Long-term deglacial permafrost carbon dynamics in MPI-ESM

We have developed a new module to calculate soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation in perennially frozen ground in the land surface model JSBACH. Running this offline version of MPI-ESM we have modelled long-term permafrost carbon accumulation and release from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the pre-industrial (PI) age. Our simulated near-surface PI permafrost extent of 16.9&thinsp; × &thinsp;106&thinsp;km2 is close to observational estimates. Glacial boundary conditions, especially ice sheet coverage, result in profoundly different spatial patterns of glacial permafrost extent. Deglacial warming leads to large-scale changes in soil temperatures, manifested in permafrost disappearance in southerly regions, and permafrost aggregation in formerly glaciated grid cells. In contrast to the large spatial shift in simulated permafrost occurrence, we infer an only moderate increase in total LGM permafrost area (18.3&thinsp; × &thinsp;106&thinsp;km2) – together with pronounced changes in the depth of seasonal thaw. Earlier empirical reconstructions suggest a larger spread of permafrost towards more southerly regions under glacial conditions, but with a highly uncertain extent of non-continuous permafrost.Compared to a control simulation without describing the transport of SOC into perennially frozen ground, the implementation of our newly developed module for simulating permafrost SOC accumulation leads to a doubling of simulated LGM permafrost SOC storage (amounting to a total of  ∼ &thinsp;150&thinsp;PgC). Despite LGM temperatures favouring a larger permafrost extent, simulated cold glacial temperatures – together with low precipitation and low CO2 levels – limit vegetation productivity and therefore prevent a larger glacial SOC build-up in our model. Changes in physical and biogeochemical boundary conditions during deglacial warming lead to an increase in mineral SOC storage towards the Holocene (168&thinsp;PgC at PI), which is below observational estimates (575&thinsp;PgC in continuous and discontinuous permafrost). Additional model experiments clarified the sensitivity of simulated SOC storage to model parameters, affecting long-term soil carbon respiration rates and simulated ALDs. Rather than a steady increase in carbon release from the LGM to PI as a consequence of deglacial permafrost degradation, our results suggest alternating phases of soil carbon accumulation and loss as an effect of dynamic changes in permafrost extent, ALDs, soil litter input, and heterotrophic respiration.</p

Submarine permafrost map in the arctic modeled using 1-D transient heat flux (SuPerMAP)

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 124(6), (2019): 3490-3507, doi:10.1029/2018JC014675.Offshore permafrost plays a role in the global climate system, but observations of permafrost thickness, state, and composition are limited to specific regions. The current global permafrost map shows potential offshore permafrost distribution based on bathymetry and global sea level rise. As a first‐order estimate, we employ a heat transfer model to calculate the subsurface temperature field. Our model uses dynamic upper boundary conditions that synthesize Earth System Model air temperature, ice mass distribution and thickness, and global sea level reconstruction and applies globally distributed geothermal heat flux as a lower boundary condition. Sea level reconstruction accounts for differences between marine and terrestrial sedimentation history. Sediment composition and pore water salinity are integrated in the model. Model runs for 450 ka for cross‐shelf transects were used to initialize the model for circumarctic modeling for the past 50 ka. Preindustrial submarine permafrost (i.e., cryotic sediment), modeled at 12.5‐km spatial resolution, lies beneath almost 2.5 ×106km2 of the Arctic shelf. Our simple modeling approach results in estimates of distribution of cryotic sediment that are similar to the current global map and recent seismically delineated permafrost distributions for the Beaufort and Kara seas, suggesting that sea level is a first‐order determinant for submarine permafrost distribution. Ice content and sediment thermal conductivity are also important for determining rates of permafrost thickness change. The model provides a consistent circumarctic approach to map submarine permafrost and to estimate the dynamics of permafrost in the past.Boundary condition data are available online via the sources referenced in the manuscript. This work was partially funded by a Helmholtz Association of Research Centres (HGF) Joint Russian‐German Research Group (HGF JRG 100). This study is part of a project that has received funding from the European Unions Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement 773421. Submarine permafrost studies in the Kara and Laptev Seas were supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR/RFFI) grants 18‐05‐60004 and 18‐05‐70091, respectively. The International Permafrost Association (IPA) and the Association for Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS) supported research coordination that led to this study. We acknowledge coordination support of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) through their core project on Climate and Cryosphere (CliC). Thanks to Martin Jakobsson for providing a digitized version of the preliminary IHO delineation of the Arctic seas and to Guy Masters for access to the observational geothermal database. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.2019-10-1

Report and preliminary results of SONNE cruise SO175, Miami - Bremerhaven, 12.11 - 30.12.2003 : (GAP, Gibraltar Arc Processes)

Expedition SO175 using FS Sonne aimed for a multidisciplinerary geoscientific approach with an international group of researchers. Methods covered the entire span from geophysical data acquisition (seafloor mapping, echography, seismic reflection), sediment coring at sites of active fluid venting, in situ heat flow measurements across the entire length of the Gibraltar thrust wedge, the deformation front, landslide bodies, and mud volcanoes, and finally the deployment of a long-term pore pressure probe. Video-supported operations helped to identify fluid vent sites, regions with tectonic activity, and other attractive high priority targets. Qualitative and quantitative examinations took place on board and are continued on land with respect to pore pressure variation, geomicrobiology, sediment- and fluid mobilization, geochemical processes, faunal assemblages (e.g. cold water corals), and gas hydrates (flammable methane-ice-crystals). Main focus of the expedition has been a better understanding of interaction between dynamic processes in a seismically active region region with slow plate convergence. In the context of earthquake nucleation and subduction zone processes, the SO175 research programme had a variety of goals, such as: • To test the frictional behaviour of the abyssal plain sediments. • To explore the temperature field of the 1755 thrust earthquake event via heat flow measurements. • To assess the role of fluid venting and gas hydrate processes control slope stability and mud volcanic activity along the Iberian continental margin. • To measure isotope geochemistry of pore waters and carbonates of deep fluids. • To quantify microbial activity in Gibraltar wedge sediments. • To test whether microseismicity in the area corresponds to in situ pore pressure changes. • To find out if enhanced heat flow max be indicative of active subduction. Initial tentative results during the cruise suggest that there is a component of active thrusting at the base of the wedge, as attested by heat flow data. Based on mostly geochemical evidence, mud volcanism was found less active than previously assumed. Highlights from post-cruise research include the successful deployment of the long-term station and high frictional resistance of all incoming sediment on the three abyssal plains

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change

Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar warmth in these interglacials and in the Pliocene does not imply that a substantial cushion remains between today's climate and dangerous warming, but rather that Earth is poised to experience strong amplifying polar feedbacks in response to moderate global warming. Thus goals to limit human-made warming to 2{\deg}C are not sufficient - they are prescriptions for disaster. Ice sheet disintegration is nonlinear, spurred by amplifying feedbacks. We suggest that ice sheet mass loss, if warming continues unabated, will be characterized better by a doubling time for mass loss rate than by a linear trend. Satellite gravity data, though too brief to be conclusive, are consistent with a doubling time of 10 years or less, implying the possibility of multi-meter sea level rise this century. Observed accelerating ice sheet mass loss supports our conclusion that Earth's temperature now exceeds the mean Holocene value. Rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions is required for humanity to succeed in preserving a planet resembling the one on which civilization developed.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures; final version accepted for publication in "Climate Change at the Eve of the Second Decade of the Century: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects: Proceedings of Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium" (eds. Berger, Mesinger and Sijaci

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

ISSN:1752-0908ISSN:1752-089