Has the distribution of smoking across young adult transition milestones changed over the past 20 years? Evidence from the 1970 British Cohort Study (1996) and Next Steps (2015-16)

Introduction: Transitions into work and family life during young adulthood exacerbate differences in the progression of smoking over the life-course. Few have considered how changes in smoking and the transition to adulthood in the past two decades have influenced these relationships over time. Methods: We compared the distribution of smoking at ages 25–26 across transition milestones among 3764 men and 4568 women in the 1970 British Cohort study (1996) and 3426 men and 4281 women in the Next Steps study (2015–16). We regressed occasional and daily smoking status on educational attainment, economic activity, living arrangements, relationship status, and parenthood, adjusting for family background, socio-demographics, and smoking history. Results: There were few differences in associations between the 1996 and 2015-16 samples. Young men and women were less likely to smoke if they had higher education, were homeowners, and cohabited with a partner. Women were less likely to smoke occasionally if they were full-time students, and men were less likely to smoke daily if they were employed full-time and not living with children. However, comparing associations in 2015–16 to 1996: 1) in men, higher education had a weaker negative association and living with a partner had a stronger negative association with daily smoking; 2) in women, independently renting had a weaker positive association with daily smoking. Conclusions: Despite considerable changes in smoking and the transition to adulthood over the past two decades, the distribution of smoking at ages 25–26 across transition milestones has been relatively stable during this time period in Great Britain

Changes in Patterns of Social Role Combinations at Ages 25-26 among Those Growing Up in England between 1996 and 2015-16: Evidence from the 1970 British Cohort and Next Steps Studies

Changes across education, employment, and family life over the past 20 years challenges the capacity of previously established social role combinations to continue representing the experiences of young men and women born since the late 1980s. Latent class analysis was used to derive patterns of role combinations at ages 25-26 in those growing up in England, using data from 3191 men and 3921 women in the 1970 British Cohort Study (1996) and 3426 men and 4281 women in the Next Steps study born in 1989-90 (2015-16). Role combinations in 1996 were well defined by five patterns across genders: educated, work-oriented, traditional family, fragile family, and slow starters. Patterns in 2015-16 diverged across genders (e.g., disappearance of home ownership in the traditional family group among men and higher education as a group identifier among women) and included across genders fewer work-oriented, more slow starters, and a new group of "left behind" who are excluded from work and relationships. Young men and women born around 1990 experienced diverging role combinations characterized by increased delays and inequalities, with fewer being able to attain the milestones traditionally associated with the transition to adulthood by the mid-20s

Time trend analysis of social inequalities in psychological distress among young adults before and during the pandemic: evidence from the UK Household Longitudinal Study COVID-19 waves

BACKGROUND: Despite concerns about mental health problems among those aged 16-24 in England, which social groups have been most at risk, both over the past decade and during the COVID-19 pandemic, remains unclear. METHODS: We examined trends in psychological distress among young adults 16-24 years old in England using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. Using longitudinal data as repeated cross-sectional waves, we examined differences over time in mean General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) scores from wave 1 (2009-2010) to wave 10 (2018-2019) and six COVID-19 waves collected between April and November 2020, by economic activity, cohabitation with parents, parental education, area deprivation, ethnicity, age and sex. RESULTS: Compared with 2009-2010, increases in GHQ scores in 2018-2019 were higher in women than men (2.1 vs 1.3), those aged 16-18 than aged 22-24 (2.6 vs 0.9), those from white UK group versus other ethnic minorities, and those out of the labour force (3.6) or employed part time (2.2) than those employed full time (0.8). Compared with 2018-2019, psychological distress in 2020 also further increased among young adults residing in the most deprived areas (4.1 vs 1.2 in the least deprived areas). In 2020, losing one's job or most of one's work hours was associated with higher psychological distress and attenuated the differences between deprivation quartiles by 17%. CONCLUSION: In England, inequalities in psychological distress among young adults may have changed and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Investing in opportunities for young adults, particularly in more deprived areas, may be key to improve population levels of mental health

