Collected Notes on Aldrich-Mckelevey Scaling

Aldrich-McKelvey scaling is a method for correcting differential item functioning in ordered rating scales of perceived ideological positions in surveys. In this collection of notes, I present four findings. First, I show that similarly to ordinary least squares, Aldrich-McKelvey scaling can be improved with the use of QR decomposition during the estimation stage. While in theory this might improve accuracy, in practice the main advantage is to retain respondents otherwise lost in the estimation stage. Second, I show that this method leads to a proof of an identification constraint of Aldrich-McKelvey scaling: a minimum of three external stimuli. Third, I show that the common motivation for Aldrich-McKelvey scaling that it is robust to heteroskedasticity as compared to taking the means does not hold up. A review of the literature of prediction aggregation shows taking the mean is equally as robust. However, Aldrich-McKelvey scaling remains robust to rationalization bias and is transparent in its assumptions. Finally, I show that the setup of Bayesian Aldrich-McKelvey Scaling and Aldrich-McKelvey scaling differ from each other in their parameterisation. This is not commonly acknowledged in the literature, and new users of these methods should be aware

The political economy of curriculum change in further education : the case of the Business and Technology Education Council

This thesis offers an account of the origins and purposes of business studies courses validated by the Business and Technology Education Council (BTEC) and their relationship to changes in the nature of clerical work. The thesis examines the ways in which BTEC courses may be said to prepare young people for a place in the workforce and the way in which teachers and students in FE colleges interpret and respond to the courses. Part one offers an analysis of political interventions intended to reduce the power of educationalists by increasing the influence of 'market forces' in further education. It is argued that BTEC courses can best be understood as part of a state strategy to facilitate change in the labour market. Evidence relating to the deskilling of clerical work is examined and it is argued that such deskilling gives rise to a demand for transferable clerical 'skills'. Using evidence from archive material, it is argued that the underlying purpose of BTEC business studies courses is the creation of a clerical labour market where such 'skills' can be traded. The second part of the thesis, based on fieldwork undertaken in two colleges, analyses the impact of BTEC courses within FE and assesses the degree of central control over the practice of teachers. The nature of the practice which BTEC sought to encourage and the mechanisms through which change was to be achieved are examined and related to the analysis in part one of the thesis. The response of students to the demands of the courses within one college is analysed and evidence offered which suggests that many characterisations of the role of FE in preparing young people for a place in the labour force understate the role of young people as active participants in this process

Social democratic party positions on the EU: The case of Brexit

In recent years, social democratic parties have been confronted with the rise of second dimension issues. These issues often see social democratic parties facing a choice between competing portions of their own electorate. A particularly prominent second dimension issue is that of the EU: should social democratic parties take pro or anti-EU positions? I look at the case of the UK as an instructive example of this debate. I estimate a narrow counterfactual, simulating how the Labour Party’s vote share and seat count would have changed as its position on Brexit changes. I call this counterfactual narrow because I only consider the effect of these position changes on vote choice and turnout; and not any broader consequences. I run two simulations to compare the implications of pure proximity and proximity-categorisation models of vote choice. I generate seat predictions from the simulation results by using Uniform National Swing and Uniform Regional Swing. Broadly, I find that being pro-Remain clearly benefited the party in terms of votes, but that results are more mixed in terms of seats. </jats:p

