Using the ECMWF OpenIFS model and state-of-the-art training techniques in meteorological education

The OpenIFS programme of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) maintains a version of the ECMWF forecast model (IFS; Integrated Forecasting System) for use in education and research at universities, national meteorological services and other institutes. The OpenIFS model can be run on high-performance computing systems, desktop or laptop computers to produce weather forecasts in a similar way to the operational forecasts at ECMWF. Application of OpenIFS as a training tool is wide ranging. At several universities, masters students are taught modelling aspects via sensitivity studies, such as numerical stability, impact of spatial resolution and physical parameterisation settings on the forecast quality. The OpenIFS single column model is used to study a subset of physical processes in the atmosphere. Participants of the OpenIFS user workshops are trained through selected weather events on interpretation of different forecasts, for example ensemble forecasts, probabilistic information, seasonal forecasts. The OpenIFS user meetings and training events demonstrate advanced and easy-to-use graphical tools and training technologies. Metview is developed to analyse, visualise and evaluate the forecast outputs. OpenIFS and Metview “virtual machines” relieve the tutors from the difficulties often found in installing this software on the local computing environment. They provide data, applications and documents in a package tested in-house and deployed easily to another site. A further step on virtualisation is utilising cloud servers, ensuring the computational resources demanded by model runs are available in the cloud space. This paper shows the education activity in the OpenIFS programme with some examples.</p

The future climate characteristics of the Carpathian Basin based on a regional climate model mini-ensemble

Four regional climate models (RCMs) were adapted in Hungary for the dynamical downscaling of the global climate projections over the Carpathian Basin: (i) the ALADIN-Climate model developed by Météo France on the basis of the ALADIN short-range modelling system; (ii) the PRECIS model available from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre; (iii) the RegCM model originally developed at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, is maintained at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste; and (iv) the REMO model developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. The RCMs are different in terms of dynamical model formulation, physical parameterisations; moreover, in the completed simulations they use different spatial resolutions, integration domains and lateral boundary conditions for the scenario experiments. Therefore, the results of the four RCMs can be considered as a small ensemble providing information about various kinds of uncertainties in the future projections over the target area, i.e., Hungary. After the validation of the temperature and precipitation patterns against measurements, mean changes and some extreme characteristics of these patterns (including their statistical significance) have been assessed focusing on the periods of 2021&ndash;2050 and 2071&ndash;2100 relative to the 1961&ndash;1990 model reference period. The ensemble evaluation indicates that the temperature-related changes of the different RCMs are in good agreement over the Carpathian Basin and these tendencies manifest in the general warming conditions. The precipitation changes cannot be identified so clearly: seasonally large differences can be recognised among the projections and between the two periods. An overview is given about the results of the mini-ensemble and special emphasis is put on estimating the uncertainties in the simulations for Hungary

Diagnostic study of the influence of lateral boundary conditions for the REMO RCM simulations over the Carpathian Basin

At the Hungarian Meteorological Service, two experiments were accomplished with the REMO5.0 regional climate model: (1) a simulation of a past period from 1961 to 2000, driven by the ECMWF ERA40 re-analysis data, and (2) a transient run from 1951 to 2100 driven by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global coupled atmosphere-ocean model using SRES A1B forcing. The integration domain covers continental Europe with 25 km horizontal resolution in both experiments. Present article is dedicated to the investigation of the simulation results for the past period. The results for 1961&ndash;1990 were compared on the one hand with observations, and on the other hand, with each other and the corresponding global fields in order to assess the impact of the different lateral boundary conditions on the results focusing on the area of our interest, i.e., Hungary. The evaluation indicated that the re-analysis driven experiment provides warm and in summer dry past climate over the Carpathian Basin, whereas lower temperature and higher precipitation values are obtained when the lateral boundary information is derived from a global climate model. Based on the validation, it is concluded that the temperature characteristics in the simulation-driven case outperformed the experiment forced by quasi-perfect (i.e., re-analysis) data, however, similar apparent conclusion cannot be drawn for precipitation. This paper is undertaking to give deeper insight into the details and possible reasons for these outcomes