Multinomial Logistic Regression Model for the Inferential Risk Age Groups for Infection Caused by \u3cem\u3eVibrio cholerae\u3c/em\u3e in Kolkata, India

Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) modeling is an effective approach for categorical outcomes, as compared with discriminant function analysis and log-linear models for profiling individual category of dependent variable. To explore the yearly change of inferential age groups of acute diarrhoeal patients infected with Vibrio cholerae during 1996-2000 by MLR, systematic sampling data were generated from an active surveillance study. Among 1330 V.cholerae infected cases, the predominant age category was up to 5 years accounting for 478 (30.5%) cases. The independent variables V.cholerae O1 (p\u3c0.001) and non-O1 and non-O139 (p \u3c 0.001) were significantly associated with children under 5 years age group. V.cholerae O139 inferential age group was \u3e 40 years. The infection mediated by V.cholerae O1 had significantly decreasing trend Exp(B) year wise from 1996 to 2000 (p \u3c 0.001, p \u3c 0.001, p \u3c 0.001, p \u3c 0.001 and p \u3c 0.001, respectively). MLR model showed that up to 5 year’s age children are more vulnerable to infection caused by V.cholerae O1

The malaria and typhoid fever burden in the slums of Kolkata, India: data from a prospective community-based study.

Recent research has indicated that the malaria burden in Asia may have been vastly underestimated. We conducted a prospective community-based study in an impoverished urban site in Kolkata, India, to estimate the burden of malaria and typhoid fever and to identify risk factors for these diseases. In a population of 60452 people, 3605 fever episodes were detected over a 12-month period. The blood films of 93 febrile patients contained Plasmodium (90 P. vivax, 2 P. falciparum and 1 P. malariae). Blood cultures from 95 patients grew Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi. Malaria patients were found to be significantly older (mean age 29 years) compared with patients with typhoid fever (15 years; P<0.001) but had similar clinical features on presentation. Having a household member with malaria, illiteracy, low household income and living in a structure not built of bricks were associated with an increased risk for malaria. Having a household member with typhoid fever and poor hygiene were associated with typhoid fever. A geographic analysis of the spatial distribution of malaria and typhoid fever cases detected high-risk neighbourhoods for each disease. Focal interventions to minimise human-vector contact and improved personal hygiene and targeted vaccination campaigns could help to prevent malaria and typhoid fever in this site

Evaluating Investments in Typhoid Vaccines in Two Slums in Kolkata, India

New-generation vaccines against typhoid fever have the potential to reduce the burden of disease in areas where the disease is endemic. The case for public expenditure on typhoid Vi polysaccharide vaccines for two low-income, high-incidence slums (Narkeldanga and Tiljala) in Kolkata, India, was examined. Three measures of the economic benefits of the vaccines were used: private and public cost-of-illness (COI) avoided; avoided COI plus mortality risk-reduction benefits; and willingness-to-pay (WTP) derived from stated preference (contingent valuation) studies conducted in Tiljala in 2004. Benefits and costs were examined from a social perspective. The study represents a unique opportunity to evaluate typhoid-vaccine programmes using a wealth of new site-specific epidemiological and economic data. Three typhoid-vaccination strategies (targeting only enrolled school children, targeting all children, and targeting adults and children) would most likely pass a social cost-benefit test, unless benefits are restricted to include only avoided COI. All three strategies would be considered ‘very cost-effective’ using the standard comparisons of cost per disability-adjusted life-year avoided with per-capita gross domestic product. However, at an average total cost per immunized person of ∼US$ 1.1, a typhoid-vaccination programme would absorb a sixth of existing public-sector spending on health (on a per-capita basis) in India. Because there appears to be significant private economic demand for typhoid vaccines, the Government could design a financially-sustainable programme with user-fees. The results show that a programme where adults pay a higher fee to subsidize vaccines for children (who have higher incidence) would avoid more cases than a uniform user-fee and still achieve revenue-neutrality

Retrospective Analysis of Serotype Switching of Vibrio cholerae O1 in a Cholera Endemic Region Shows It Is a Non-random Process.

Genomic data generated from clinical Vibrio cholerae O1 isolates collected over a five year period in an area of Kolkata, India with seasonal cholera outbreaks allowed a detailed genetic analysis of serotype switching that occurred from Ogawa to Inaba and back to Ogawa. The change from Ogawa to Inaba resulted from mutational disruption of the methyltransferase encoded by the wbeT gene. Re-emergence of the Ogawa serotype was found to result either from expansion of an already existing Ogawa clade or reversion of the mutation in an Inaba clade. Our data suggests that such transitions are not random events but rather driven by as yet unidentified selection mechanisms based on differences in the structure of the O1 antigen or in the serotype-determining wbeT gene

Determining optimal neighborhood size for ecological studies using leave-one-out cross validation

We employed a leave-one-out cross validation to determine optimally sized neighborhood. Variations between a single point and the other points within each filter size for all the points in the study area were evaluated, and the mean squared error (MSE) for each filter was calculated. The filter with the lowest MSE was considered as the optimal neighborhood. The method is useful in determining the optimal neighborhood for both geographic and population filters

