The impact of IFRS 15 on analysts’ forecast accuracy

Abstract. The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of IFRS 15 on analysts’ forecast accuracy. IFRS 15 ‘Revenue from Contracts with Customers’ came into effect 1 January 2018. The five-step model of revenue recognition required by the new accounting standard will likely change the timing and amount of revenue to be recognized from customer contracts that contain multiple performance obligations and where revenue is recognized over time. This change in accounting practices for revenue has the potential to affect the accuracy of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) and sales forecasts. The impact of IFRS 15 will be most clearly observable in industries that commonly engage in bundled contracts and long-term projects as these types of contracts are likely candidates for change in their accounting treatment. This research focuses on the changes in forecast accuracy for companies operating in such industries. The research findings show that IFRS 15 has no impact on the accuracy of analysts’ EPS forecasts. However, for the sales forecasts the research results show that IFRS 15 increases forecast errors for the sample group of companies. The findings suggest that the implementation of a new accounting standard causes a temporary decrease in analysts’ forecast accuracy

Turnstile behaviour of the Cooper-pair pump

We have experimentally studied the behaviour of the so-called Cooper pair pump (CPP) with three Josephson junctions, in the limit of small Josephson coupling EJ < EC. These experiments show that the CPP can be operated as a traditional turnstile device yielding a gate-induced current 2ef in the direction of the bias voltage, by applying an RF-signal with frequency f to the two gates in phase, while residing at the degeneracy node of the gate plane. Accuracy of the CPP during this kind of operation was about 3% and the fundamental Landau-Zener limit was observed to lie above 20 MHz. We have also measured the current pumped through the array by rotating around the degeneracy node in the gate plane. We show that this reproduces the turnstile-kind of behavior. To overcome the contradiction between the obtained e-periodic DC-modulation and a pure 2e-behaviour in the RF-measurements, we base our observations on a general principle that the system always minimises its energy. It suggests that if the excess quasiparticles in the system have a freedom to tunnel, they will organize themselves to the configuration yielding the highest current.Comment: 29 pages, 16 figures, uses REVTeX and graphicx-packag

Observation of transition from escape dynamics to underdamped phase diffusion in a Josephson junction

We have investigated the dynamics of underdamped Josephson junctions. In addition to the usual crossover between macroscopic quantum tunnelling and thermally activated (TA) behaviour we observe in our samples with relatively small Josephson coupling E_J, for the first time, the transition from TA behaviour to underdamped phase diffusion. Above the crossover temperature the threshold for switching into the finite voltage state becomes extremely sharp. We propose a (T,E_J) phase-diagram with various regimes and show that for a proper description of it dissipation and level quantization in a metastable well are crucial.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Shot-noise-driven escape in hysteretic Josephson junctions

We have measured the influence of shot noise on hysteretic Josephson junctions initially in macroscopic quantum tunnelling (MQT) regime. Escape threshold current into the resistive state decreases monotonically with increasing average current through the scattering conductor, which is another tunnel junction. Escape is predominantly determined by excitation due to the wide-band shot noise. This process is equivalent to thermal activation (TA) over the barrier at temperatures up to about four times above the critical temperature of the superconductor. The presented TA model is in excellent agreement with the experimental results

Weak coupling Josephson junction as a current probe: effect of dissipation on escape dynamics

We have studied the temperature dependence of escape phenomena in various underdamped Josephson junctions (JJs). The junctions had different Josephson coupling energies EJ which were relatively small, but larger than the charging energy EC. Upon increasing the temperature T, we first observe the usual cross-over between macroscopic quantum tunnelling and thermally activated (TA) behaviour at temperatures kBT ~ planckωp, where ωp is the plasma frequency of the junction. Increasing T further, the width of the switching current distribution has, counterintuitively, a non-monotonic temperature dependence. This can be explained by the novel cross-over from TA behaviour to underdamped phase diffusion. We show that this cross-over is expected to occur at temperatures such that kBT ~ EJ(1 − 4/πQ)3/2, where Q is the quality factor of the junction at the plasma frequency, in agreement with experiment. Our findings can be compared with detailed model calculations which take into account dissipation and level quantization in a metastable well. Particular attention is paid to the sample with the smallest EJ, which shows extensive phase diffusion even at the lowest temperatures. This sample consists of a dc-SQUID and a single JJ close to each other, such that the SQUID acts as a tunable inductive protection for the single junction from fluctuations of a dissipative environment. By varying the flux through the dc-SQUID, we present, for the first time, experimental evidence of the escape of a JJ from the phase diffusion regime to the free running state in a tunable environment. We also show that in the zero voltage state the losses mainly occur at frequencies near the plasmaPeer reviewe

Hydrostatic Level Sensors as High Precision Ground Motion Instrumentation for Tevatron and Other Energy Frontier Accelerators

Particle accelerators pushed the limits of our knowledge in search of the answers to most fundamental questions about micro-world and our Universe. In these pursuits, accelerators progressed to higher and higher energies and particle beam intensities as well as increasingly smaller and smaller beam sizes. As the result, modern existing and planned energy frontier accelerators demand very tight tolerances on alignment and stability of their elements: magnets, accelerating cavities, vacuum chambers, etc. In this article we describe the instruments developed for and used in such accelerators as Fermilab's Tevatron (FNAL, Batavia, IL USA) and for the studies toward an International Linear Collider (ILC). The instrumentation includes Hydrostatic Level Sensors (HLS) for very low frequency measurements. We present design features of the sensors, outline their technical parameters, describe test and calibration procedures and discuss different regimes of operation. Experimental results of the ground motion measurements with these detectors will be presented in subsequent paper

Prenatal maternal plasma DNA screening for cystic fibrosis: A computer modelling study of screening performance.

Background: Prenatal cystic fibrosis (CF) screening is currently based on determining the carrier status of both parents. We propose a new method based only on the analysis of DNA in maternal plasma. Methods: The method relies on the quantitative amplification of the CF gene to determine the percentage of DNA fragments in maternal plasma at targeted CF mutation sites that carry a CF mutation. Computer modelling was carried out to estimate the distributions of these percentages in pregnancies with and without a fetus affected with CF. This was done according to the number of DNA fragments counted and fetal fraction, using the 23 CF mutations recommended by the American College of Medical Genetics for parental carrier testing. Results: The estimated detection rate (sensitivity) is 70% (100% of those detected using the 23 mutations), the false-positive rate 0.002%, and the odds of being affected given a positive screening result 14:1, compared with 70%, 0.12%, and 1:3, respectively, with current prenatal screening based on parental carrier testing. Conclusions: Compared with current screening practice based on parental carrier testing, the proposed method would substantially reduce the number of invasive diagnostic procedures (amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling) without reducing the CF detection rate. The expected advantages of the proposed method justify carrying out the necessary test development for use in a clinical validation study.The author(s) declared that no grants were involved in supporting this work