Inferring hidden Markov models from noisy time sequences: a method to alleviate degeneracy in molecular dynamics

We present a new method for inferring hidden Markov models from noisy time sequences without the necessity of assuming a model architecture, thus allowing for the detection of degenerate states. This is based on the statistical prediction techniques developed by Crutchfield et al., and generates so called causal state models, equivalent to hidden Markov models. This method is applicable to any continuous data which clusters around discrete values and exhibits multiple transitions between these values such as tethered particle motion data or Fluorescence Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) spectra. The algorithms developed have been shown to perform well on simulated data, demonstrating the ability to recover the model used to generate the data under high noise, sparse data conditions and the ability to infer the existence of degenerate states. They have also been applied to new experimental FRET data of Holliday Junction dynamics, extracting the expected two state model and providing values for the transition rates in good agreement with previous results and with results obtained using existing maximum likelihood based methods.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figure

Invasive Pathogen Threatens Bird-Pine Mutualism: Implications for Sustaining a High-Elevation Ecosystem

Human-caused disruptions to seed-dispersal mutualisms increase the extinction risk for both plant and animal species. Large-seeded plants can be particularly vulnerable due to highly specialized dispersal systems and no compensatory regeneration mechanisms. Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis), a keystone subalpine species, obligately depends upon the Clark\u27s Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) for dispersal of its large, wingless seeds. Clark\u27s Nutcracker, a facultative mutualist with whitebark pine, is sensitive to rates of energy gain, and emigrates from subalpine forests during periods of cone shortages. The invasive fungal pathogen Cronartium ribicola, which causes white pine blister rust, reduces whitebark pine cone production by killing cone-bearing branches and trees. Mortality from blister rust reaches 90% or higher in some whitebark pine forests in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA, and the rust now occurs nearly rangewide in whitebark pine. Our objectives were to identify the minimum level of cone production necessary to elicit seed dispersal by nutcrackers and to determine how cone production is influenced by forest structure and health. We quantified forest conditions and ecological interactions between nutcrackers and whitebark pine in three Rocky Mountain ecosystems that differ in levels of rust infection and mortality. Both the frequency of nutcracker occurrence and probability of seed dispersal were strongly related to annual whitebark pine cone production, which had a positive linear association with live whitebark pine basal area, and negative linear association with whitebark pine tree mortality and rust infection. From our data, we estimated that a threshold level of similar to 1000 cones/ha is needed for a high likelihood of seed dispersal by nutcrackers ( probability \u3e= 0.7), and that this level of cone production can be met by forests with live whitebark pine basal area \u3e5.0 m(2)/ha. The risk of mutualism disruption is greatest in northernmost Montana ( USA), where three-year mean cone production and live basal area fell below predicted threshold levels. There, nutcracker occurrence, seed dispersal, and whitebark pine regeneration were the lowest of the three ecosystems. Managers can use these threshold values to differentiate between restoration sites requiring planting of rust-resistant seedlings and sites where nutcracker seed dispersal can be expected

Clones assemble! The clonal complexity of blood during ontogeny and disease.

Hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) govern the daily expansion and turnover of billions of specialized blood cells. Given their clinical utility, much effort has been made toward understanding the dynamics of hematopoietic production from this pool of stem cells. An understanding of hematopoietic stem cell clonal dynamics during blood ontogeny could yield important insights into hematopoietic regulation, especially during aging and repeated exposure to hematopoietic stress-insults that may predispose individuals to the development of hematopoietic disease. Here, we review the current state of research regarding the clonal complexity of the hematopoietic system during embryogenesis, adulthood, and hematologic disease