Treatment Cost for Typhoid Fever at Two Hospitals in Kolkata, India

The purpose of this study was to estimate treatment cost for typhoid fever at two hospitals in Kolkata, India. This study was an incidence-based cost-of-illness analysis from the providers’ perspective. Micro-costing approach was employed for calculating patient-specific data. Unit costs of medical services used in the calculation were directly measured from the study hospital by standard method. The study hospitals were selected based on accessibility to data and cooperation. Eighty-three Widal-positive and/or culture-confirmed patients with typhoid fever during November 2003–April 2006 were included in the study. Most (93%) patients were children. Eighty-one percent was treated at the outpatient department. The average duration of hospitalization for child and adult patients was 8.4 and 4.2 days respectively. The average cost of treating children, adults, and all patients was US$16.72, 72.71, and 20.77 respectively (in 2004 prices). Recalculation based on 80$ 14.53, 36.44, and 16.11 respectively

Evaluating Investments in Typhoid Vaccines in Two Slums in Kolkata, India

New-generation vaccines against typhoid fever have the potential to reduce the burden of disease in areas where the disease is endemic. The case for public expenditure on typhoid Vi polysaccharide vaccines for two low-income, high-incidence slums (Narkeldanga and Tiljala) in Kolkata, India, was examined. Three measures of the economic benefits of the vaccines were used: private and public cost-of-illness (COI) avoided; avoided COI plus mortality risk-reduction benefits; and willingness-to-pay (WTP) derived from stated preference (contingent valuation) studies conducted in Tiljala in 2004. Benefits and costs were examined from a social perspective. The study represents a unique opportunity to evaluate typhoid-vaccine programmes using a wealth of new site-specific epidemiological and economic data. Three typhoid-vaccination strategies (targeting only enrolled school children, targeting all children, and targeting adults and children) would most likely pass a social cost-benefit test, unless benefits are restricted to include only avoided COI. All three strategies would be considered 'very cost-effective' using the standard comparisons of cost per disability-adjusted life-year avoided with per-capita gross domestic product. However, at an average total cost per immunized person of ~US$ 1.1, a typhoid-vaccination programme would absorb a sixth of existing public-sector spending on health (on a per-capita basis) in India. Because there appears to be significant private economic demand for typhoid vaccines, the Government could design a financially-sustainable programme with user-fees. The results show that a programme where adults pay a higher fee to subsidize vaccines for children (who have higher incidence) would avoid more cases than a uniform user-fee and still achieve revenue-neutrality

Evaluating Investments in Typhoid Vaccines in Two Slums in Kolkata, India

New-generation vaccines against typhoid fever have the potential to reduce the burden of disease in areas where the disease is endemic. The case for public expenditure on typhoid Vi polysaccharide vaccines for two low-income, high-incidence slums (Narkeldanga and Tiljala) in Kolkata, India, was examined. Three measures of the economic benefits of the vaccines were used: private and public cost-of-illness (COI) avoided; avoided COI plus mortality risk-reduction benefits; and willingness-to-pay (WTP) derived from stated preference (contingent valuation) studies conducted in Tiljala in 2004. Benefits and costs were examined from a social perspective. The study represents a unique opportunity to evaluate typhoid-vaccine programmes using a wealth of new site-specific epidemiological and economic data. Three typhoid-vaccination strategies (targeting only enrolled school children, targeting all children, and targeting adults and children) would most likely pass a social cost-benefit test, unless benefits are restricted to include only avoided COI. All three strategies would be considered ‘very cost-effective’ using the standard comparisons of cost per disability-adjusted life-year avoided with per-capita gross domestic product. However, at an average total cost per immunized person of ∼US$ 1.1, a typhoid-vaccination programme would absorb a sixth of existing public-sector spending on health (on a per-capita basis) in India. Because there appears to be significant private economic demand for typhoid vaccines, the Government could design a financially-sustainable programme with user-fees. The results show that a programme where adults pay a higher fee to subsidize vaccines for children (who have higher incidence) would avoid more cases than a uniform user-fee and still achieve revenue-neutrality

Health care seeking for Childhood Diarrhea in Developing Countries: Evidence from Seven Sites in Africa and Asia

We performed serial Health Care Utilization and Attitudes Surveys (HUASs) among caretakers of children ages 0–59 months randomly selected from demographically defined populations participating in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a case-control study of moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) in seven developing countries. The surveys aimed to estimate the proportion of children with MSD who would present to sentinel health centers (SHCs) where GEMS case recruitment would occur and provide a basis for adjusting disease incidence rates to include cases not seen at the SHCs. The proportion of children at each site reported to have had an incident episode of MSD during the 7 days preceding the survey ranged from 0.7% to 4.4% for infants (0–11 months of age), from 0.4% to 4.7% for toddlers (12–23 months of age), and from 0.3% to 2.4% for preschoolers (24–59 months of age). The proportion of MSD episodes at each site taken to an SHC within 7 days of diarrhea onset was 15–56%, 17–64%, and 7–33% in the three age strata, respectively. High cost of care and insufficient knowledge about danger signs were associated with lack of any care-seeking outside the home. Most children were not offered recommended fluids and continuing feeds at home. We have shown the utility of serial HUASs as a tool for optimizing operational and methodological issues related to the performance of a large case-control study and deriving population-based incidence rates of MSD. Moreover, the surveys suggest key targets for educational interventions that might improve the outcome of diarrheal diseases in low-resource settings