Modeling aspects of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of the endangered Houston toad

The goal of my dissertation was to describe the dynamics of a group of Houston toads located at the Griffith League Ranch (GLR), Bastrop County, Texas. My research included using statistical modeling to predict activity and abundance, mark-recapture techniques to estimate survivorship, and simulation modeling to explore the impacts of the difference in age at first reproduction and to project the future dynamics of the population at the GLR. From 2001 – 2005, 225 individual Houston toads (199 M : 26 F) were captured using two methods: breeding pond surveys and drift fences. Houston toads were neither caught equally among capture methods, nor across years. Toad activity was mostly confined within their breeding season, and activity was not continuous. A logistic regression indicated activity depended on time of year, mean precipitation, mean minimum daily temperature, and mean percent lunation as well as two-way interactions with moon-phase and other variables. Abundance depended on time of year, current precipitation, minimum temperature, and two-way interactions between time of year and the other two variables. Twenty-one of the 199 males (10.5%) and no females were recaptured among years. The probability of male survival was estimated using program MARK. Eight of 16 candidate models were supported and all but one contained precipitation as a covariate, indicating precipitation is important for Houston toad survival. Survivorship estimates varied from 0.1 to 0.41. The sex ratio was significantly male-biased. The odds of catching females in traps were 3.5 greater than capturing females in a pond, while the odds of capturing males in a trap were 0.28 compared to ponds. Results from a simulation model indicated the sex ratio is biased because of the difference in maturation times between males and females, coupled with high juvenile mortality. Results from an individual-based, spatially-explicit, stochastic simulation model, indicated a relatively low probability (~ 0.013) of B. houstonensis going extinct at the GLR within the next 10 years. Emergent properties of the model were similar to results observed in the field or reported in the literature. The model also identified that dispersal of Houston toads should be a future research priority

USING CALLING ACTIVITY TO PREDICT CALLING ACTIVITY: A CASE STUDY WITH THE ENDANGERED HOUSTON TOAD (BUFO [ANAXYRUS] HOUSTONENSIS)

Understanding anuran calling activity patterns is important for maximizing efficiency and value of call survey data collection and analyses. Previous studies have primarily focused on identifying and quantifying abiotic variables that influence anuran calling activity, and investigating relationships between calling activity and population estimates. In this study we investigated the use of a predictor pond approach to guide call survey effort. In this approach, calling activity at a subset of breeding sites (e.g., ponds) is used as a predictor of calling activity at additional breeding sites, with the goal being to minimize sampling effort while simultaneously maximizing sampling efficiency. We explored the efficiency of this approach using call survey data collected on the endangered Houston Toad (Bufo [Anaxyrus] houstonensis) at 15 known breeding ponds over 9 survey years. We found that if calling activity at 3 predictor ponds was used to decide if additional call surveys would occur at the remaining 12 ponds, we would have hypothetically correctly assumed calling activity was not occurring at non-predictor ponds on 92.1% of survey nights, and we would have hypothetically detected 93.9% of the total number of detected individuals over the 9 survey years. We found the predictor pond approach performed well in our case study, and believe it could be a valuable tool for many anuran monitoring programs

Modeling aspects of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of the endangered Houston toad

The goal of my dissertation was to describe the dynamics of a group of Houston toads located at the Griffith League Ranch (GLR), Bastrop County, Texas. My research included using statistical modeling to predict activity and abundance, mark-recapture techniques to estimate survivorship, and simulation modeling to explore the impacts of the difference in age at first reproduction and to project the future dynamics of the population at the GLR. From 2001 – 2005, 225 individual Houston toads (199 M : 26 F) were captured using two methods: breeding pond surveys and drift fences. Houston toads were neither caught equally among capture methods, nor across years. Toad activity was mostly confined within their breeding season, and activity was not continuous. A logistic regression indicated activity depended on time of year, mean precipitation, mean minimum daily temperature, and mean percent lunation as well as two-way interactions with moon-phase and other variables. Abundance depended on time of year, current precipitation, minimum temperature, and two-way interactions between time of year and the other two variables. Twenty-one of the 199 males (10.5%) and no females were recaptured among years. The probability of male survival was estimated using program MARK. Eight of 16 candidate models were supported and all but one contained precipitation as a covariate, indicating precipitation is important for Houston toad survival. Survivorship estimates varied from 0.1 to 0.41. The sex ratio was significantly male-biased. The odds of catching females in traps were 3.5 greater than capturing females in a pond, while the odds of capturing males in a trap were 0.28 compared to ponds. Results from a simulation model indicated the sex ratio is biased because of the difference in maturation times between males and females, coupled with high juvenile mortality. Results from an individual-based, spatially-explicit, stochastic simulation model, indicated a relatively low probability (~ 0.013) of B. houstonensis going extinct at the GLR within the next 10 years. Emergent properties of the model were similar to results observed in the field or reported in the literature. The model also identified that dispersal of Houston toads should be a future research priority

