Prospective validation of a checklist to predict short-term death in older patients after emergency department admission in Australia and Ireland

Abstract Background Emergency departments (EDs) are pressured environment where patients with supportive and palliative care needs may not be identified. We aimed to test the predictive ability of the CriSTAL (Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care) checklist to flag patients at risk of death within 3 months who may benefit from timely end-of-life discussions. Methods Prospective cohorts of >65-year-old patients admitted for at least one night via EDs in five Australian hospitals and one Irish hospital. Purpose-trained nurses and medical students screened for frailty using two instruments concurrently and completed the other risk factors on the CriSTAL tool at admission. Postdischarge telephone follow-up was used to determine survival status. Logistic regression and bootstrapping techniques were used to test the predictive accuracy of CriSTAL for death within 90 days of admission as primary outcome. Predictability of in-hospital death was the secondary outcome. Results A total of 1,182 patients, with median age 76 to 80 years (IRE-AUS), were included. The deceased had significantly higher mean CriSTAL with Australian mean of 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.7–8.6) versus 5.7 (95% CI = 5.1–6.2) and Irish mean of 7.7 (95% CI = 6.9–8.5) versus 5.7 (95% CI = 5.1–6.2). The model with Fried frailty score was optimal for the derivation (Australian) cohort but prediction with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was also good (areas under the receiver-operating characteristic [AUROC] = 0.825 and 0.81, respectively). Values for the validation (Irish) cohort were AUROC = 0.70 with Fried and 0.77 using CFS. A minimum of five of 29 variables were sufficient for accurate prediction, and a cut point of 7+ or 6+ depending on the cohort was strongly indicative of risk of death. The most significant independent predictor of short-term death in both cohorts was frailty, carrying a twofold risk of death. CriSTAL's accuracy for in-hospital death prediction was also good (AUROC = 0.795 and 0.81 in Australia and Ireland, respectively), with high specificity and negative predictive values. Conclusions The modified CriSTAL tool (with CFS instead of Fried's frailty instrument) had good discriminant power to improve certainty of short-term mortality prediction in both health systems. The predictive ability of models is anticipated to help clinicians gain confidence in initiating earlier end-of-life discussions. The practicalities of embedding screening for risk of death in routine practice warrant further investigation

The contribution of X-linked coding variation to severe developmental disorders

Abstract: Over 130 X-linked genes have been robustly associated with developmental disorders, and X-linked causes have been hypothesised to underlie the higher developmental disorder rates in males. Here, we evaluate the burden of X-linked coding variation in 11,044 developmental disorder patients, and find a similar rate of X-linked causes in males and females (6.0% and 6.9%, respectively), indicating that such variants do not account for the 1.4-fold male bias. We develop an improved strategy to detect X-linked developmental disorders and identify 23 significant genes, all of which were previously known, consistent with our inference that the vast majority of the X-linked burden is in known developmental disorder-associated genes. Importantly, we estimate that, in male probands, only 13% of inherited rare missense variants in known developmental disorder-associated genes are likely to be pathogenic. Our results demonstrate that statistical analysis of large datasets can refine our understanding of modes of inheritance for individual X-linked disorders

Vermisidal dan Ovisidal Ekstrak Daun Pepaya Terhadap Cacing Ascaris suum Secara In Vitro

Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui vermisidal dan ovisidal dari ekstrak daun pepaya terhadap cacing Ascaris suum. Menggunakan  Rancangan  Acak  Lengkap (RAL), dengan perlakuan beberapa konsentrasi ekstrak daun pepaya 1,5%, 3%, 4,5% dan 6%; kontrol negatif menggunakan NaCl fisiologis dan kontrol positif menggunakan Albendazole 0,12%. Dilakukan uji vermisidal dan uji  ovisidal, uji ovisidal dibagi  menjadi  dua  uji,  yaitu kontak langsung dan kontak tidak  langsung. Untuk uji vermisidal data dianalisis dengan Analisis Probit untuk mengetahui LC100 (Lethal concentration) dan LT100 (Lethal  time), sedangkan  untuk  uji  ovisidal  data dianalisis dengan Sidik Ragam dan  jika terdapat perbedaan, dilanjutkan dengan uji jarak berganda Duncan. Hasil  penelitian  vermisidal  didapatkan  LC100 ekstrak  daun  pepaya adalah  3,362%  dan  LT100 39,822  jam.  Untuk  uji  ovisidal  kontak  langsung  dan kontak tidak langsung didapatkan ekstrak daun pepaya berpengaruh sangat nyata (P<0,01) terhadap daya berembrio telur A. suum. Dari hasil penelitian ini disimpulkan bahwa ekstrak daun pepaya efektif sebagai vermisidal dan ovisidal terhadap cacing A. suum secara in-vitro

Changes in Right Ventricle Function After Mitral Valve Repair Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction can occur after cardiac surgery and persist for years. We assessed perioperative RV systolic function in patients undergoing mitral valve (MV) repair and further compared minimally invasive robotic-assisted mitral valve repair (MIMVr) vs standard \u27open\u27 MV repair (MVr). Speckle tracking (RV free wall strain [RVS]) was used as a sensitive echocardiography method to assess RV function. METHODS: Retrospective analysis, over 3 years, of consecutive patients (n = 158) referred to Mayo Clinic (Rochester, MN, USA). Preoperative, pre-discharge and 1 year transthoracic echocardiograms were reviewed. A prospective pilot study was performed for sample size estimation. Primary outcome was RV free wall strain (RVS). RESULTS: Right ventricular free wall strain declined after MV repair surgery (-22.6 ± 7% vs -15 ± 6%, p \u3c 0.001). There were smaller reductions in RVS in MIMVr vs MVr group (-6.0 ± 9% vs -10.3 ± 8%, p \u3c 0.01), which persisted after adjusting for baseline values (RVS treatment effect 1.5%, p = 0.007). There was greater recovery in MIMVr vs MVr group at 1 year follow-up vs pre-surgery values (-3.4 ± 9% vs -8.1 ± 8% respectively, p \u3c 0.001, RVS treatment effect 1.7%, p = 0.001). Bypass time was higher in the MIMVr group (80min ± 22 vs 40min ± 20, p \u3c 0.0001). The echo findings remained significant correcting for age, pulmonary pressures and change in ejection fraction. CONCLUSIONS: Right ventricular systolic dysfunction is common after MV repair surgery. Deterioration in RV contraction is less pronounced following MIMVr vs MVr and is associated with enhanced RV functional recovery at 1 year, albeit not to preoperative levels. This may potentially be associated with clinical functional improvement but further studies are warranted to investigate this