A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies

After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,†published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010. The present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux.Iran, Elections, Presidential Election, Opinion Polls, Political Crisis

Preliminary discussions on the urbanization of rural areas in modern Iran

In this translation draft of the first part of the author's recently-published book in Japanese, entitled as "Rural-cities in Contemporary Iran: Revolution, War and the Structural Changes in the Rural Society," we are presenting the preliminary discussions on Iranian middle-sized cities and towns which emerged in these 30 years or so. We start from the explanations of the contents of the above-mentioned book and do the reviewing of the preceding studies, followed by the critical review of the studies on the Iranian revolution in 1979, and the studies on Iran's recent political trends and the tendencies towards the local governance, which was tempered and collapsed with the appearance of President AhmadÄ«nejÄd. This consists of the Introduction and the first parts of Chapter 1 of our book, and we are expecting to finish translating the whole contents and to publish it in the near future. We apologize for the shortcomings of this paper, for example some partial lack of correspondence of its bibliography with the main contents, mainly because of the technical reasons.Iran, Rural societies, Urbanization, Social change, Social structure

From Backdoor-Opening To Concluding “Real” Free Trade Agreements? : Japan’s Free Trade Policy Towards The US, The EU And Latin American Countries

The first country Japan signed an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) was Singapore in January 2002. Since then, Japan has agreed upon EPAs with most of the Asian-Pacific countries, including Australia (July 2014), but without Korea and China. This could be described as the first stage of Japan’s FTA/EPA negotiations, set upon a strategy to conclude with countries “as many as possible” and “in the order of conclude-able.” Japan’s EPAs with Mexico (May 2005), Chile (September 2007), and Peru (March 2012) aimed to catch up with the US and the European Union’s (EU) free trade policy with Latin American countries, so that Japanese multi-nationals would not reduce market access. Japan’s strategy in this stage had been passive. In the current second stage, which the country has gradually entered into after the global financial crisis, Japan pursues active roles and negotiates with “bigger” partners such as the US (in the TPP, Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement, or Trans-Pacific Partnership), Canada, the EU, Korea and China. Japan’s EPAs with Mexico, Chile and Peru played the role of opening a backdoor to Japan’s highly protected agriculture market, therefore urging a new dimension to the country’s foreign trade policy. While allowing Japanese farmers to export to Latin America, Japan in turn opened its domestic market of wine, beef, chicken, pork and others, which was a compromise the country had rarely made with the US and the EC (European Community)/EU during the history of trade conflicts since the 1970s. Besides agriculture, Japan is further required to abandon non-tariff barriers and to open public procurement. Whether Japan could take a leap from its familiar and “comfortable” regulated free trade policy into “real” free trade and therefore play a role in setting rules and accelerating global free trade is seriously put into question

A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies

After the 10th Iranian Presidential election on June 12, 2009, several public opinion polls taken in Iran attracted the attention of policy-makers and journalists around the world because of the political crisis that followed. In this paper I first review critically the polls conducted by the WPO (WorldPublicOpinion.org), PIPA (Program on International Policy Attitudes) at the University of Maryland. I also review an essay by Steven Kull, which is based on the aforementioned poll results and which in my opinion leads to false conclusions concerning Iran’s political prospects. I also discuss “An Analysis of Multiple Polls of the Iranian Public,” published by WPO-PIPA on February 3 2010.\nThe present paper arrives at the overall conclusion that it is impossible to obtain an accurate image of political opinions in societies as complicated as that of Iran by concentrating on only one technique of research and analysis, especially when the political and social situation in the society concerned is in a state of constant flux

The Nature of the State in Afghanistan and Its Relations with Neighboring Countries

Since the formation of Afghanistan, its nature as a Pashtun state has affected all its international relations. On the other hand, the fact that it was originally established as a buffer state between Britain and Russia still governs its national integration. In this article I examine Afghanistan\u27s relations with its neighbors through an investigation of its history and the present conditions of its borders with its southern, western and northern neighbors. My aim is to obtain an overall perspective of Afghanistan\u27s relations with its neighbors, historically decisive elements, and the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks

Preliminary discussions on the urbanization of rural areas in modern Iran

In this translation draft of the first part of the author\u27s recently-published book in Japanese, entitled as "Rural-cities in Contemporary Iran: Revolution, War and the Structural Changes in the Rural Society," we are presenting the preliminary discussions on Iranian middle-sized cities and towns which emerged in these 30 years or so. We start from the explanations of the contents of the above-mentioned book and do the reviewing of the preceding studies, followed by the critical review of the studies on the Iranian revolution in 1979, and the studies on Iran\u27s recent political trends and the tendencies towards the local governance, which was tempered and collapsed with the appearance of President Ahmadīnejād.\nThis consists of the Introduction and the first parts of Chapter 1 of our book, and we are expecting to finish translating the whole contents and to publish it in the near future. We apologize for the shortcomings of this paper, for example some partial lack of correspondence of its bibliography with the main contents, mainly because of the technical reasons