A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Future Climate Scenarios: Quantifying and Projecting Patterns of Evapotranspiration and Precipitation in the Salton Sea Watershed

The need for improved quantitative precipitation forecasts and realistic assessments of the regional impacts of natural climate variability and climate change has generated increased interest in regional (i.e., systems-scale) climate simulation. The Salton Sea Stochastic Simulation Model (S4M) was developed to assist planners and residents of the Salton Sea (SS) transboundary watershed (USA and Mexico) in making sound policy decisions regarding complex water-related issues. In order to develop the S4M with a higher degree of climate forecasting resolution, an in-depth analysis was conducted regarding precipitation and evapotranspiration for the semiarid region of the watershed. Weather station data were compiled for both precipitation and evapotranspiration from 1980 to 2004. Several logistic regression models were developed for determining the relationships among precipitation events, that is, duration and volume, and evapotranspiration levels. These data were then used to develop a stochastic weather generator for S4M. Analyses revealed that the cumulative effects and changes of ±10 percent in SS inflows can have significant effects on sea elevation and salinity. The aforementioned technique maintains the relationships between the historic frequency distributions of both precipitation and evapotranspiration, and not as separate unconnected and constrained variables

Integrating social power and political influence into models of social–ecological systems

Shaping policy for environmental sustainability depends upon decision-makers conceptualizing problems in ways that are either shared or similar enough to communicate about, diagnose, and act. The quality of this shared mental model of a social–ecological system (SES) is paramount to its effectiveness. Fundamentally, the mental model must integrate multiple kinds of knowledge about the system. If the decision-making body's assumptions about, description of, and solution for a problem do not to reflect the many ways stakeholders know a system, then the products of that decision-making process are viewed as illegitimate. Sustainability policy must fit the often subtle social order of the communities expected to implement it. In this essay, we discuss how a systems-based perspective can be a versatile tool for tackling these challenges of knowledge integration and decision-making in the context of a complex SES. Using social theory of Pierre Bourdieu, we construct a conceptual model that illustrates a route for integrating locally known social complexities (power, influence) gleaned from stakeholder interviews (N = 57). Stakeholders and end-user groups may dismiss any model that they perceive fails to satisfactorily account for specific, locally salient social nuances. Our approach leverages the overlapping notion of “capital” in social and ecological theory to demonstrate how reciprocal interactions between human and ecological systems can be adopted into tools for reaching viable solutions to SES problem

Simulating range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler in the face of uncertainty

Population viability analyses provide a quantitative approach that seeks to predict the possible future status of a species of interest under different scenarios and, therefore, can be important components of large-scale species’ conservation programs. We created a model and simulated range-wide population and breeding habitat dynamics for an endangered woodland warbler, the golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia). Habitat-transition probabilities were estimated across the warbler's breeding range by combining National Land Cover Database imagery with multistate modeling. Using these estimates, along with recently published demographic estimates, we examined if the species can remain viable into the future given the current conditions. Lastly, we evaluated if protecting a greater amount of habitat would increase the number of warblers that can be supported in the future by systematically increasing the amount of protected habitat and comparing the estimated terminal carrying capacity at the end of 50 years of simulated habitat change. The estimated habitat-transition probabilities supported the hypothesis that habitat transitions are unidirectional, whereby habitat is more likely to diminish than regenerate. The model results indicated population viability could be achieved under current conditions, depending on dispersal. However, there is considerable uncertainty associated with the population projections due to parametric uncertainty. Model results suggested that increasing the amount of protected lands would have a substantial impact on terminal carrying capacities at the end of a 50-year simulation. Notably, this study identifies the need for collecting the data required to estimate demographic parameters in relation to changes in habitat metrics and population density in multiple regions, and highlights the importance of establishing a common definition of what constitutes protected habitat, what management goals are suitable within those protected areas, and a standard operating procedure to identify areas of priority for habitat conservation efforts. Therefore, we suggest future efforts focus on these aspects of golden-cheeked warbler conservation and ecology.Keywords: Setophaga chrysoparia, Habitat conservation, Habitat dynamics, Extinction risk, Population dynamics, Multistate mode

