Flare‐generated shock evolution and geomagnetic storms during the “Halloween 2003 epoch”: 29 October to 2 November

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95151/1/jgra17876.pd

4pi Models of CMEs and ICMEs

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which dynamically connect the solar surface to the far reaches of interplanetary space, represent a major anifestation of solar activity. They are not only of principal interest but also play a pivotal role in the context of space weather predictions. The steady improvement of both numerical methods and computational resources during recent years has allowed for the creation of increasingly realistic models of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), which can now be compared to high-quality observational data from various space-bound missions. This review discusses existing models of CMEs, characterizing them by scientific aim and scope, CME initiation method, and physical effects included, thereby stressing the importance of fully 3-D ('4pi') spatial coverage.Comment: 14 pages plus references. Comments welcome. Accepted for publication in Solar Physics (SUN-360 topical issue

The Influence of Pickup Protons, from Interstellar Neutral Hydrogen, on the Propagation of Interplanetary Shocks from the Halloween 2003 Solar Events to ACE and Ulysses: A 3-D MHD Modeling Study

We describe our 3-D, time ]dependent, MHD solar wind model that we recently modified to include the physics of pickup protons from interstellar neutral hydrogen. The model has a time-dependent lower boundary condition, at 0.1 AU, that is driven by source surface map files through an empirical interface module. We describe the empirical interface and its parameter tuning to maximize model agreement with background (quiet) solar wind observations at ACE. We then give results of a simulation study of the famous Halloween 2003 series of solar events. We began with shock inputs from the Fearless Forecast real ]time shock arrival prediction study, and then we iteratively adjusted input shock speeds to obtain agreement between observed and simulated shock arrival times at ACE. We then extended the model grid to 5.5 AU and compared those simulation results with Ulysses observations at 5.2 AU. Next we undertook the more difficult tuning of shock speeds and locations to get matching shock arrival times at both ACE and Ulysses. Then we ran this last case again with neutral hydrogen density set to zero, to identify the effect of pickup ions. We show that the speed of interplanetary shocks propagating from the Sun to Ulysses is reduced by the effects of pickup protons. We plan to make further improvements to the model as we continue our benchmarking process to 10 AU, comparing our results with Cassini observations, and eventually on to 100 AU, comparing our results with Voyager 1 and 2 observations

The NOAA Real-Time Solar-Wind (RTSW) System Using ACE Data

The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) RTSW system is continuously monitoring the solar wind and produces warnings of impending major geomagnetic activity, up to one hour in advance. Warnings and alerts issued by NOAA allow those with systems sensitive to such activity to take preventative action. The RTSW system gathers solar wind and energetic particle data at high time resolution from four ACE instruments (MAG, SWEPAM, EPAM, and SIS), packs the data into a low-rate bit stream, and broadcasts the data continuously. NASA sends real-time data to NOAA each day when downloading science data. With a combination of dedicated ground stations (CRL in Japan and RAL in Great Britain), and time on existing ground tracking networks (NASA’s DSN and the USAF’s AFSCN), the RTSW system can receive data 24 hours per day throughout the year. The raw data are immediately sent from the ground station to the Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado, processed, and then delivered to its Space Weather Operations center where they are used in daily operations; the data are also delivered to the CRL Regional Warning Center at Hiraiso, Japan, to the USAF 55th Space Weather Squadron, and placed on the World Wide Web. The data are downloaded, processed and dispersed within 5 min from the time they leave ACE. The RTSW system also uses the low-energy energetic particles to warn of approaching interplanetary shocks, and to help monitor the flux of high-energy particles that can produce radiation damage in satellite systems