Pemantauan dan Peringatan Dini Kekeringan Pertanian di Indonesia

Abstrak. Kekeringan pertanian merupakan bencana alam yang sangat kompleks dan mempengaruhi daerah yang luas. Di Indonesia kejadian kekeringan terjadi hampir setiap tahun dan meningkat tajam pada kondisi El Niño yang menyebabkan penuruan produksi pertanian yang signifikan. Namun, sampai saat ini sistim pemantauan, peringatan dini dan diseminasi kekeringan yang komprehensif dan terintegrasi belum tersedia. Pemantauan kekeringan telah dilakukan dan dilaporkan oleh lembaga terkait seperti LAPAN dan BMKG, sedangkan pemantauan kekeringan pertanian dilakukan oleh Kementerian Pertanian. Dalam membangun sistim peringatan dini kekeringan pertanian, pemantauan saja belum memadai karena diperlukan komponen prediksi dan antisipasi dampaknya. Sampai saat ini prediksi kekeringan pertanian yang operasional untuk wilayah Indonesia belum tersedia. Balitbangtan sedang mengembangkan sistim prediksi bencana kekeringan dan banjir pada tanaman padi, namun belum operasional. Sistim peringatan dini kekeringan pertanian sangat diperlukan untuk menurunkan kehilangan produksi pangan. Tulisan ini memaparkan tentang berbagai definisi, indeks dan karakteristik kekeringan, pemantauan kekeringan, perkembangan terbaru mengenai deteksi dini kekeringan pertanian, dan pendekatan yang diperlukan dalam membangun sistim peringatan dini kekeringan pertanian di Indonesia. Informasi dan isu yang disampaikan pada tulisan ini dapat mendorong pengambil kebijakan untuk mengembangkan dan sistim pemantauan dan peringatan dini untuk mengatasi dampak kekeringan lebih efektif.Abstract. Agricultural drought is the most complex natural hazard and affects large areas then causes significant drops in food production. In Indonesia, paddy field drought occurs almost every year and extends during El Niño phenomena with severe consequences for agricultural production in Indonesia. However, up to now, a comprehensive, integrated drought monitoring, early warning and delivery system did not exist. Drought monitoring has already conducted dan reported by the relevant agencies namely BMKG and LAPAN, while agricultural drought monitoring is conducted by Ministry of Agriculture . For developing agricultural drought early warning systems, beside of monitoring components of prediction impact model on agriculture are also impartant. Currently, operational prediction of agricultural drought in Indonesia is not yet available. Balitbangtan is developing agricultural drought prediction for rice, but is not yet operational. If an effective early warning system for monitoring and predicting agricultural drought can be conducted and developed, decline in food crop production can be minimized. Information from issue presented in this article will help policy maker and planner to develop or improve drought monitoring and early warning system to tackle drought impact more effectively

Pemantauan Dan Peringatan Dini Kekeringan Pertanian Di Indonesia

. Agricultural drought is the most complex natural hazard and affects large areas then causes significant drops in food production. In Indonesia, paddy field drought occurs almost every year and extends during El Niño phenomena with severe consequences for agricultural production in Indonesia. However, up to now, a comprehensive, integrated drought monitoring, early warning and delivery system did not exist. Drought monitoring has already conducted dan reported by the relevant agencies namely BMKG and LAPAN, while agricultural drought monitoring is conducted by Ministry of Agriculture . For developing agricultural drought early warning systems, beside of monitoring components of prediction impact model on agriculture are also impartant. Currently, operational prediction of agricultural drought in Indonesia is not yet available. Balitbangtan is developing agricultural drought prediction for rice, but is not yet operational. If an effective early warning system for monitoring and predicting agricultural drought can be conducted and developed, decline in food crop production can be minimized. Information from issue presented in this article will help policy maker and planner to develop or improve drought monitoring and early warning system to tackle drought impact more effectively

Penggunaan Prakiraan Musim untuk Pertanian di Indonesia: Status Terkini dan Tantangan Kedepan

