Dynamical Behavior of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model

In this paper we study the Kernack - MacKendrick model under telegraph noise. The telegraph noise switches at random between two SIRS models. We give out conditions for the persistence of the disease and the stability of a disease free equilibrium. We show that the asymptotic behavior highly depends on the value of a threshold $\lambda$ which is calculated from the intensities of switching between environmental states, the total size of the population as well as the parameters of both SIRS systems. According to the value of $\lambda$, the system can globally tend towards an endemic case or a disease free case. The aim of this work is also to describe completely the omega-limit set of all positive solutions to the model. Moreover, the attraction of the omega-limit set and the stationary distribution of solutions will be pointed out.Comment: 16 page

The Right Mutation Strength for Multi-Valued Decision Variables

The most common representation in evolutionary computation are bit strings. This is ideal to model binary decision variables, but less useful for variables taking more values. With very little theoretical work existing on how to use evolutionary algorithms for such optimization problems, we study the run time of simple evolutionary algorithms on some OneMax-like functions defined over $\Omega = \{0, 1, \dots, r-1\}^n$. More precisely, we regard a variety of problem classes requesting the component-wise minimization of the distance to an unknown target vector $z \in \Omega$. For such problems we see a crucial difference in how we extend the standard-bit mutation operator to these multi-valued domains. While it is natural to select each position of the solution vector to be changed independently with probability $1/n$, there are various ways to then change such a position. If we change each selected position to a random value different from the original one, we obtain an expected run time of $\Theta(nr \log n)$. If we change each selected position by either $+1$ or $-1$ (random choice), the optimization time reduces to $\Theta(nr + n\log n)$. If we use a random mutation strength $i \in \{0,1,\ldots,r-1\}^n$ with probability inversely proportional to $i$ and change the selected position by either $+i$ or $-i$ (random choice), then the optimization time becomes $\Theta(n \log(r)(\log(n)+\log(r)))$, bringing down the dependence on $r$ from linear to polylogarithmic. One of our results depends on a new variant of the lower bounding multiplicative drift theorem.Comment: an extended abstract of this work is to appear at GECCO 201

A system for online beam emittance measurements and proton beam characterization

A system for online measurement of the transverse beam emittance was developed. It is named $^{4}$PrOB$\varepsilon$aM (4-Profiler Online Beam Emittance Measurement) and was conceived to measure the emittance in a fast and efficient way using the multiple beam profiler method. The core of the system is constituted by four consecutive UniBEaM profilers, which are based on silica fibers passing across the beam. The $^{4}$PrOB$\varepsilon$aM system was deployed for characterization studies of the 18~MeV proton beam produced by the IBA Cyclone 18 MeV cyclotron at Bern University Hospital (Inselspital). The machine serves daily radioisotope production and multi-disciplinary research, which is carried out with a specifically conceived Beam Transport Line (BTL). The transverse RMS beam emittance of the cyclotron was measured as a function of several machine parameters, such as the magnetic field, RF peak voltage, and azimuthal angle of the stripper. The beam emittance was also measured using the method based on the quadrupole strength variation. The results obtained with both techniques were compared and a good agreement was found. In order to characterize the longitudinal dynamics, the proton energy distribution was measured. For this purpose, a method was developed based on aluminum absorbers of different thicknesses, a UniBEaM detector, and a Faraday cup. The results were an input for a simulation of the BTL developed in the MAD-X software. This tool allows machine parameters to be tuned online and the beam characteristics to be optimized for specific applications.Comment: published in Journal of Instrumentatio

The energy production rate & the generation spectrum of UHECRs

We derive simple analytic expressions for the flux and spectrum of ultra-high energy cosmic-rays (UHECRs) predicted in models where the CRs are protons produced by extra-Galactic sources. For a power-law scaling of the CR production rate with redshift and energy, d\dot{n} /dE\propto E^-\alpha (1+z)^m, our results are accurate at high energy, E>10^18.7 eV, to better than 15%, providing a simple and straightforward method for inferring d\dot{n}/dE from the observed flux at E. We show that current measurements of the UHECR spectrum, including the latest Auger data, imply E^2d\dot{n}/dE(z=0)=(0.45\pm0.15)(\alpha-1) 10^44 erg Mpc^-3 yr^-1 at E<10^19.5 eV with \alpha roughly confined to 2\lesseq\alpha<2.7. The uncertainty is dominated by the systematic and statistic errors in the experimental determination of individual CR event energy, (\Delta E/E)_{sys} (\Delta E/E)_{stat} ~20%. At lower energy, d\dot{n}/dE is uncertain due to the unknown Galactic contribution. Simple models in which \alpha\simeq 2 and the transition from Galactic to extra-Galactic sources takes place at the "ankle", E ~10^19 eV, are consistent with the data. Models in which the transition occurs at lower energies require a high degree of fine tuning and a steep spectrum, \alpha\simeq 2.7, which is disfavored by the data. We point out that in the absence of accurate composition measurements, the (all particle) energy spectrum alone cannot be used to infer the detailed spectral shapes of the Galactic and extra-Galactic contributions.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figures, minor revision