Three Essays on the Measurement of Political Ideology

In this thesis, I present three essays on the problem of measuring political ideology. Having initially set out to understand how globalisation, demographic changes, and new ideological divides contributed to the ongoing political era we find ourselves in, I quickly encountered measurement problems which could not be avoided. I therefore address various measurement issues, with a particular emphasis on survey measurement, while attempting to address this wider backdrop. I begin first by broadly defining ideology, discussing measurement theory, then discussing how this theory applies to ideology. I outline past approaches, then summarise the three essays that make up this thesis. In the first essay, I directly address the problem of measuring the ideology of voters through survey research. This task can be difficult, and researchers often rely on ‘off the shelf’ datasets. Many of these datasets contain unbalanced Likert scales, which risk acquiescence bias. This paper proposes a strategy for dealing with this issue. I first demonstrate using two comparable datasets from the UK how unbalanced scales produce distorted distributions and can affect regression results. Then, building on past research that utilises factor analysis to eliminate the influence of acquiescence bias, I demonstrate how researchers can utilise a person intercept confirmatory factor analysis model to obtain factor scores corrected for acquiescence in the case of fully unbalanced scales. I conclude with practical recommendations for researchers and survey designers moving forward. In the second essay, I address age, period, and cohort effects as possible long-term drivers of both change and stability in political ideology in the electorate. However, the question as to the extent that the explanations these effects offer is consistent across countries has not been addressed. I therefore perform a comparative APC analysis of left-right political ideology. I run two side-by-side APC analyses of left-right positions, constraining effects to be common across countries in one and nesting them within country in the other. I pay special attention to the issue of how measures of ideology can be meaningfully compared, and develop a measure of relative ideology. I find evidence for ageing effects and life-cycle effects. Moreover, I find that while the constraint of common cohort effects is not a strong one, the constrain of common period effects is over-strong. Future research should focus first on better understanding this contrasting result, and second on developing absolute measures to better understand patterns of change and continuity in left-right ideological positions in the public. In the final essay, I address the problem that social democratic parties have been confronted with vis a vis the rise of second dimension issues. These issues often see social democratic parties facing a choice between competing portions of their own electorate. A particularly prominent second dimension issue is that of the EU: should social democratic parties take pro or anti-EU positions? I look at the case of the UK as an instructive example of this debate. In the build-up and aftermath of the 2019 UK General Election, a debate emerged regarding the optimal Brexit position for the Labour Party. This debate was ultimately without satisfactory conclusion as we do not observe counterfactual versions of reality - we witness only one version of events. I therefore estimate a narrow counterfactual, simulating how the Labour Party's vote share and seat count would have changed as its position on Brexit changes. I call this counterfactual narrow because I only consider the effect of these position changes on vote choice and turnout; and not any broader consequences. I run two simulations to compare the implications of pure proximity and proximity-categorisation models of vote choice. I generate seat predictions from the simulation results by using Uniform National Swing and Uniform Regional Swing. This allows me to assess the specific distributional claims made by those advocating for a more pro-Leave position for the Labour Party. I conclude this thesis by highlighting the contributions of these three essays not only as standalone papers, but as a cohesive whole. I take a recent example of research in the Financial Times (FT) that attempts the kind of measurement I perform across the three papers, but which falls short in terms of measurement inference. I show how each paper speaks to a different aspect of the FT article, and could have influenced it in a better direction. I conclude by arguing that measurement inference is ultimately a good thing for political science, as it will lead to more secure results and richer substantive interpretation

Shell Crossing Singularities in Quasi-Spherical Szekeres Models

We investigate the occurrence of shell crossing singularities in quasi-spherical Szekeres dust models with or without a cosmological constant. We study the conditions for shell crossing singularity both from physical and geometrical point of view and they are in agreement.Comment: 10 latex pages, RevTex style, no figure

Emergency management response to landslide dams following the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Masters in Emergency Management at Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand

Figures 1.2-1.5, 1.7, 1.10, 1.11, 3.1-3.4, 4.1, 4.4, 4.5 & 5.1 removed for copyright reasons. GeoNet images (including Figure 1.1) are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand License, and may be copied and redistributed in any medium or format.This research examines the response and emergency management of the Kaikoura earthquake landslide dams formed on the 14th November 2016 by a M 7.8 earthquake which caused extensive damage across Hurunui, Kaikoura and Marlborough. The Kaikoura earthquake caused tens of thousands of landslides and over 200 of those generated dams that blocked rivers. The widespread damage and number of landslide dams was unusual and required a significant response. This involved many agencies and organisations undertaking different aspects of the response. Following the Kaikoura event, the scientific community responded, identifying the dams before carrying out risk assessments of those dams posing a threat to people and infrastructure. As the scale of the event was discovered the response involved other agencies such as district and regional councils, transport agencies, Civil Defence and Emergency Management and geotechnical consultants. To evaluate the emergency response and management of the dams, semi structured interviews were carried out with 18 personnel from ten different agencies and organisations involved in the response. The interviews covered seven topic areas which were developed through the literature and news article review. Analysis of the interview data using content analysis involved transcribing each interview before sorting and coding the transcripts. The analysis highlighted nine main themes. These are: roles and responsibilities; communication; co-ordination; resources; previous experience; community involvement; information and data; relationships; and long-term management. A review and discussion of those themes emphasised the need for improvements in preparedness for future events. The recommendations developed from the analysis are: clarification of responsibilities; planning of response procedures; hazard modelling; creation of a panel agreement for work-sharing; development of geographic sectors; workshops; training; public communication; resources; development of a database; and information sharing. The learnings from Kaikoura can be used to improve future responses for both landslide dams and multi-hazard events across large geographical areas. It is predicted that an earthquake generated by the Alpine Fault could cause severe land damage across a vast geographical area. The Kaikoura earthquake has highlighted the need to focus on landslide dams as a significant hazard to communities, infrastructure and transport links