Prakiraan musim sangat penting dalam pengambilan keputusan usaha tani karena variabilitas iklim yang semakin meningkat sebagai dampak dari perubahan iklim. Prakiraan musim memiliki potensi untuk bisa membantu pengambil kebijakan dan keputusan pertanian. Kajian empirik dan literatur serta kuantifikasi nilai ekonomi pemanfaatan prakiraan iklim di Indonesia untuk pertanian masih sangat terbatas. Tulisan ini merupakan tinjauan mengenai pemanfaatan prakiraan musim dalam sistem usahatani, perkembangan terkini prakiraan musim, nilai ekonomi prakiraan musim, kendala dan tantangan ke depan. Kajian nilai ekonomi prakiraan musim untuk pertanian masih belum banyak dilakukan, kuantifikasi manfaat prakiraan musim sangat penting untuk meyakinkan pengambil kebijakan atau petani bahwa prakiraan musim memberikan manfaat bagi pertanian. Prakiraan musim masih sulit dipahami oleh petani bahkan penyuluh. Beberapa user interface telah dikembangkan untuk memudahkan memanfaatkan prakiraan musim untuk pertanian. Peningkatan akurasi prakiraan musim ke depan harus menjadi prioritas pembangunan pertanian dan merupakan salah satu investasi penting dalam adaptasi variabilitas dan perubahan iklim. Peningkatan akurasi prakiraan musim sangat tergantung pada kapasitas sumber daya manusia serta sarana pendukung seperti sistem pemantauan dan pengamatan data iklim, pengembangan model prakiraan musim .Pengembangan berbagai user interface yang lebih mudah dipahami dan diaplikasikan oleh petani harus dilakuka

Kejadian Iklim Ekstrem dan Dampaknya Terhadap Pertanian Tanaman Pangan di Indonesia

Abstrak. Perubahan iklim telah menganggu sistem iklim global dan menyebabkan meningkatnya frekuensi dan intensitas kejadian iklim ekstrem. Tulisan ini merupakan tinjauan mengenai proyeksi skenario iklim, faktor pengendali kejadian iklim ekstrem, serta dampaknya terhadap sektor pertanian di Indonesia. Dampak kejadian iklim ekstrim yang dominan pada sektor pertanian adalah kerusakan tanaman akibat kekeringan dan banjir. Akibat perubahan iklim, kekeringan dan banjir diproyeksikan akan meningkat frekuensi dan intensitasnya di masa akan datang. Informasi prediksi musim dapat digunakan untuk mengetahui intensitas dan wilayah yang terdampak dalam 1-2 musim ke depan. Sedangkan dampak jangka panjang 2-3 dekade ke depan dapat diketahui berdasarkan skenario proyeksi iklim. Prediksi musim telah banyak di manfaatkan untuk menyusun strategi dan kebijakan operasional seperti menyesuaikan waktu tanam, pemilihan komoditas, dan distribusi peralatan pertanian. Namun, kajian proyeksi iklim dan dampaknya terhadap produksi pangan masih sangat terbatas. Informasi tersebut diperlukan dalam perencanaan arah dan pembangunan pertanian ke depan. Oleh karena itu, kajian proyeksi iklim dan dampaknya terhadap produksi pangan perlu menjadi prioritas penelitian pertanian di Indonesia.Abstract. Climate change has disrupted the global climate system and lead to increase frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. This paper is an overview of future climate scenarios, driving force of extreme climate events, and its impacts on the agricultural sector in Indonesia. The common impacts of extreme climate events in Indonesia’s agriculture are crop damaged due to drought and flood. Due to climate change, drought and flood events is projected to intensify in the future. Seasonal prediction have been widely used to formulate operational strategies and policies such as planting time, commodity choice, and distribution of agricultural equipment. While, the climate projections are required for the forthcoming decades. However, the study of climate projections and their impact on food production for the next decades is still very limited. The information are required for planning and direction of future agricultural development. Therefore, the study of climate projections and their impact on food crop should be a priority of agricultural research in Indonesia

Parameter Iklim sebagai Indikator Peringatan Dini Serangan Hama Penyakit Tanaman

Abstract. Efek negatif pemanasan global akan mempengaruhi sebagian besar organisme hidup termasuk hama penyakit tanaman. Variabel iklim seperti suhu, curah hujan, kelembaban, dan atmosfer gas akan berinteraksi dengan makhluk hidup/tanaman dengan berbagai cara dengan mekanisme yang beragam. Perubahan suhu dan konsentrasi CO2 mempengaruhi mahkluk hidup/tanaman secara langsung dalam hal jaringan dan alokasi fotosintesis organ spesifik dan secara tidak langsung melalui perubahan distribusi geografis dan dinamika populasi hama penyakit tanaman. Peningkatan suhu akan menyebabkan serangga/hama menjadi lebih berlimpah, ada kaitan kuat antara ledakan (outbreak) hama penyakit tanaman dengan variabiltas iklim. Model hubungan parameter iklim dengan serangan hama penyakit tanaman dapat digunakan sebagai teknologi adaptasi peringatan dini untuk mencegah terjadinya serangan hama penyakit tanaman, agar kehilangan hasil tanaman dapat ditekan. Konsep tulisan ini adalah pentingnya membangun peringatan dini serangan OPT berbasis model persamaan iklim dengan serangan OPT, sehingga data prediksi iklim dapat dimanfaatkan, dan kehilangan hasil akibat serangan OPT dapat ditekan. Selain itu agar sistem dapat berkembang dan berkisinambungan pembangunan sistem peringatan dini perlu integrasi beberapa instansi terkait, yaitu Kementerian Pertanian dan Universitas sebagai penyusun model prediksi dan BMKG sebagai penyedia data prediksi iklimnya

