Lack of sufficiently strong informative features limits the potential of gene expression analysis as predictive tool for many clinical classification problems

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Our goal was to examine how various aspects of a gene signature influence the success of developing multi-gene prediction models. We inserted gene signatures into three real data sets by altering the expression level of existing probe sets. We varied the number of probe sets perturbed (signature size), the fold increase of mean probe set expression in perturbed compared to unperturbed data (signature strength) and the number of samples perturbed. Prediction models were trained to identify which cases had been perturbed. Performance was estimated using Monte-Carlo cross validation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Signature strength had the greatest influence on predictor performance. It was possible to develop almost perfect predictors with as few as 10 features if the fold difference in mean expression values were > 2 even when the spiked samples represented 10% of all samples. We also assessed the gene signature set size and strength for 9 real clinical prediction problems in six different breast cancer data sets.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found sufficiently large and strong predictive signatures only for distinguishing ER-positive from ER-negative cancers, there were no strong signatures for more subtle prediction problems. Current statistical methods efficiently identify highly informative features in gene expression data if such features exist and accurate models can be built with as few as 10 highly informative features. Features can be considered highly informative if at least 2-fold expression difference exists between comparison groups but such features do not appear to be common for many clinically relevant prediction problems in human data sets.</p

Maximum predictive power of the microarray-based models for clinical outcomes is limited by correlation between endpoint and gene expression profile

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Microarray data have been used for gene signature selection to predict clinical outcomes. Many studies have attempted to identify factors that affect models' performance with only little success. Fine-tuning of model parameters and optimizing each step of the modeling process often results in over-fitting problems without improving performance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We propose a quantitative measurement, termed consistency degree, to detect the correlation between disease endpoint and gene expression profile. Different endpoints were shown to have different consistency degrees to gene expression profiles. The validity of this measurement to estimate the consistency was tested with significance at a p-value less than 2.2e-16 for all of the studied endpoints. According to the consistency degree score, overall survival milestone outcome of multiple myeloma was proposed to extend from 730 days to 1561 days, which is more consistent with gene expression profile.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>For various clinical endpoints, the maximum predictive powers of different microarray-based models are limited by the correlation between endpoint and gene expression profile of disease samples as indicated by the consistency degree score. In addition, previous defined clinical outcomes can also be reassessed and refined more coherent according to related disease gene expression profile. Our findings point to an entirely new direction for assessing the microarray-based predictive models and provide important information to gene signature based clinical applications.</p

Evaluation of sensitivity to endocrine herapy index (SET2,3) for response to neoadjuvant endocrine therapy and longer-term breast cancer patient outcomes (Alliance Z1031)

PURPOSE: To evaluate prediction of response and event-free survival (EFS) following neoadjuvant endocrine therapy by SET2,3 index of nonproliferation gene expression related to estrogen and progesterone receptors adjusted for baseline prognosis. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: A correlative study was conducted of SET2,3 measured from gene expression profiles of diagnostic tumor (Agilent microarrays) in 379 women with cStage II-III breast cancer from the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z1031 neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitor trial SET2,3 was dichotomized using the previously published cutoff. Fisher exact test was used to assess the association between SET2,3 and low proliferation at week 2-4 [Ki67 ≤ 10% or complete cell-cycle arrest (CCCA; Ki67 ≤ 2.7%)] and PEPI-0 rate in cohort B, and the association between SET2,3 and ypStage 0/I in all patients. Cox models were used to assess EFS with respect to SET2,3 excluding cohort B patients who switched to chemotherapy. RESULTS: Patients with high SET2,3 had higher rate of pharmacodynamic response than patients with low SET2,3 (Ki67 ≤ 10% in 88.2% vs. 56.9%, P \u3c 0.0001; CCCA in 50.0% vs. 26.2%, P = 0.0054), but rate of ypStage 0/I (24.0% vs. 20.4%, P = 0.4580) or PEPI = 0 (28.4% vs. 20.6%, P = 0.3419) was not different. Patients with high SET2,3 had longer EFS than patients with low SET2,3 (HR, 0.52, 95% confidence interval: 0.34-0.80; P = 0.0026). CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory analysis of Z1031 data demonstrated a higher rate of pharmacodynamic suppression of proliferation and longer EFS in high SET2,3 disease relative to low SET2,3 disease. The ypStage 0/I rate and PEPI = 0 rate were similar with respect to SET2,3

Targeted RNAseq assay incorporating unique molecular identifiers for improved quantification of gene expression signatures and transcribed mutation fraction in fixed tumor samples.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to assess whether modifications to a customized targeted RNA sequencing (RNAseq) assay to include unique molecular identifiers (UMIs) that collapse read counts to their source mRNA counts would improve quantification of transcripts from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumor tissue samples. The assay (SET4) includes signatures that measure hormone receptor and PI3-kinase related transcriptional activity (SET METHODS: Modifications included steps to introduce eight nucleotides-long UMIs during reverse transcription (RT) in bulk solution, followed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of labeled cDNA in droplets, with optimization of the polymerase enzyme and reaction conditions. We used Lin\u27s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to measure concordance, including precision (Rho) and accuracy (Bias), and nonparametric tests (Wilcoxon, Levene\u27s) to compare the modified (NEW) SET4 assay to the original (OLD) SET4 assay and to whole transcriptome RNAseq using RNA from matched fresh frozen (FF) and FFPE samples from 12 primary breast cancers. RESULTS: The modified (NEW) SET4 assay measured single transcripts (p\u3c 0.001) and SET CONCLUSIONS: Modifications to the targeted RNAseq protocol for SET4 assay significantly increased the precision of UMI-based and reads-based measurements of individual transcripts, multi-gene signatures, and mutant transcript fraction, particularly with FFPE samples

