Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020

Negative appraisals of insulin therapy are common among adults with Type 2 diabetes using insulin: results from diabetes MILES - Australia cross-sectional survey

AIM: To identify insulin therapy appraisals among adults with Type 2 diabetes using insulin and how negative appraisals relate to clinical, self-care and psychosocial outcomes. METHODS: Diabetes MILES - Australia 2011 was a national survey of adults with diabetes, focused on behavioural and psychosocial issues. Subgroup analyses were conducted on the responses of 273 adults with Type 2 diabetes using insulin (46% women; mean ± sd age: 59 ± 9 years; diabetes duration: 12 ± 7 years; years using insulin: 4 ± 4). They completed validated measures of insulin therapy appraisals (ITAS), depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7), diabetes distress (PAID) and diabetes-specific self-efficacy (DES-SF). RESULTS: Insulin was perceived to be very important, and its benefits (e.g. improves health) were endorsed by most (82%). Fifty-one per cent believed that taking insulin means their diabetes has become worse; 51% that insulin causes weight gain; 39% that they have \u27failed to manage\u27 their diabetes. Those with the greatest and least \u27ITAS negative\u27 scores did not differ by diabetes duration or years using insulin, or by average number of insulin injections or blood glucose checks per day. Those with more negative insulin appraisals were significantly younger (Mean Diff. = 5 years, P < 0.001), less satisfied with recent blood glucose levels (P < 0.001, d = 0.63), had reduced diabetes-specific self-efficacy (P < 0.001, d = 0.7), and were more likely to report depressive symptoms, anxiety or diabetes distress (all P < 0.001, d = 0.65-1.1). CONCLUSIONS: Negative insulin therapy appraisals are common among adults with Type 2 diabetes using insulin, and are associated with lower general and diabetes-specific emotional well-being, reduced diabetes-specific self-efficacy and satisfaction with blood glucose