Modeling factors influencing the demand for emergency department services in ontario: a comparison of methods

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Emergency departments are medical treatment facilities, designed to provide episodic care to patients suffering from acute injuries and illnesses as well as patients who are experiencing sporadic flare-ups of underlying chronic medical conditions which require immediate attention. Supply and demand for emergency department services varies across geographic regions and time. Some persons do not rely on the service at all whereas; others use the service on repeated occasions. Issues regarding increased wait times for services and crowding illustrate the need to investigate which factors are associated with increased frequency of emergency department utilization. The evidence from this study can help inform policy makers on the appropriate mix of supply and demand targeted health care policies necessary to ensure that patients receive appropriate health care delivery in an efficient and cost-effective manner. The purpose of this report is to assess those factors resulting in increased demand for emergency department services in Ontario. We assess how utilization rates vary according to the severity of patient presentation in the emergency department. We are specifically interested in the impact that access to primary care physicians has on the demand for emergency department services. Additionally, we wish to investigate these trends using a series of novel regression models for count outcomes which have yet to be employed in the domain of emergency medical research.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data regarding the frequency of emergency department visits for the respondents of Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) during our study interval (2003-2005) are obtained from the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System (NACRS). Patients' emergency department utilizations were linked with information from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) which provides individual level medical, socio-demographic, psychological and behavioral information for investigating predictors of increased emergency department utilization. Six different multiple regression models for count data were fitted to assess the influence of predictors on demand for emergency department services, including: Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero-Inflated Poisson, Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial, Hurdle Poisson, and Hurdle Negative Binomial. Comparison of competing models was assessed by the Vuong test statistic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The CCHS cycle 2.1 respondents were a roughly equal mix of males (50.4%) and females (49.6%). The majority (86.2%) were young-middle aged adults between the ages of 20-64, living in predominantly urban environments (85.9%), with mid-high household incomes (92.2%) and well-educated, receiving at least a high-school diploma (84.1%). Many participants reported no chronic disease (51.9%), fell into a small number (0-5) of ambulatory diagnostic groups (62.3%), and perceived their health status as good/excellent (88.1%); however, were projected to have high Resource Utilization Band levels of health resource utilization (68.2%). These factors were largely stable for CCHS cycle 3.1 respondents. Factors influencing demand for emergency department services varied according to the severity of triage scores at initial presentation. For example, although a non-significant predictor of the odds of emergency department utilization in high severity cases, access to a primary care physician was a statistically significant predictor of the likelihood of emergency department utilization (OR: 0.69; 95% CI OR: 0.63-0.75) and the rate of emergency department utilization (RR: 0.57; 95% CI RR: 0.50-0.66) in low severity cases.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Using a theoretically appropriate hurdle negative binomial regression model this unique study illustrates that access to a primary care physician is an important predictor of both the odds and rate of emergency department utilization in Ontario. Restructuring primary care services, with aims of increasing access to undersupplied populations may result in decreased emergency department utilization rates by approximately 43% for low severity triage level cases.</p

Towards integration of general practitioner posts and accident and emergency departments: a case study of two integrated emergency posts in the Netherlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Accident and emergency (A&E) departments and general practitioner (GP) posts are often used inappropriately, leading to overcrowding. In the Netherlands, increasingly more integrated emergency posts (IEPs) are being created, integrating the care provided by GP posts and A&E departments, in order to improve the provision of the emergency care.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This explorative study compares the efficiency and patient and employee satisfaction in IEPs with those in two GP posts and two A&E departments. To this end, information was retrieved from hospital and GP patient records for the first quarter of the year before and of the year after the creation of IEPs. Patients and employees were sent a questionnaire to measure their satisfaction. Lastly, groups of hospital doctors, GPs, GP assistants, and nurses were interviewed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>After the creation of IEPs, there was a shift of more than fifteen percent from secondary care to primary care for emergency consultations and waiting/consultation times were shortened by more than ten percent. Compared with the control settings, patients were more satisfied about telephone contact with an IEP, but professionals working at the IEP were less satisfied with several aspects of their work.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>IEPs could be a promising innovation to organize emergency care more efficiently; however, it might take time to convince professionals of the possible advantages. Studies involving more IEPs and longer follow-up times are needed to determine whether such integration should be stimulated.</p

Out of hours care: a profile analysis of patients attending the emergency department and the general practitioner on call

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Overuse of emergency departments (ED) is of concern in Western society and it is often referred to as 'inappropriate' use. This phenomenon may compromise efficient use of health care personnel, infrastructure and financial resources of the ED. To redirect patients, an extensive knowledge of the experiences and attitudes of patients and their choice behaviour is necessary. The aim of this study is to quantify the patients and socio-economical determinants for choosing the general practitioner (GP) on call or the ED.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data collection was conducted simultaneously in 4 large cities in Belgium. All patients who visited EDs or used the services of the GP on call during two weekends in January 2005 were enrolled in the study in a prospective manner. We used semi-structured questionnaires to interview patients from both services.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>1611 patient contacts were suitable for further analysis. 640 patients visited the GP and 971 went to the ED. Determinants that associated with the choice of the ED are: being male, having visited the ED during the past 12 months at least once, speaking another language than Dutch or French, being of African (sub-Saharan as well as North African) nationality and no medical insurance. We also found that young men are more likely to seek help at the ED for minor trauma, compared to women.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Patients tend to seek help at the service they are acquainted with. Two populations that distinctively seek help at the ED for minor medical problems are people of foreign origin and men suffering minor trauma. Aiming at a redirection of patients, special attention should go to these patients. Informing them about the health services' specific tasks and the needlessness of technical examinations for minor trauma, might be a useful intervention.</p

Be careful with triage in emergency departments: interobserver agreement on 1,578 patients in France