Mental distress among young adults in Great Britain: long-term trends and early changes during the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose: n Great Britain, few studies documented mental health trends in young adults in the years preceding 2020, the mental health dimensions affected, and how these compare with changes observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. // Methods: Long-term trends in mental health among 16–34 year old men and women between 1991 and 2018, and changes between 2018–19 and July–September 2020 were examined using all waves from the British Household Panel Study (1991–2008), the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2009–20), and the first five UKHLS COVID-19 waves administered in April, May, June, July, and September 2020. Findings are based on the GHQ-12 continuous score (0–36), clinically significant cases (4 + /12) and severe cases (7 + /12) for mental distress, and item endorsements. // Results: Between 1991 and 2018, the prevalence of cases (4 + /12) increased from 14–22% to 19–32% across groups. Increases were largest in women aged 16–24. In April 2020, the risk of caseness (4 + /12) increased across groups by 55% to 80% compared to the 2018–19 baseline. This increase, however, rapidly diminished over time: in July–September 2020, there was only a higher risk of caseness (4 + /12) in men aged 25–34 (prevalence ratio = 1.29, 95% CI 1.01–1.65) compared to the 2018–19 baseline. // Conclusion: Whereas distress surged in April 2020, its return to pre-pandemic levels by September 2020 highlights the nuanced impact that the pandemic may have over time. Given the magnitude of the decline in mental health over the past decade, attention must be given to young adults once the pandemic ends

Stability and Change in Adolescents’ Sense of Agency: Contributions of Sex, Multiple Risk, Pandemic Stress, and Attachment to Parents

Although literature states that individual, relational, and contextual factors contribute to adolescents’ sense of agency, more research is needed to clarify and understand how adolescents develop this belief over time. The current study examined the stability/change trajectories of the sense of agency during adolescence, specifically across high school, analyzing whether attachment to parents over time, adolescents’ sex, cumulative risk in baseline, and pandemic-related stress explained these trajectories. The sample included 467 Portuguese adolescents (40.7% were males; Mage = 15.58 years, SD = 0.80), evaluated three times across 18 months. This work yielded three significant findings. First, adolescents’ sense of agency significantly increased over time, with significant between-subject variance at the initial levels but not at the growth rate. Second, attachment to parents consistently links to adolescents’ sense of agency across time, despite the differential contributions from attachment to mothers and fathers. Third, boys reported greater growth in the sense of agency than girls. Adolescents’ cumulative risk at T1 predicted lower initial levels of sense of agency, whereas higher pandemic-related stress predicted less growth of the sense of agency. These findings emphasize the contributions of individual and family characteristics and the role of the broader social context in shaping the development of adolescents’ sense of agency. The findings underline the need to consider further the differential influences of adolescents’ relationships with mothers and fathers to understand changes in adolescents’ sense of agency

UTLS temperature validation of MPI-ESM decadal hindcast experiments with GPS radio occultations

Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) temperature data are used to validate MPI-ESM (Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model) decadal hindcast experiments in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region between 300 hPa and 10 hPa (8 km and 32 km) for the time period between 2002 and 2011. The GPSRO dataset is unique since it is very precise, calibration independent and covers the globe better than the usual radiosonde dataset. In addition it is vertically finer resolved than any of the existing satellite temperature measurements available for the UTLS and provides now a unique one decade long temperature validation dataset. The initialization of the MPI-ESM decadal hindcast runs mostly increases the skill of the atmospheric temperatures when compared to uninitialized climate projections with very high skill scores for lead-year one, and gradually decreases for the later lead-years. A comparison between two different initialization sets (b0, b1) of the low-resolution (LR) MPI-ESM shows increased skills in b1-LR in most parts of the UTLS in particular in the tropics. The medium resolution (MR) MPI-ESM initializations are characterized by reduced temperature biases in the uninitialized runs as compared to observations and a better capturing of the high latitude northern hemisphere interannual polar vortex variability as compared to the LR model version. Negative skills are found for the b1-MR hindcasts however in the regions around the mid-latitude tropospheric jets on both hemispheres and in the vicinity of the tropical tropopause in comparison to the b1-LR variant. It is interesting to highlight that none of the model experiments can reproduce the observed positive temperature trend in the tropical tropopause region since 2001 as seen by GPSRO data

Co-Development of Educational Expectations and Effort: Their Antecedents and Role as Predictors of Academic Success

This study examined the co-development of educational expectations and effort (conceptualized as indicators of individual agency) during secondary school and assessed their role as predictors of academic success, controlling for prior academic attainment and parental social background. Drawing on data collected for the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE), a nationally representative sample, the findings suggest reciprocal effects between expectations and effort, shaped by family SES and prior academic attainment. Agency is not a static construct, it is not fully determined by family SES and students adapt their functioning and choices in response to informative feedback loops