Evaluation of biological pathways involved in chemotherapy response in breast cancer

INTRODUCTION: Our goal was to examine the association between biological pathways and response to chemotherapy in estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) and ER-negative (ER-) breast tumors separately. METHODS: Gene set enrichment analysis including 852 predefined gene sets was applied to gene expression data from 51 ER- and 82 ER+ breast tumors that were all treated with a preoperative paclitaxel, 5-fluoruracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy. RESULTS: Twenty-seven (53%) ER- and 7 (9%) ER+ patients had pathologic complete response (pCR) to therapy. Among the ER- tumors, a proliferation gene signature (false discovery rate [FDR] q = 0.1), the genomic grade index (FDR q = 0.044), and the E2F3 pathway signature (FDR q = 0.22, P = 0.07) were enriched in the pCR group. Among the ER+ tumors, the proliferation signature (FDR q = 0.001) and the genomic grade index (FDR q = 0.015) were also significantly enriched in cases with pCR. Ki67 expression, as single gene marker of proliferation, did not provide the same information as the entire proliferation signature. An ER-associated gene set (FDR q = 0.03) and a mutant p53 gene signature (FDR q = 0.0019) were enriched in ER+ tumors with residual cancer. CONCLUSION: Proliferation- and genomic grade-related gene signatures are associated with chemotherapy sensitivity in both ER- and ER+ breast tumors. Genes involved in the E2F3 pathway are associated with chemotherapy sensitivity among ER- tumors. The mutant p53 signature and expression of ER-related genes were associated with lower sensitivity to chemotherapy in ER+ breast tumors only.Journal ArticleResearch Support, N.I.H. ExtramuralResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tSCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Evaluation of a 30-gene paclitaxel, fluorouracil, doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy response predictor in a multicenter randomized trial in breast cancer

PurposeWe examined in a prospective, randomized, international clinical trial the performance of a previously defined 30-gene predictor (DLDA-30) of pathologic complete response (pCR) to preoperative weekly paclitaxel and fluorouracil, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide (T/FAC) chemotherapy, and assessed if DLDA-30 also predicts increased sensitivity to FAC-only chemotherapy. We compared the pCR rates after T/FAC versus FAC×6 preoperative chemotherapy. We also performed an exploratory analysis to identify novel candidate genes that differentially predict response in the two treatment arms.Experimental Design273 patients were randomly assigned to receive either weekly paclitaxel × 12 followed by FAC × 4 (T/FAC, n=138), or FAC × 6 (n=135) neoadjuvant chemotherapy. All patients underwent a pretreatment FNA biopsy of the tumor for gene expression profiling and treatment response prediction.ResultsThe pCR rates were 19% and 9% in the T/FAC and FAC arms, respectively (p<0.05). In the T/FAC arm, the positive predictive value (PPV) of the genomic predictor was 38% (95%CI:21–56%), the negative predictive value (NPV) 88% (CI:77–95%) and the AUC 0.711. In the FAC arm, the PPV was 9% (CI:1–29%) and the AUC 0.584. This suggests that the genomic predictor may have regimen-specificity. Its performance was similar to a clinical variable-based predictor nomogram.ConclusionsGene expression profiling for prospective response prediction was feasible in this international trial. The 30-gene predictor can identify patients with greater than average sensitivity to T/FAC chemotherapy. However, it captured molecular equivalents of clinical phenotype. Next generation predictive markers will need to be developed separately for different molecular subsets of breast cancers

Proliferation and estrogen signaling can distinguish patients at risk for early versus late relapse among estrogen receptor positive breast cancers

Introduction: We examined if a combination of proliferation markers and estrogen receptor (ER) activity could predict early versus late relapses in ER-positive breast cancer and inform the choice and length of adjuvant endocrine therapy. Methods: Baseline affymetrix gene-expression profiles from ER-positive patients who received no systemic therapy (n = 559), adjuvant tamoxifen for 5 years (cohort-1: n = 683, cohort-2: n = 282) and from 58 patients treated with neoadjuvant letrozole for 3 months (gene-expression available at baseline, 14 and 90 days) were analyzed. A proliferation score based on the expression of mitotic kinases (MKS) and an ER-related score (ERS) adopted from Oncotype DX® were calculated. The same analysis was performed using the Genomic Grade Index as proliferation marker and the luminal gene score from the PAM50 classifier as measure of estrogen-related genes. Median values were used to define low and high marker groups and four combinations were created. Relapses were grouped into time cohorts of 0-2.5, 0-5, 5-10 years. Results: In the overall 10 years period, the proportional hazards assumption was violated for several biomarker groups indicating time-dependent effects. In tamoxifen-treated patients Low-MKS/Low-ERS cancers had continuously increasing risk of relapse that was higher after 5 years than Low-MKS/High-ERS cancers [0 to 10 year, HR 3.36; p = 0.013]. High-MKS/High-ERS cancers had low risk of early relapse [0-2.5 years HR 0.13; p = 0.0006], but high risk of late relapse which was higher than in the High-MKS/Low-ERS group [after 5 years HR 3.86; p = 0.007]. The High-MKS/Low-ERS subset had most of the early relapses [0 to 2.5 years, HR 6.53; p < 0.0001] especially in node negative tumors and showed minimal response to neoadjuvant letrozole. These findings were qualitatively confirmed in a smaller independent cohort of tamoxifen-treated patients. Using different biomarkers provided similar results. Conclusions: Early relapses are highest in highly proliferative/low-ERS cancers, in particular in node negative tumors. Relapses occurring after 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen are highest among the highly-proliferative/high-ERS tumors although their risk of recurrence is modest in the first 5 years on tamoxifen. These tumors could be the best candidates for extended endocrine therapy