Coastal natural and nature-based features: international guidelines for flood risk management

Natural and nature-based features (NNBF) have been used for more than 100 years as coastal protection infrastructure (e.g., beach nourishment projects). The application of NNBF has grown steadily in recent years with the goal of realizing both coastal engineering and environment and social co-benefits through projects that have the potential to adapt to the changing climate. Technical advancements in support of NNBF are increasingly the subject of peer-reviewed literature, and guidance has been published by numerous organizations to inform technical practice for specific types of nature-based solutions. The International Guidelines on Natural and Nature-Based Features for Flood Risk Management was recently published to provide a comprehensive guide that draws directly on the growing body of knowledge and practitioner experience from around the world to inform the process of conceptualizing, planning, designing, engineering, and operating NNBF. These Guidelines focus on the role of nature-based solutions and natural infrastructure (beaches, dunes, wetlands and plant systems, islands, reefs) as a part of coastal and riverine flood risk management. In addition to describing each of the NNBF types, their use, design, implementation, and maintenance, the guidelines describe general principles for employing NNBF, stakeholder engagement, monitoring, costs and benefits, and adaptive management. An overall systems approach is taken to planning and implementation of NNBF. The guidelines were developed to support decision-makers, project managers, and practitioners in conceptualizing, planning, designing, engineering, implementing, and maintaining sustainable systems for nature-based flood risk management. This paper summarizes key concepts and highlights challenges and areas of future research

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A Spatially Explicit, Multi-Criteria Decision Support Model for Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting Habitat Suitability: A Remote Sensing-Based Approach

Nesting habitat for the federally endangered loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) were designated as critical in 2014 for beaches along the Atlantic Coast and Gulf of Mexico. Nesting suitability is routinely determined based on site specific information. Given the expansive geographic location of the designated critical C. caretta nesting habitat and the highly dynamic coastal environment, understanding nesting suitability on a regional scale is essential for monitoring the changing status of the coast as a result of hydrodynamic forces and maintenance efforts. The increasing spatial resolution and temporal frequency of remote sensing data offers the opportunity to study this dynamic environment on a regional scale. Remote sensing data were used as input into the spatially-explicit, multi-criteria decision support model to determine nesting habitat suitability. Results from the study indicate that the morphological parameters used as input into the model are well suited to provide a regional level approach with the results from the optimized model having sensitivity and detection prevalence values greater than 80% and the detection rate being greater than 70%. The approach can be implemented in various geographic locations to better communicate priorities and evaluate management strategies as a result of changes to the dynamic coastal environment

Strategies for communicating systems models

Sustainable environmental policies are rooted in knowledge and assumptions that decision-making authorities hold regarding specific social–ecological settings. These decision makers are increasingly informed by systems models. Diverse audiences for environmental science and sustainability policies magnify the importance of clear model communication. This essay offers a summary of best communication practices for situations in which bridging modelers' and non-modelers' conceptions of a given system—their respective mental models—is a principal challenge. Synthesizing social research from technical communication, educational psychology, and science communication disciplines, we discuss common areas of confusion in comprehending and explaining complex information, and present strategies model developers can use to ensure their model presentations are understandable and meaningful to audiences. We argue that accessible and socially adoptable explanations benefit from modelers listening to target audiences and anticipating how and why audiences may fail to understand aspects of a model