Impact of Extreme Climate Events on Rice-Based Farming System : Case Study at Bandung District

Bandung District is found to be an area that is vulnerable to the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Whenever ENSO occurs, this district is always suffering from drought and flood leading to significant crop production lost. The vulnerable areas to flood and drought are Bojongsoang and Ciparay. The objectives of the study are : a) to identify problems related climate risks in rice-based farming system and the adaptation of mechanism to cope with climate extreme; b) to elucidate relationship of ENSO development with rainfall variability and effect of rainfall to flood and drought occurrences; and c) to evaluate economics loss due to climate extreme. Assessment of farming system at the study sites was conducted using Rapid Rural Appraisal (RRA) method. Farmer's annual income were analyzed using frequency analysis of gross margin. The results showed that Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Tropical Pacific has significantly affected on rainfall in Ciparay sub-District. The raise in SST anomaly is clearly a subject to delay the rainy season, to prolong the dry season period, and to decrease rainfall amount up to below normal, while the decreasing of SST anomaly resulting high intensity of rainfall in the rainy season and lower in the dry season. Whenever ENSO occurs, most farmers is always suffering from drought and flood leading to significant crop failure. Most farmers realized that climate has been changed and recently there is a trend uncertainly of rainfall pattern (proved by 84% of respondents). Nevertheless, they are still using traditional way to determine the beginning of planting season. Results showed that Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) have smaller value in floods and droughts than normal conditions. Annual net income analysis suggests that many farmers will have negative annual income either at first or second crops fail. Based on the interviews with local authorities and farmers, it is needed to increase awareness of decision maker, extension workers and farmers to climate extremes and to improve their capacity to manage climate risks

Anomali Iklim, Evaluasi Masa Tanam, Tingkat Kehilangan Hasil Dan Pengaturan Sistem Produksi Pertanian Di Kalimantan Timur*[climate Anomaly, Planting Period Evaluation, Crop Yield Loss, and Agriculture Production Management in East Kalimantan]

Water availability generally enhanced accumulation crop productivity in short time caused yield accumulation in that period. El-Nino, a climate phenomenon that increased of intensity and frequency lately caused planting period determination is being more important in minimizing agriculture risk like El-Nino. El-Nino impact on season displacement and rainfall drop were carried out with weighted regression between anomaly of rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST). Then, the information use to quantify rainfall fluctuation in relation with SST. Rainfall forecasting for next 3-6 month used in evaluation of planting period and then recommend some scenario with different level yield loss.Result showed that rainfall in north-side of East Kalimantan not affected by SST, but in south-side the correlation was significant. Especially El-Nino 1997 has forwarded dry season and delaied wet season.Analysis of planting period on dry season showed that paddy, corn, and tomato had high yield loss caused by water stress.Cropping pattern and planting period modification were required to suppress the yield loss. One alternative was by implementing runoff and rainfall harvesting to avoid yield accumulation only in wet season. Conventional cropping pattern that rely on rainfall should be managed in to whole area, so that quantity and continuity of yield may be able to be optimized

Global Climate Indices and Its Effect on Extreme Climate Events in Indonesia

Many facts show that El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and Dipole Mode are closely related to rainfall event in Indonesia, but the magnitude of its impact varies with site. Therefore, it is needed to determine the most singnificant global climate indices that has closely related to Indonesian\u27s rainfall. The significant indices are able to be used in predicting rainfall in Indonesia.The objective of the present study is to detemine global climate indicators that have the significant effect to rainfall, climate/season anomaly, the occurence flood and drought in Indonesia. The study has been done through the following steps ; 1) regression analysis of rainfall with global climate indices of Sea Surface Temperatur Anomaly/SST in Nino 3.4 zone, Dipole mode Index (DMI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), interacton of SSTA with DMI, and interaction of SOI with DMI), 2) Plotting of rainfall anomaly and global climate indices for determining rainfall deviates with deviant of global climate forcing indices, 3) analysis of probability of exceedence for determining onset and lenght of wet season on climate extreme event, and 4) analysis impact of climate extreme event on flood and drougt occurences and damage areas of ricefield. The result showed that the closest relationship between global climate forcing indices and rainfall inIndonesia is SST in Nino 3.4 zone and only have significant relationship to rainfall in transisional season (August-November). Negative correlation between SST and rainfall indicates that the increase of SST anomaly causes the decrease of rainfall on August-November period. Probability of exceedance analysis showed that if the SST on September decrease below -0.5 -0.5 oC (indicate La-Niña event), the wet season will start earlier withlonger period. In contrast, if SST increases above 0.5 oC (indicate El-Niño event) the wet season will delay with shorter period. Impact of drought on damage of ricefield is more significant than the flood occurence