Addressing bias in faculty retention

The field of ecology in the United States is not fully harnessing the diverse perspectives of the American population. Two major limitations to advancing diversity and inclusion include insufficient awareness of biased attitudes and the lack of large-scale faculty engagement in diversity and inclusion programs. Academic institutions must recognize and value individuals that participate in diversity and inclusion programs. Valuing this work will motivate all ecologists to accept the responsibility for these efforts and not simply assume that the few minorities in their field can do this work

Identifying foundation species in North American forests using long‐term data on ant assemblage structure

Foundation species are locally abundant and uniquely control associated biodiversity, whereas dominant species are locally abundant but are thought to be replaceable in ecological systems. It is important to distinguish foundation from dominant species to direct conservation efforts. Long‐term studies that remove abundant species while measuring community dynamics have the potential to (1) aid in the identification of foundation vs. dominant species and, (2) once a foundation species is identified, determine how long its effects persist within a community after its loss. Long‐term data on ant assemblages within two canopy‐manipulation experiments—the Harvard Forest Hemlock Removal Experiment (HF‐HeRE) and the Black Rock Future of Oak Forests Experiment (BRF‐FOFE)—provide insights into how ant assemblages change and reassemble following the loss of Tsuga canadensis or Quercus spp. Previous research documented foundation species effects on ants in the HF‐HeRE for up to four years after T. canadensis loss. Six additional years of data at HF‐HeRE presented for the first time here show that removal of T. canadensis resulted in taxonomic and some measures of functional shifts in ant assemblages that persisted for ten years, further supporting the hypothesis that T. canadensis is a foundation species at Harvard Forest. In contrast, ant assemblages at BRF‐FOFE varied little regardless of whether oaks or other tree species were removed from the canopy, suggesting that Quercusspecies do not act as foundation species at Black Rock Forest. Deer and moose exclosures within each experiment also allowed for comparisons between effects on ants of foundation or dominant tree species relative to effects of large herbivores. At HF‐HeRE, effects of T. canadensis were stronger than effects of large herbivores on taxonomic and functional diversity of ant assemblages. At BRF‐FOFE, in contrast, effects of Quercus species were weaker than effects of large herbivores on ant taxonomic diversity and some measures of ant functional diversity. These findings illustrate the importance of distinguishing between the roles of irreplaceable foundation species and replaceable dominant ones in forested ecosystems along with other drivers of biodiversity (e.g., herbivory)

Projecting Global Mangrove Species and Community Distributions under Climate Change

Given the multitude of ecosystem services provided by mangroves, it is important to understand their potential responses to global climate change. Extensive reviews of the literature and manipulative experiments suggest that mangroves will be impacted by climate change, but few studies have tested these predictions over large scales using statistical models. We provide the first example of applying species and community distribution models (SDMs and CDMs, respectively) to coastal mangroves worldwide. Species distributions were modeled as ensemble forecasts using BIOMOD. Distributions of mangrove communities with high species richness were modeled in three ways: as the sum of the separate SDM outputs, as binary hotspots (with >3 species) using a generalized linear model, and continuously using a general boosted model. Individual SDMs were projected for 12 species with sufficient data and CDMs were projected for 30 species into 2080 using global climate model outputs and a range of sea-level rise projections. Species projected to shift their ranges polewards by at least 2 degrees of latitude consistently experience a decrease in the amount of suitable coastal area available to them. Central America and the Caribbean are forecast to lose more mangrove species than other parts of the world. We found that the extent and grain size, at which continuous CDM outputs are examined, independent of the grain size at which the models operate, can dramatically influence the number of pseudo-absences needed for optimal parameterization. The SDMs and CDMs presented here provide a first approximation of how mangroves will respond to climate change given simple correlative relationships between occurrence records and environmental data. Additional, precise georeferenced data on mangrove localities and concerted efforts to collect data on ecological processes across large-scale climatic gradients will enable future research to improve upon these correlative models.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

Seedling survival responses to conspecific density, soil nutrients, and irradiance vary with age in a tropical forest

Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2-fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued ‘boreal greening’; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change

