CHASE-PL—Future Hydrology Data Set: Projections of Water Balance and Streamflow for the Vistula and Odra Basins, Poland

There is considerable concern that the water resources of Central and Eastern Europe region can be adversely affected by climate change. Projections of future water balance and streamflow conditions can be obtained by forcing hydrological models with the output from climate models. In this study, we employed the SWAT hydrological model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for the Vistula and Odra basins in two future horizons (2024–2050 and 2074–2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The data set consists of three parts: (1) model inputs; (2) raw model outputs; (3) aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The third one consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. The data set should be of interest of climate impact scientists, water managers and water-sector policy makers. In any case, it should be noted that projections included in this data set are associated with high uncertainties explained in this data descriptor paper

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Evidence shows that soil moisture (SM) anomalies (deficits or excesses) are the key factor affecting crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. Over last decades, Poland has faced several major droughts and at least one major soil moisture excess event leading to severe crop losses. This study aims to simulate the multi-annual variability of SM anomalies in Poland, using a process-based SWAT model and to assess the effect of climate change on future extreme SM conditions, potentially affecting crop yields in Poland. A crop-specific indicator based on simulated daily soil moisture content for the critical development stages of investigated crops (winter cereals, spring cereals, potato and maize) was designed, evaluated for past conditions against empirical crop-weather indices (CWIs), and applied for studying future climate conditions. The study used an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for two future horizons: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5. Historical simulation results showed that SWAT was capable of capturing major SM deficit and excess episodes for different crops in Poland. For spring cereals, potato and maize, despite a large model spread, projections generally showed increase of severity of soil moisture deficits, as well as of total area affected by them. Ensemble median fraction of land with extreme soil moisture deficits, occupied by each of these crops, is projected to at least double in size. The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize were more dependent on selection of RCP and future horizon. © 2020, The Author(s)

Effect of Climate Change on Hydrology, Sediment and Nutrient Losses in Two Lowland Catchments in Poland

Future climate change is projected to have significant impact on water resources availability and quality in many parts of the world. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of projected climate change on water quantity and quality in two lowland catchments (the Upper Narew and the Barycz) in Poland in two future periods (near future: 2021–2050, and far future: 2071– 2100). The hydrological model SWAT was driven by climate forcing data from an ensemble of nine bias-corrected General Circulation Models—Regional Climate Models (GCM-RCM) runs based on the Coordinated Downscaling Experiment—European Domain (EURO-CORDEX). Hydrological response to climate warming and wetter conditions (particularly in winter and spring) in both catchments includes: lower snowmelt, increased percolation and baseflow and higher runoff. Seasonal differences in the response between catchments can be explained by their properties (e.g., different thermal conditions and soil permeability). Projections suggest only moderate increases in sediment loss, occurring mainly in summer and winter. A sharper increase is projected in both catchments for TN losses, especially in the Barycz catchment characterized by a more intensive agriculture. The signal of change in annual TP losses is blurred by climate model uncertainty in the Barycz catchment, whereas a weak and uncertain increase is projected in the Upper Narew catchment

Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well

VAT carousel crimes

Praca przedstawia w sposób syntetyczny problematykę przestępstw dokonywanych poprzez nadużywanie mechanizmów w podatku od towarów i usług, potocznie znanych jako przestępstwa karuzelowe albo karuzele podatkowe. Przedmiotowa praca składa się z analizy jakościowej zjawiska, w której na podstawie działalności orzeczniczej sądów oraz poglądów doktryny. Ponadto w niniejszej pracy poruszony został problem kwalifikacji prawnej czynów dokonywanych w ramach karuzeli oraz parametrów wskazujących na wielkość badanego zjawiska. Praca zawiera również dostępne instrumentarium, które służy redukcji wskazanych zachowań przestępczych.This thesis in comprehensive way presents the issue of crimes related to mechanism from Goods and Services Tax Act, which are commonly known as carousel crimes or VAT carousel carousel frauds. The thesis comprises of qualitative analysis of the matter based on judicial decisions and jurisprudence and legal framework. Moreover the following study presents the issue of legal classification of punishable acts and a measuring parametr indicating the scale of VAT carousel crimes. Following thesis shows also legal instruments, that reduces the number of criminal activity connected carousel fraud

Improvement of Hydrological Simulations by Applying Daily Precipitation Interpolation Schemes in Meso-Scale Catchments

Ground-based precipitation data are still the dominant input type for hydrological models. Spatial variability in precipitation can be represented by spatially interpolating gauge data using various techniques. In this study, the effect of daily precipitation interpolation methods on discharge simulations using the semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model over a 30-year period is examined. The study was carried out in 11 meso-scale (119–3935 km2) sub-catchments lying in the Sulejów reservoir catchment in central Poland. Four methods were tested: the default SWAT method (Def) based on the Nearest Neighbour technique, Thiessen Polygons (TP), Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) and Ordinary Kriging (OK). =The evaluation of methods was performed using a semi-automated calibration program SUFI-2 (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Procedure Version 2) with two objective functions: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the adjusted R2 coefficient (bR2). The results show that: (1) the most complex OK method outperformed other methods in terms of NSE; and (2) OK, IDW, and TP outperformed Def in terms of bR2. The median difference in daily/monthly NSE between OK and Def/TP/IDW calculated across all catchments ranged between 0.05 and 0.15, while the median difference between TP/IDW/OK and Def ranged between 0.05 and 0.07. The differences between pairs of interpolation methods were, however, spatially variable and a part of this variability was attributed to catchment properties: catchments characterised by low station density and low coefficient of variation of daily flows experienced more pronounced improvement resulting from using interpolation methods. Methods providing higher precipitation estimates often resulted in a better model performance. The implication from this study is that appropriate consideration of spatial precipitation variability (often neglected by model users) that can be achieved using relatively simple interpolation methods can significantly improve the reliability of model simulations

Projections of water balance and streamflow for the Vistula and Odra basins (correction of aggregated model outputs)

This data set is a minor correction to the original CHASE-PL Future Hydrology dataset published in 4TU Centre for Research Data in 2017 (https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:931bc857-9261-4bd8-b76c-ce5586948df3) and described in the data descriptor article (https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5729/2/2/14). It was comprised of future projections of hydrological variables obtained with the help of the SWAT model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations for the Vistula and Odra basins. A bug was identified in the AggregatedModelOutputs.zip file containing multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. In the present version the file structure remains unchanged, while the values have been corrected. Three other major files of the CPL-FH dataset (ClimateScenarios.zip, RawModelOutputs.zip and Txtinout.zip) are not a part of this correction

Projections of water balance and streamflow for the Vistula and Odra basins

This data set is comprised of future projections of hydrological variables obtained with the help of the SWAT model driven with an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX climate simulations for the Vistula and Odra basins. Projected data are available for two future horizons (2024-2050 and 2074-2100) under two Representative Concentrations Pathways: RCP 4.5 and 8.5, as well as for the reference period 1974-2000. The data set consists of three parts: (1) model inputs; (2) raw model outputs; (3) aggregated model outputs. The first one allows the users to reproduce the outputs or to create the new ones. The second one contains the simulated time series of 10 variables simulated by SWAT: precipitation, snow melt, potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil water content, percolation, surface runoff, baseflow, water yield and streamflow. The first nine variables are stored in monthly time step, and the latter in the daily time step. The third part consists of the multi-model ensemble statistics of the relative changes in mean seasonal and annual variables developed in a GIS format. NOTE: There is a partial new version of this dataset at <https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:2514e005-fd86-4930-83dd-0db5d8f7b5b0

CPLFD-GDPT5: High-resolution gridded daily precipitation and temperature data set for two largest Polish river basins

The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Forcing Data–Gridded Daily Precipitation & Temperature Dataset–5 km (CPLFD-GDPT5) consists of 1951–2013 daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals interpolated onto a 5 km grid based on daily meteorological observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB; Polish stations), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German and Czech stations), and European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECAD) and National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration–National Climatic Data Center (NOAA-NCDC) (Slovak, Ukrainian, and Belarusian stations). The main purpose for constructing this product was the need for long-term aerial precipitation and temperature data for earth-system modelling, especially hydrological modelling. The spatial coverage is the union of the Vistula and Oder basins and Polish territory. The number of available meteorological stations for precipitation and temperature varies in time from about 100 for temperature and 300 for precipitation in the 1950s up to about 180 for temperature and 700 for precipitation in the 1990s. The precipitation data set was corrected for snowfall and rainfall under-catch with the Richter method. The interpolation methods were kriging with elevation as external drift for temperatures and indicator kriging combined with universal kriging for precipitation. The kriging cross validation revealed low root-mean-squared errors expressed as a fraction of standard deviation (SD): 0.54 and 0.47 for minimum and maximum temperature, respectively, and 0.79 for precipitation. The correlation scores were 0.84 for minimum temperatures, 0.88 for maximum temperatures, and 0.65 for precipitation. The CPLFD-GDPT5 product is consistent with 1971–2000 climatic data published by IMGW-PIB. We also confirm good skill of the product for hydrological modelling by performing an application using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Vistula and Oder basins

G2DC-PL+ A gridded 2 km daily climate dataset for the union of Polish territory and the Vistula and Odra basins

The G2DC-PL+ is a 2 km gridded daily climate dataset for the union of Polish territory and the Vistula and Odra basins, constructed with the purpose of using it as forcing data for various kinds of environmental models. It is an update and extension of the CPLFD-GDPT5 dataset (doi: 10.4121/uuid:e939aec0-bdd1-440f-bd1e-c49ff10d0a07). It includes five variables: precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. Interpolation was performed using geostatistical techniques such as kriging with external drift, universal kriging and indicator kriging. Raw input data (daily station-based time series) were acquired from various providers: IMGW-PIB (area of Poland), ECA&D and NOAA-NCDC (neighbouring countries). Data are available at three temporal aggregations (daily, monthly and annual). Nine NetCDF files, each for the period 1951-2019, are made available