Minimising post-operative risk using a Post-Anaesthetic Care Tool (PACT): protocol for a prospective observational study and cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: While the risk of adverse events following surgery has been identified, the impact of nursing care on early detection of these events is not well established. A systematic review of the evidence and an expert consensus study in post-anaesthetic care identified essential criteria for nursing assessment of patient readiness for discharge from the post-anaesthetic care unit (PACU). These criteria were included in a new nursing assessment tool, the Post-Anaesthetic Care Tool (PACT), and incorporated into the post-anaesthetic documentation at a large health service. The aim of this study is to test the clinical reliability of the PACT and evaluate whether the use of PACT will (1) enhance the recognition and response to patients at risk of deterioration in PACU; (2) improve documentation for handover from PACU nurse to ward nurse; (3) result in improved patient outcomes and (4) reduce healthcare costs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A prospective, non-randomised, pre-implementation and post-implementation design comparing: (1) patients (n=750) who have surgery prior to the implementation of the PACT and (2) patients (n=750) who have surgery after PACT. The study will examine the use of the tool through the observation of patient care and nursing handover. Patient outcomes and cost-effectiveness will be determined from health service data and medical record audit. Descriptive statistics will be used to describe the sample and compare the two patient groups (pre-intervention and post-intervention). Differences in patient outcomes between the two groups will be compared using the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test and regression analyses and reported as ORs with the corresponding 95% CIs. CONCLUSIONS: This study will test the clinical reliability and cost-effectiveness of the PACT. It is hypothesised that the PACT will enable nurses to recognise and respond to patients at risk of deterioration, improve handover to ward nurses, improve patient outcomes, and reduce healthcare costs

Dynamical extensions for shell-crossing singularities

We derive global weak solutions of Einstein's equations for spherically symmetric dust-filled space-times which admit shell-crossing singularities. In the marginally bound case, the solutions are weak solutions of a conservation law. In the non-marginally bound case, the equations are solved in a generalized sense involving metric functions of bounded variation. The solutions are not unique to the future of the shell-crossing singularity, which is replaced by a shock wave in the present treatment; the metric is bounded but not continuous.Comment: 14 pages, 1 figur

More than sense of place? Exploring the emotional dimension of rural tourism experiences

It is widely suggested that participation in rural tourism is underpinned by a sense of rural place or “rurality”. However, although nature and the countryside have long been recognised as a source of spiritual or emotional fulfilment, few have explored the extent to which tourism, itself often claimed to be a sacred experience, offers an emotional/spiritual dimension in the rural context. This paper addresses that literature gap. Using in-depth interviews with rural tourists in the English Lake District, it explores the extent to which, within respondents’ individual understanding of spirituality, a relationship exists between sense of place and deeper, emotional experiences and, especially, whether participation in rural tourism may induce spiritual or emotional responses. The research revealed that all respondents felt a strong attachment to the Lake District; similarly, and irrespective of their openness to spirituality, engaging in rural tourism activities resulted in highly emotive experiences for all respondents, the description/interpretation of such experiences being determined by individual “beliefs”. However, sense of place was not a prerequisite to emotional or spiritual experiences. Being in and engaging with the landscape � effectively becoming part of it � especially through physical activity is fundamental to emotional responses

Radiation burnthrough measurements to infer opacity at conditions close to the solar radiative zone–convective zone boundary

Recent measurements at the Sandia National Laboratory of the x-ray transmission of iron plasma have inferred opacities much higher than predicted by theory, which casts doubt on modeling of iron x-ray radiative opacity at conditions close to the solar convective zone-radiative zone boundary. An increased radiative opacity of the solar mixture, in particular iron, is a possible explanation for the disagreement in the position of the solar convection zone-radiative zone boundary as measured by helioseismology and predicted by modeling using the most recent photosphere analysis of the elemental composition. Here, we present data from radiation burnthrough experiments, which do not support a large increase in the opacity of iron at conditions close to the base of the solar convection zone and provide a constraint on the possible values of both the mean opacity and the opacity in the x-ray range of the Sandia experiments. The data agree with opacity values from current state-of-the-art opacity modeling using the CASSANDRA opacity code