations, we derive an explicit and simple expression which relates the law of the boundary-crossing times for these diffusions over a given function f to those over the image of f by the mapping S (β), for some fixed β∈ℝ. We give some new examples of boundary-crossing problems for the Brownian motion and the family of Bessel processes. We also provide, in the Brownian case, an interpretation of the results obtained by the standard method of images and establish connections between the exact asymptotics for large time of the densities corresponding to various curves of each family

The origins and development of Zuwīla, Libyan Sahara: an archaeological and historical overview of an ancient oasis town and caravan centre

Zuwīla in southwestern Libya (Fazzān) was one of the most important early Islamic centres in the Central Sahara, but the archaeological correlates of the written sources for it have been little explored. This paper brings together for the first time a detailed consideration of the relevant historical and archaeological data, together with new AMS radiocarbon dates from several key monuments. The origins of the settlement at Zuwīla were pre-Islamic, but the town gained greater prominence in the early centuries of Arab rule of the Maghrib, culminating with the establishment of an Ibāḍī state ruled by the dynasty of the Banū Khaṭṭāb, with Zuwīla its capital. The historical sources and the accounts of early European travellers are discussed and archaeological work at Zuwīla is described (including the new radiocarbon dates). A short gazetteer of archaeological monuments is provided as an appendix. Comparisons and contrasts are also drawn between Zuwīla and other oases of the ash-Sharqiyāt region of Fazzān. The final section of the paper presents a series of models based on the available evidence, tracing the evolution and decline of this remarkable site

SARS-CoV-2-specific nasal IgA wanes 9 months after hospitalisation with COVID-19 and is not induced by subsequent vaccination

BACKGROUND: Most studies of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 focus on circulating antibody, giving limited insights into mucosal defences that prevent viral replication and onward transmission. We studied nasal and plasma antibody responses one year after hospitalisation for COVID-19, including a period when SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was introduced. METHODS: In this follow up study, plasma and nasosorption samples were prospectively collected from 446 adults hospitalised for COVID-19 between February 2020 and March 2021 via the ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. IgA and IgG responses to NP and S of ancestral SARS-CoV-2, Delta and Omicron (BA.1) variants were measured by electrochemiluminescence and compared with plasma neutralisation data. FINDINGS: Strong and consistent nasal anti-NP and anti-S IgA responses were demonstrated, which remained elevated for nine months (p < 0.0001). Nasal and plasma anti-S IgG remained elevated for at least 12 months (p < 0.0001) with plasma neutralising titres that were raised against all variants compared to controls (p < 0.0001). Of 323 with complete data, 307 were vaccinated between 6 and 12 months; coinciding with rises in nasal and plasma IgA and IgG anti-S titres for all SARS-CoV-2 variants, although the change in nasal IgA was minimal (1.46-fold change after 10 months, p = 0.011) and the median remained below the positive threshold determined by pre-pandemic controls. Samples 12 months after admission showed no association between nasal IgA and plasma IgG anti-S responses (R = 0.05, p = 0.18), indicating that nasal IgA responses are distinct from those in plasma and minimally boosted by vaccination. INTERPRETATION: The decline in nasal IgA responses 9 months after infection and minimal impact of subsequent vaccination may explain the lack of long-lasting nasal defence against reinfection and the limited effects of vaccination on transmission. These findings highlight the need to develop vaccines that enhance nasal immunity. FUNDING: This study has been supported by ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. ISARIC4C is supported by grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research and the Medical Research Council. Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre provided infrastructure support for this research. The PHOSP-COVD study is jointly funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute of Health and Care Research. The funders were not involved in the study design, interpretation of data or the writing of this manuscript

Large-scale phenotyping of patients with long COVID post-hospitalization reveals mechanistic subtypes of disease

One in ten severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections result in prolonged symptoms termed long coronavirus disease (COVID), yet disease phenotypes and mechanisms are poorly understood1. Here we profiled 368 plasma proteins in 657 participants ≥3 months following hospitalization. Of these, 426 had at least one long COVID symptom and 233 had fully recovered. Elevated markers of myeloid inflammation and complement activation were associated with long COVID. IL-1R2, MATN2 and COLEC12 were associated with cardiorespiratory symptoms, fatigue and anxiety/depression; MATN2, CSF3 and C1QA were elevated in gastrointestinal symptoms and C1QA was elevated in cognitive impairment. Additional markers of alterations in nerve tissue repair (SPON-1 and NFASC) were elevated in those with cognitive impairment and SCG3, suggestive of brain–gut axis disturbance, was elevated in gastrointestinal symptoms. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) was persistently elevated in some individuals with long COVID, but virus was not detected in sputum. Analysis of inflammatory markers in nasal fluids showed no association with symptoms. Our study aimed to understand inflammatory processes that underlie long COVID and was not designed for biomarker discovery. Our findings suggest that specific inflammatory pathways related to tissue damage are implicated in subtypes of long COVID, which might be targeted in future therapeutic trials

Defending against speculative attacks: A hybrid model of exchange market pressure and crises

While virtually all currency crisis models recognise that the fate of a currency peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, they seldom model how this is done. We incorporate themechanics of speculation and the interest rate defence against it in the model of Morris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). Our model captures that the interest rate defence reduces speculators' profits and thus postpones the crisis. It predicts that well before the fall of a currency interest rates are increased to offset the buildup of exchange market pressure, and this then unravels in a sharp depreciation. This pattern is at odds with predictions of standard models, but we show that it fits well with reality

Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence

While virtually all currency crisis models recognise that the decision to abandon a peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, this is seldom modelled explicitly. We add the threat of an interest rate defence to the global game model of Morris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). With an endogenous defence, actions of speculators may become strategic substitutes instead of the usual complements. Nevertheless, our generalised model remains tractable and has a unique threshold equilibrium. It provides additional insights. For instance, the threat of an interest rate defence makes speculation riskier and this may be sufficient to keep speculators out when fundamentals are still relatively strong