Do Money Or Oil And Crop Productivity Shocks Lead To Inflation: The Case Of Pakistan

The worst economic outcomes have been argued as a result of the mismanagement in money supply especially in 1929’s Great Depression, 1970’s Stagflation and 2008’s Economic depression in the global economy. However, economic recessions tend to appear after oil price phenomenon. In particular, the global inflationary pressures of 2008 became severe with the spikes up in oil prices as well as crop productivity shocks in the world economy including Pakistan. The object of the present paper is to discuss inflation in the framework of Monetary and external Oil Price Shocks, Crop Productivity Propositions, Inflation Inertia, and real GDP growth. The empirical studies broadly uphold the monetary explanation of inflation in the Pakistan’s economy. This paper offers the policy implication that the combination of monetary as well as productivity management is required to arrest inflationary pressures in the economy. In addition, we find the comprehensive evidence that food inflation is also a monetary phenomenon in the Pakistan’s economy. On the other hand, the continuous persistence in inflation inertia does not hold as a result of the absence of autocorrelation in money supply in AR (2) or higher process in the data. Oil prices in terms of domestic currency highlight the fact that the transmission channel of world shocks via exchange rate fluctuations leaves significant impacts upon domestic inflation in the economy.Money; Inflation; Oil; Productivity

Efficiency Wage Hypothesis—The Case of Pakistan

The object of this paper is to present an exposition of Efficiency Wage theory, and to test its basic assertions in the context of Pakistan. The Great Depression of 1929 showed that labour disequilibrium persists for long periods of time. One of the causes of this was rigidity of nominal wages, which was assumed without explanation by Keynes in his General Theory. Stagflation in the 1970s led to re-examination of Keynesian theories and a search for a satisfactory theoretical explanation of wage rigidity. Efficiency Wage theories provide an explanation by suggesting that worker productivity increases with wage. This means that firms may not have incentive to cut wages even when they are above equilibrium. Substantial empirical evidence for efficiency wages has been found in the context of advanced economies, but there is very little literature for developingcountries. Saygili (1998) has given evidence for efficiency wages in the Turkish economy. Nasir (2000) provides empirical evidence for a wage differential between private and public sectors in Pakistan, which conforms to efficiency wage considerations. In this paper, we show that the textile sector in Pakistan appears to offer efficiency wages, while other sectors conform to neoclassical competitive labour market theorie

Keynes is Back: Global Economic Depression Monetary Policy Operations FY-02 & FY-09 Pakistan´s Economic Scenario

The paper presents economic explanation of recessionary shocks and convergence mechanism within the context of Keynesian and Classical Economic Theory. The paper also discusses the global counter-cyclical measures to avert the recent 2008s economic depression which started from US subprime mortgage and spread all over the European and, then Emerging market economies especially through trade channels. In the context of Pakistan’s economy, the major focus of the paper is on the inflationary stance which is not confined to the monetary growth rather it is a related to a number of internal and external factors. The paper while reviewing the monetary policy measures of the State Bank of Pakistan over the period of 2007-08 & 2008-09, emphasizes the fact that monetary policy measures cannot show fruitful results to arrest inflationary pressures without effective management of supply side improvements and strict administrative price controls in the economy. Moreover, inflation up to the single digit cannot be declined through the use of higher discount rate in the presence of higher cost of living, low pass through of decline in international oil prices to end consumers, higher wheat support price, depreciation of rupee against basket of competitors’ currencies in the economy.Monetary Policy Measures

Efficiency Wage Hypothesis—The Case of Pakistan

The goal of this section is to point out the observed difficulties with the classical/neoclassical theory of labour markets. According to classical and neoclassical economics, the labour market is a market like any other market. The equilibrium wage is determined by the intersection of the supply and demand for labour

Keynes is Back: Global Economic Depression Monetary Policy Operations FY-02 & FY-09 Pakistan´s Economic Scenario

The paper presents economic explanation of recessionary shocks and convergence mechanism within the context of Keynesian and Classical Economic Theory. The paper also discusses the global counter-cyclical measures to avert the recent 2008s economic depression which started from US subprime mortgage and spread all over the European and, then Emerging market economies especially through trade channels. In the context of Pakistan’s economy, the major focus of the paper is on the inflationary stance which is not confined to the monetary growth rather it is a related to a number of internal and external factors. The paper while reviewing the monetary policy measures of the State Bank of Pakistan over the period of 2007-08 & 2008-09, emphasizes the fact that monetary policy measures cannot show fruitful results to arrest inflationary pressures without effective management of supply side improvements and strict administrative price controls in the economy. Moreover, inflation up to the single digit cannot be declined through the use of higher discount rate in the presence of higher cost of living, low pass through of decline in international oil prices to end consumers, higher wheat support price, depreciation of rupee against basket of competitors’ currencies in the economy

Inflation dynamics and New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Australia

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is a standard model in the analysis of inflation dynamics. For the Australian economy, this study establishes the empirical evidence that the NKPC can explain the process of inflation dynamics and the price-setting mechanism. The trade shocks, such as the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, play an important role in inflation dynamics

Global Food Crisis & Inflationary Pressures: Short and Medium to Long Term Policy Options

The present paper is an initiative to pin down major factors behind exorbitant inflationary pressures in the global economy. The paper mentions that among other factors productivity shocks, external shocks, inflationary expectations and conversion of food crops into fuel generation are the major drivers of inflation (especially food inflation) in the present inflationary era. An attempt is also made to offer some short and medium to long term policy recommendations in this regard. Especially, the acquisition of internal growth momentum is emphasized to absorb the severity of imported inflation in the global economy as well as in Pakistan’s economic scenario. Last but not the least, the paper highlights that inflationary pressures are more sensitive to the productivity shocks than the impact of monetary policy operations in the short run and therefore, supply side measures along with monetary policy operations are important to control inflationary stance in the emerging economies including Pakistan

Wage Differential in an Islamic Framework

The establishment of an Islamic society can itself remove many social and economic evils. Although differences between the poor and the rich generate a 'balanced economic society', they do not affect the glory of man. The departure of the Islamic economic agents from non-Islamic economic agents is due to the motivation behind economic decisions. The utility function of an Islamic employee consists of Divine will, Master pleasure, Wages and Effort level. The degree of Aman matters in worship and economic decisions and leads to wage differential in the labour market

Do Money Or Oil And Crop Productivity Shocks Lead To Inflation: The Case Of Pakistan

The worst economic outcomes have been argued as a result of the mismanagement in money supply especially in 1929’s Great Depression, 1970’s Stagflation and 2008’s Economic depression in the global economy. However, economic recessions tend to appear after oil price phenomenon. In particular, the global inflationary pressures of 2008 became severe with the spikes up in oil prices as well as crop productivity shocks in the world economy including Pakistan. The object of the present paper is to discuss inflation in the framework of Monetary and external Oil Price Shocks, Crop Productivity Propositions, Inflation Inertia, and real GDP growth. The empirical studies broadly uphold the monetary explanation of inflation in the Pakistan’s economy. This paper offers the policy implication that the combination of monetary as well as productivity management is required to arrest inflationary pressures in the economy. In addition, we find the comprehensive evidence that food inflation is also a monetary phenomenon in the Pakistan’s economy. On the other hand, the continuous persistence in inflation inertia does not hold as a result of the absence of autocorrelation in money supply in AR (2) or higher process in the data. Oil prices in terms of domestic currency highlight the fact that the transmission channel of world shocks via exchange rate fluctuations leaves significant impacts upon domestic inflation in the economy

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached$8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total,$40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this,$13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and$1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4$2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7$1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd