The Role of Financial Factors in the Trade Collapse: A Skeptic's View

This paper explores the role of financial factors in the 2008-9 collapse of U.S. imports and exports. Using highly disaggregated international trade data, we examine whether the cross-sectoral variation in how much imports or exports fell during this episode can be explained by financial variables. To do this, we employ a wide variety of possible indicators, such as standard measures of trade credit and external finance dependence, proxies for shipping lags at the sector level, and shares of intra-firm trade in each sector. Overall, there is very little evidence that financial factors played a role in the collapse of U.S. trade.2008-2009 Crisis, International Trade, Financial Factors

The "Collapse in Quality" Hypothesis

This paper evaluates the hypothesis that during the 2008-2009 collapse in international trade, imports of higher quality goods experienced larger reductions compared to low-quality imports, using data on US imports disaggregated by HS-10 product category and source country. We find little, if any, robust econometric evidence in support of this hypothesis.

Biomarkers in the diagnosis and study of psychogenic nonepileptic seizures: A systematic review

AbstractObjectiveVideo electroencephalography (vEEG) is the gold-standard method for diagnosing psychogenic nonepileptic seizures (PNES), but such assessment is expensive, unavailable in many centers, requires prolonged hospitalization, and many times is unable to capture an actual seizure episode. This paper systematically reviews other non-vEEG candidate biomarkers that may facilitate both diagnosis and study of PNES as differentiated from epileptic seizures (ES).MethodsPubMed database was searched to identify articles between 1980 and 2015 (inclusion: adult PNES population with or without controls, English language; exclusion: review articles, meta-analyses, single case reports).ResultsA total of 49 studies were examined, including neuroimaging, autonomic nervous system, prolactin, other (non-prolactin) hormonal, enzyme, and miscellaneous marker studies. Functional MRI studies have shown PNES is hyperlinked with dissociation and emotional dysregulation centers in the brain, although conflicting findings are seen across studies and none used psychiatric comparators. Heart rate variability suggests increased vagal tone in PNES when compared to ES. Prolactin is elevated in ES but not PNES, although shows low diagnostic sensitivity. Postictal cortisol and creatine kinase are nonspecific. Other miscellaneous biomarkers (neuron specific enolase, brain derived neurotropic factor, ghrelin, leptin, leukocytosis) showed no conclusive evidence of utility. Many studies are limited by lack of psychiatric comparators, size, and other methodological issues.ConclusionNo single biomarker successfully differentiates PNES from ES; in fact, PNES is only diagnosed via the negation of ES. Clinical assessment and rigorous investigation of psychosocial variables specific to PNES remain critical, and subtyping of PNES is warranted. Future investigational and clinical imperatives are discussed

FIIs and Indian Stock Market: A Causality Investigation

While the volatility associated with portfolio capital flows is well known, there is also a concern that foreign institutional investors might introduce distortions in the host country markets due to the pressure on them to secure capital gains. In this context, present chapter attempts to find out the direction of causality between foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and performance of Indian stock market. To facilitate a better understanding of the causal linkage between FII flows and contemporaneous stock market returns (BSE National Index), a period of nineteen consecutive financial years ranging from January 1992 to December 2010 is selected. Granger Causality Test has been applied to test the direction of causality.Aczkolwiek brak stabilności związany z przepływami kapitału portfelowego jest dobrze znany, to istnieje również obawa, że zagraniczni inwestorzy instytucjonalni mogą wprowadzać zakłócenia na rynkach krajów przyjmujących z uwagi na wywieraną na nich presję, aby zapewniać zyski kapitałowe. W tym kontekście niniejszy rozdział próbuje poznać kierunek przyczynowości pomiędzy zagranicznymi inwestorami instytucjonalnymi (FIIs) i działaniem indyjskiej giełdy. Aby ułatwić lepsze zrozumienie związku przyczynowego między przepływami FII i mającymi miejsce w tym samym czasie wynikami giełdy papierów wartościowych (BSE National Index), wybrany został okres dziewiętnastu kolejnych lat począwszy od stycznia 1992 do grudnia 2010. Do zbadania kierunku przyczynowości zastosowano test przyczynowości Grangera

The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun

One of the most striking aspects of the recent recession is the collapse in international trade. This paper uses disaggregated data on U.S. imports and exports to shed light on the anatomy of this collapse. We find that the recent reduction in trade relative to overall economic activity is far larger than in previous downturns. Information on quantities and prices of both domestic absorption and imports reveals a 40% shortfall in imports, relative to what would be predicted by a simple import demand relationship. In a sample of imports and exports disaggregated at the 6-digit NAICS level, we find that sectors used as intermediate inputs experienced significantly higher percentage reductions in both imports and exports. We also find support for compositional effects: sectors with larger reductions in domestic output had larger drops in trade. By contrast, we find no support for the hypothesis that trade credit played a role in the recent trade collapse.