Seedling survival responses to conspecific density, soil nutrients, and irradiance vary with age in a tropical forest

Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2-fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued ‘boreal greening’; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change

Broadening the ecological mindset

Over the past three decades, the Harvard Forest Summer Research Program in Ecology (HF-SRPE) has been at the forefront of expanding the ecological tent for minoritized or otherwise marginalized students. By broadening the definition of ecology to include fields such as data science, software engineering, and remote sensing, we attract a broader range of students, including those who may not prioritize field experiences or who may feel unsafe working in rural or urban field sites. We also work towards a more resilient society in which minoritized or marginalized students can work safely, in part by building teams of students and mentors. Teams collaborate on projects that require a diversity of approaches and create opportunities for students and mentors alike to support one another and share leadership. Finally, HF-SRPE promotes an expanded view of what it means to become an ecologist. We value and support diverse career paths for ecologists to work in all parts of society, to diversify the face of ecology, and to bring different perspectives together to ensure innovations in environmental problem solving for our planet

Should Species Distribution Models Account for Spatial Autocorrelation? A Test of Model Projections Across Eight Millennia of Climate Change

Aim: The distributions of many organisms are spatially autocorrelated, but it is unclear whether including spatial terms in species distribution models (SDMs) improves projections of species distributions under climate change. We provide one of the first comparative evaluations of the ability of a purely spatial SDM, a purely non-spatial SDM and a SDM that combines spatial and environmental information to project species distributions across eight millennia of climate change. Location: Eastern North America. Methods: To distinguish between the importance of climatic versus spatial explanatory variables we fit three Bayesian SDMs to modern occurrence data for Fagus and Tsuga, two tree genera whose distributions can be reliably inferred from fossil pollen: a spatially varying intercept model, a non-spatial model with climatic variables and a spatially varying intercept plus climate model. Using palaeoclimate data with a high temporal resolution, we hindcasted the SDMs in 1000-year time steps for 8000 years, and compared model projections with palynological data for the same periods. Results: For both genera, spatial SDMs provided better fits to the calibration data, more accurate predictions of a hold-out validation dataset of modern trees and higher variance in current predictions and hindcasted projections than non-spatial SDMs. Performance of non-spatial and spatial SDMs according to the area under the receiver operating curve varied by genus. For both genera, false negative rates between non-spatial and spatial models were similar, but spatial models had lower false positive rates than non-spatial models. Main conclusions: The inclusion of computationally demanding spatial random effects in SDMs may be warranted when ecological or evolutionary processes prevent taxa from shifting their distributions or when the cost of false positives is high.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

Does scale matter? A systematic review of incorporating biological realism when predicting changes in species distributions

Background There is ample evidence that biotic factors, such as biotic interactions and dispersal capacity, can affect species distributions and influence species’ responses to climate change. However, little is known about how these factors affect predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) with respect to spatial grain and extent of the models. Objectives Understanding how spatial scale influences the effects of biological processes in SDMs is important because SDMs are one of the primary tools used by conservation biologists to assess biodiversity impacts of climate change. Data sources and study eligibility criteria We systematically reviewed SDM studies published from 2003–2015 using ISI Web of Science searches to: (1) determine the current state and key knowledge gaps of SDMs that incorporate biotic interactions and dispersal; and (2) understand how choice of spatial scale may alter the influence of biological processes on SDM predictions. Synthesis methods and limitations We used linear mixed effects models to examine how predictions from SDMs changed in response to the effects of spatial scale, dispersal, and biotic interactions. Results There were important biases in studies including an emphasis on terrestrial ecosystems in northern latitudes and little representation of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest that neither spatial extent nor grain influence projected climate-induced changes in species ranges when SDMs include dispersal or biotic interactions. Conclusions We identified several knowledge gaps and suggest that SDM studies forecasting the effects of climate change should: 1) address broader ranges of taxa and locations; and 1) report the grain size, extent, and results with and without biological complexity. The spatial scale of analysis in SDMs did not affect estimates of projected range shifts with dispersal and biotic interactions. However, the lack of reporting on results with and without biological complexity precluded many studies from our analysis