20 research outputs found

    Bayesian spatial analysis of cholangiocarcinoma in Northeast Thailand

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    Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a malignant neoplasm of the biliary tract. Thailand reports the highest incidence of CCA in the world. The aim of this study was to map the distribution of CCA and identify spatial disease clusters in Northeast Thailand. Individual-level data of patients with histopathologically confirmed CCA, aggregated at the sub-district level, were obtained from the Cholangiocarcinoma Screening and Care Program (CASCAP) between February 2013 and December 2017. For analysis a multivariate Zero-inflated, Poisson (ZIP) regression model was developed. This model incorporated a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure, with posterior parameters estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation with Gibbs sampling. Covariates included in the models were age, sex, normalized vegetation index (NDVI), and distance to water body. There was a total of 1,299 cases out of 358,981 participants. CCA incidence increased 2.94 fold (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.62-3.31) in patients &gt;60 years as compared to ≤60 years. Males were 2.53 fold (95% CrI: 2.24-2.85) more likely to have CCA when compared to females. CCA decreased with a 1 unit increase of NDVI (Relative Risk =0.06; 95% CrI: 0.01-0.63). When posterior means were mapped spatial clustering was evident after accounting for the model covariates. Age, sex and environmental variables were associated with an increase in the incidence of CCA. When these covariates were included in models the maps of the posterior means of the spatially structured random effects demonstrated evidence of spatial clustering.</p

    Opisthorchis viverrini and Strongyloides stercoralis mono- and co-infections:Bayesian geostatistical analysis in an endemic area, Thailand

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    Parasitic infections caused by Opisthorchis viverrini and Strongyloides stercoralis remain a major public health threat in the Greater Mekong Sub-region. An understanding of climate and other environmental influences on the geographical distribution and emergence of parasitic diseases is a crucial step to guide targeted control and prevention programs. A parasitological survey was conducted from 2008 to 2013 and included 12,554 individuals (age between 20 and 60 years) from 142 villages in five districts in Khon Kaen Province, Thailand. Geographical information systems, remote sensing technologies and a Bayesian geostatistical framework were used to develop models for O. viverrini and S. stercoralis mono- and co-infections in areas where both parasites are known to co-occur. The results indicate that male sex, increased age, altitude, precipitation, and land surface temperature have influenced the infection rate and geographical distribution of mono- and co-infections of O. viverrini and S. stercoralis in this area. Males were 6.69 times (95% CrI: 5.26-8.58) more likely to have O. viverrini - S. stercoralis co-infection. We observed that O. viverrini and S. stercoralis mono-infections display distinct spatial pattern, while co-infection is predicted in the center and southeast of the study area. The observed spatial clustering of O. viverrini and S. stercoralis provides valuable information for the spatial targeting of prevention interventions in this area.</p

    Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling of environmental, climatic, and socio-economic influences on malaria in Central Vietnam

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    BackgroundDespite the successful efforts in controlling malaria in Vietnam, the disease remains a significant health concern, particularly in Central Vietnam. This study aimed to assess correlations between environmental, climatic, and socio-economic factors in the district with malaria cases.MethodsThe study was conducted in 15 provinces in Central Vietnam from January 2018 to December 2022. Monthly malaria cases were obtained from the Institute of Malariology, Parasitology, and Entomology Quy Nhon, Vietnam. Environmental, climatic, and socio-economic data were retrieved using a Google Earth Engine script. A multivariable Zero-inflated Poisson regression was undertaken using a Bayesian framework with spatial and spatiotemporal random effects with a conditional autoregressive prior structure. The posterior random effects were estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with Gibbs sampling.ResultsThere was a total of 5,985 Plasmodium falciparum and 2,623 Plasmodium vivax cases during the study period. Plasmodium falciparum risk increased by five times (95% credible interval [CrI] 4.37, 6.74) for each 1-unit increase of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) without lag and by 8% (95% CrI 7%, 9%) for every 1ºC increase in maximum temperature (TMAX) at a 6-month lag. While a decrease in risk of 1% (95% CrI 0%, 1%) for a 1 mm increase in precipitation with a 6-month lag was observed. A 1-unit increase in NDVI at a 1-month lag was associated with a four-fold increase (95% CrI 2.95, 4.90) in risk of P. vivax. In addition, the risk increased by 6% (95% CrI 5%, 7%) and 3% (95% CrI 1%, 5%) for each 1ºC increase in land surface temperature during daytime with a 6-month lag and TMAX at a 4-month lag, respectively. Spatial analysis showed a higher mean malaria risk of both species in the Central Highlands and southeast parts of Central Vietnam and a lower risk in the northern and north-western areas.ConclusionIdentification of environmental, climatic, and socio-economic risk factors and spatial malaria clusters are crucial for designing adaptive strategies to maximize the impact of limited public health resources toward eliminating malaria in Vietnam

    Seasonal and Spatial Environmental Influence on <i>Opisthorchis viverrini</i> Intermediate Hosts, Abundance, and Distribution: Insights on Transmission Dynamics and Sustainable Control

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    <div><p>Background</p><p><i>Opisthorchis viverrini</i> (<i>Ov</i>) is a complex-life-cycle trematode affecting 10 million people in SEA (Southeast Asia). Human infection occurs when infected cyprinid fish are consumed raw or undercooked. <i>Ov</i> requires three hosts and presents two free-living parasitic stages. As a consequence <i>Ov</i> transmission and infection in intermediate and human hosts are strongly mediated by environmental factors and understanding how environmental variability influences intermediate host abundance is critical. The objectives of this study were 1) to document water parameters, intermediate hosts abundance and infection spatio-temporal variation, 2) to assess their causal relationships and identify windows of transmission risk.</p><p>Methodology/Principal Findings</p><p>Fish and snails were collected monthly for one year at 12 sites in Lawa Lake, an <i>Ov-</i>endemic region of Khon Kaen Province in Northeast Thailand. Physicochemical water parameters [pH, temperature (Tp), dissolved oxygen (DO), Salinity, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solid (TDS), nitrite nitrogen (NO<sub>2</sub>-N), lead (Pb), total coliform bacteria (TCB) and fecal coliform bacteria (FCB)] were measured. Multivariate analyses, linear models and kriging were used to characterize water parameter variation and its influence on host abundance and infection prevalence. We found that sampling sites could be grouped in three clusters and discriminated along a nitrogen-salinity gradient where higher levels in the lake’s southern region predicted higher <i>Bithynia</i> relative abundance (<i>P</i><0.05) and lower snail and fish species diversity (<i>P</i><0.05). Highest <i>Bithynia</i> abundance occurred during rainy season (<i>P</i><0.001), independently of site influence. Cyprinids were the most abundant fish family and higher cyprinid relative abundance was found in areas with higher <i>Bithynia</i> relative abundance (<i>P</i><0.05). <i>Ov</i> infection in snails was anecdotal while <i>Ov</i> infection in fish was higher in the southern region (<i>P</i><0.001) at sites showing high FCB.</p><p>Conclusions/Significance</p><p>Our results indicate that water contamination and waterways configuration can influence freshwater communities’ assemblages possibly creating ideal conditions for sustained transmission. Sustainable control may require a better appreciation of the system’s ecology with wise governance and development planning particularly in the current context of SEA agricultural intensification and landscape modification.</p></div

    PCA environmental biplot.

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    <p>(A) PC1 –PC2 biplot, (B) PC5 –PC1 biplot, (C) PC2 –PC5 biplot. Sampling sites (dots) and variables (arrows). The green dots represent cluster 3 southern region sites; the black dots represent cluster 1 near shore sites; and the red dots represent cluster 2 deeper water sites.</p

    Generalized linear mixed effects model assessing the influence of seasonality, site clusters and individual sampling sites on the relative abundance, species diversity and <i>Opisthorchis viverrini</i> infection rate in <i>Bsg</i> snails and cyprinid fish.

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    <p>Generalized linear mixed effects model assessing the influence of seasonality, site clusters and individual sampling sites on the relative abundance, species diversity and <i>Opisthorchis viverrini</i> infection rate in <i>Bsg</i> snails and cyprinid fish.</p
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