Lens Galaxy Properties of SBS1520+530: Insights from Keck Spectroscopy and AO Imaging

We report on an investigation of the SBS 1520+530 gravitational lens system and its environment using archival HST imaging, Keck spectroscopic data, and Keck adaptive-optics imaging. The AO imaging has allowed us to fix the lens galaxy properties with a high degree of precision when performing the lens modeling, and the data indicate that the lens has an elliptical morphology and perhaps a disk. The new spectroscopic data suggest that previous determinations of the lens redshift may be incorrect, and we report an updated, though inconclusive, value z_lens = 0.761. We have also spectroscopically confirmed the existence of several galaxy groups at approximately the redshift of the lens system. We create new models of the lens system that explicitly account for the environment of the lens, and we also include improved constraints on the lensing galaxy from our adaptive-optics imaging. Lens models created with these new data can be well-fit with a steeper than isothermal mass slope (alpha = 2.29, with the density proportional to r^-alpha) if H_0 is fixed at 72 km/s/Mpc; isothermal models require H_0 ~ 50 km/s/Mpc. The steepened profile may indicate that the lens is in a transient perturbed state caused by interactions with a nearby galaxy.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures, submitted to Ap

What Matters to Australians: Our Social, Political and Economic Values

Societies are complex entities with competing and conflicting and supporting and reinforcing characteristics. This study, part of a multiyear project sponsored by the Australian Research Council (ARC) in conjunction with the University of Technology, Sydney and Melbourne Business School, seeks to chart the social, economic and political preferences of our society using a unique methodology that provides us with a more accurate and robust picture of how we, as citizens, make fundamental trade-offs about things of material interest to our society. The study was conducted in Australia with more than 1,500 participants chosen to match the profile of the voting age population. Similar studies were conducted in the UK, USA and Germany. Examined were 16 categories of general social, economic and political issues that ranged from the local (e.g., crime & public safety) to the global (e.g., global security) along with 113 subissues that also varied from the local (e.g., public transport and children’s schooling) to the global (e.g., nuclear non-proliferation and third world debt). This information was linked to information on the population’s religious and political activities, its general demographics, and donating and volunteering activities with civil society organisations

A method to suppress dielectric breakdowns in liquid argon ionization detectors for cathode to ground distances of several millimeters

We present a method to reach electric field intensity as high as 400 kV/cm in liquid argon for cathode-ground distances of several millimeters. This can be achieved by suppressing field emission from the cathode, overcoming limitations that we reported earlier

Educational studies of cosmic rays with telescope of Geiger-Muller counters

A group of high school students (XII Liceum) in the framework of the Roland Maze Project has built a compact telescope of three Geiger-Muller counters. The connection between the telescope and PC computer was also created and programed by students involved in the Project. This has allowed students to use their equipment to perform serious scientific measurements concerning the single cosmic ray muon flux at ground level and below. These measurements were then analyzed with the programs based on the 'nowadays' knowledge on statistics. An overview of the apparatus, methods and results were presented at several students conferences and recently won the first prize in a national competition of high school students scientific work. The telescope itself, in spite of its 'scientific' purposes, is built in such a way that it is hung on a wall in a school physics lab and counts muons continuously. This can help to raise the interest for studying physics among others. At present a few (3) groups of young participants of the Roland Maze Project have already built their own telescopes for their schools and some others are working on it. This work is a perfect example of what can be done by young people when respective opportunities are created by more experienced researchers and a little help and advice is given.Comment: 5 figures, 10 page

Cross-Correlation between UHECR Arrival Distribution and Large-Scale Structure

We investigate correlation between the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) and the large-scale structure (LSS) of the Universe by using statistical quantities which can find the angular scale of the correlation. The Infrared Astronomical Satellite Point Source Redshift Survey (IRAS PSCz) catalog of galaxies is adopted for LSS. We find a positive correlation of the highest energy events detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO) with the IRAS galaxies inside $z=0.018$ within the angular scale of $\sim 15^{\circ}$. This positive correlation observed in the southern sky implies that a significant fraction of the highest energy events comes from nearby extragalactic objects. We also analyze the data of the Akeno Giant Air Shower Array (AGASA) which observed the northern hemisphere, but the obvious signals of positive correlation with the galaxy distribution are not found. Since the exposure of the AGASA is smaller than the PAO, the cross-correlation in the northern sky should be tested using a larger number of events detected in the future. We also discuss the correlation using the all-sky combined data sets of both the PAO and AGASA, and find a significant correlation within $\sim 8^{\circ}$. These angular scales can constrain several models of intergalactic magnetic field. These cross-correlation signals can be well reproduced by a source model in which the distribution of UHECR sources is related to the IRAS galaxies.Comment: 21 pages,7 figure