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>For several decades, emergency departments (EDs) utilization has increased, inducing ED overcrowding in many countries. This phenomenon is related partly to an excessive number of nonurgent patients. To resolve ED overcrowding and to decrease nonurgent visits, the most common solution has been to triage the ED patients to identify potentially nonurgent patients, i.e. which could have been dealt with by general practitioner. The objective of this study was to measure agreement among ED health professionals on the urgency of an ED visit, and to determine if the level of agreement is consistent among different sub-groups based on following explicit criteria: age, medical status, type of referral to the ED, investigations performed in the ED, and the discharge from the ED.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a multicentric cross-sectional study to compare agreement between nurses and physicians on categorization of ED visits into urgent or nonurgent. Subgroups stratified by criteria characterizing the ED visit were analyzed in relation to the outcome of the visit.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 1,928 ED patients, 350 were excluded because data were lacking. The overall nurse-physician agreement on categorization was moderate (kappa = 0.43). The levels of agreement within all subgroups were variable and low. The highest agreement concerned three subgroups of complaints: cranial injury (kappa = 0.61), gynaecological (kappa = 0.66) and toxicology complaints (kappa = 1.00). The lowest agreement concerned two subgroups: urinary-nephrology (kappa = 0.09) and hospitalization (kappa = 0.20). When categorization of ED visits into urgent or nonurgent cases was compared to hospitalization, ED physicians had higher sensitivity and specificity than nurses (respectively 94.9% versus 89.5%, and 43.1% versus 30.9%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The lack of physician-nurse agreement and the inability to predict hospitalization have important implications for patient safety. When urgency screening is used to determine treatment priority, disagreement might not matter because all patients in the ED are seen and treated. But using assessments as the basis for refusal of care to potential nonurgent patients raises legal, ethical, and safety issues. Managed care organizations should be cautious when applying such criteria to restrict access to EDs.</p

Walk-ins seeking treatment at an emergency department or general practitioner out-of-hours service: a cross-sectional comparison

Background Emergency Departments (ED) in Switzerland are faced with increasing numbers of patients seeking non-urgent treatment. The high rate of walks-ins with conditions that may be treated in primary care has led to suggestions that those patients would best cared for in a community setting rather than in a hospital. Efficient reorganisation of emergency care tailored to patients needs requires information on the patient populations using the various emergency services currently available. The aim of this study is to evaluate the differences between the characteristics of walk-in patients seeking treatment at an ED and those of patients who use traditional out-of-hours GP (General Practitioner) services provided by a GP-Cooperative (GP-C). Methods In 2007 and 2009 data was collected covering all consecutive patient-doctor encounters at the ED of a hospital and all those occurring as a result of contacting a GP-C over two evaluation periods of one month each. Comparison was made between a GP-C and the ED of the Waid City Hospital in Zurich. Patient characteristics, time and source of referral, diagnostic interventions and mode of discharge were evaluated. Medical problems were classified according to the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC-2). Patient characteristics were compared using non-parametric tests and multiple logistic regression analysis was applied to investigate independent determinants for contacting a GP-C or an ED. Results Overall a total of 2974 patient encounters were recorded. 1901 encounters were walk-ins and underwent further analysis (ED 1133, GP-C 768). Patients consulting the GP-C were significantly older (58.9 vs. 43.8 years), more often female (63.5 vs. 46.9%) and presented with non-injury related medical problems (93 vs. 55.6%) in comparison with patients at the ED. Independent determining factors for ED consultation were injury, male gender and younger age. Walk-in distribution in both settings was equal over a period of 24 hours and most common during daytime hours (65%). Outpatient care was predominant in both settings but significantly more so at the GP-C (79.9 vs. 85.7%). Conclusions We observed substantial differences between the two emergency settings in a non gate-keeping health care system. Knowledge of the distribution of diagnoses, their therapy, of diagnostic measures and of the factors which determine the patients' choice of the ED or the GP-C is essential for the efficient allocation of resources and the reduction of costs

State of emergency medicine in Spain

Spain has universal public health care coverage. Emergency care provisions are offered to patients in different modalities and levels according to the characteristics of the medical complaint: at primary care centers (PCC), in an extrahospital setting by emergency medical services (EMS) and at hospital emergency departments (ED). We have more than 3,000 PCCs, which are run by family doctors (general practitioners) and pediatricians. On average, there is 1 PCC for every 15,000 to 20,000 inhabitants, and every family doctor is in charge of 1,500 to 2,000 citizens, although less populated zones tend to have lower ratios. Doctors spend part of their duty time in providing emergency care to their own patients. While not fully devoted to emergency medicine (EM) practice, they do manage minor emergencies. However, Spanish EMSs contribute hugely to guarantee population coverage in all situations. These EMS are run by EM technicians (EMT), nurses and doctors, who usually work exclusively in the emergency arena. EDs dealt with more than 25 million consultations in 2008, which implies, on average, that one out of two Spaniards visited an ED during this time. They are usually equipped with a wide range of diagnostic tools, most including ultrasonography and computerized tomography scans. The academic and training background of doctors working in the ED varies: nearly half lack any structured specialty residence training, but many have done specific master or postgraduate studies within the EM field. The demand for emergency care has grown at an annual rate of over 4% during the last decade. This percentage, which was greater than the 2% population increase during the same period, has outpaced the growth in ED capacity. Therefore, Spanish EDs become overcrowded when the system exerts minimal stress. Despite the high EM caseload and the potential severity of the conditions, training in EM is still unregulated in Spain. However, in April 2009 the Spanish Minister of Health announced the imminent approval of an EM specialty, allowing the first EM resident to officially start in 2011. Spanish emergency physicians look forward to the final approval, which will complete the modernization of emergency health care provision in Spain