On The Art of Creating and Managing Policies: Facilitating the Emergence of Resilience

Available on: http://www.resilience-engineering.org/REPapers/Sundstrom_Hollnagel.pdfInternational audienceResilience denotes an organization's ability to adjust effectively to the multifaceted impact of internal and external events over a significant time period. To be resilient, an organisation must be able to deal with unexpected and disruptive events as well as to understand the longer term impact of such events. In the Financial Services domain this translates into the ability to identify and successfully manage risk at all levels in the organization while sustaining a profitable business. Key tools for risk management include effective policy design and policy management processes. Based on a system state view of businesses, the paper outlines some principles for organising policy design and processes related to policy management, using an example from the Financial Services as an illustration

Modelling Risk in Financial Services Systems: A Functional Risk Modelling Perspective

http://www.resilience-engineering.org/proceedingsRE3_1.htmlInternational audienceFinancial market events in 2007 and 2008 pose a fundamental challenge for traditional Financial Services industry risk assessment approaches such as Value at Risk (VaR) models and capital adequacy risk measures. Unexampled events such as the liquidity crunch of the global credit markets, and its impact on individual Financial Services firms, clearly demonstrated the need to complement VaR risk models and traditional risk metrics with other types of risk models and metrics. The goal of the present paper is to introduce such a different type of risk modelling framework, i.e., functional risk modelling. Key concepts from resilience engineering are introduced and leveraged to define the approach. The primary goal of the proposed modelling framework is to identify functional dependencies between a firm's business functions and the functions that drive key behaviours of the global financial markets. An example from 2007's financial markets is used to illustrate the proposed framework, i.e., the rapid demise of the UK based residential mortgage firm Northern Rock

Modeling of room fire growth - Combustible lining materials

A computational procedure has been developed to correlate the room fire test process and results from the proposed IS0 small scale laboratory tests. The analysis assumes that the full scale room fire test follows the proposed ASTM method, implying that the lining material covers ceiling and walls. The procedure requires that the heat release measurement response time of the test room is evaluated and for a specific material linked to results from the ignitability test. From the same test, a value of koc must be calculated. From a small scale rate of heat release test are evaluated specific characteristics describing the RHR-curve. The derived test room and material characteristics are used as input data to an uncomplicated mathematical expression, essentially describing the full scale test fire process as a concurrent flame spread phenomenon. Undetermined parametors in the model have boon derived using regression analysis and results from seven full scale room tests. In these the tested materials were of such thickness that no burning through occurred. The quantitative accuracy was thought acceptable but further experimental confirmation and sensitivity studies are needed to assess the inherent variability. Qualitatively the procedure predicted the same relative ranking of materials as the room test. For thin surface finish materials on a non-combustible base it was possible to derive a radically simple expression to be used as indication of the risk of flashover. Again, the final usefulness can only be evaluated on the basis of further experimental evidence. In summary, it is thought that a first step has been taken in the efforts to use results from small scale tests to rationally predict full scale fire growth (for one specified scenario) and rank materials

Combustible linings and room fire growth - a first analysis

The objectives of the project were threefold: to utilize the proposed ISO tests to derive basic flammability characteristics which could rationally bc used as classification criteria: to generate a full-scale fire test standard: and finally, to mathematically correlate small-scale test data and the full-scale fire process. For this purpose 13 materials were tested in eight small-scale tests in the full-scale test room and in a one-third scalc version of this room. Table 1 lists the materials and Table 2 the test methods. Thc project is part of a larger one, described in Ref 3, carried out jointly by the Swedish National Testing Institute and Lund Institute of Technology

Fire severity effects on the extent of pine twisting rust on the Sala fire field

Knäckesjuka (Melampsora pinitorqua) är en skoglig skadegörare som orsakar skador på ung tall (Pinus sylvestris). Svampen värdeväxlar mellan asp (Populus tremula) och tall för att fullborda sin livscykel. Tidigare studier visar en tydlig korrelation mellan hård brandhårdhet och kraftig lövetablering efter brand. Studier om knäckesjuka visar att svampen är starkt relaterat till närvaro av asp och asptäthet på beståndsnivå. Det är däremot inte studerat hur knäckesjuka påverkar tallföryngringar efter brand. Syftet med denna studie var att undersöka en möjlig korrelation mellan brandhårdhet och knäckesjuka, samt om brandhårdheten har en indirekt påverkan på knäckesjuka genom att gynna förekomsten av asp/mängden aspbiomassa. Studien undersökte även om viltbete på asp har en negativ eller positiv inverkan på knäckesjukans angrepp. Studieområdet var brandfältet i Sala och inventeringen utfördes i elva bestånd uppdelade i fyra geografiskt skilda områden. Skogsbranden sommaren 2014 utanför Sala är unikt i Sverige för sin storlek och omfattning. Branden skadade 14 000 ha skog och gav upphov till stora variationer av brandhårdhet (bränningsdjup). Både före och efter branden har det förekommit ett aktivt brukande av skogen. Det har observerats knäckesjuka i tallföryngringarna och rapporterats om stora mängder klövvilt. Allt detta gör brandfältet synnerligen lämpat för att studera sambanden mellan knäckesjuka, brandhårdhet, aspförekomst och viltbete. Denna studie fann varken att knäckesjukans omfattning eller att förekomsten av asp var kopplat till brandhårdhet/alt. hur hårt det brunnit. Däremot fanns det variationer i knäckesjukans omfattning mellan de geografiska områdena. Denna variation var kopplad till förekomsten av asp. Områden med hög förekomst av knäckesjuka hade hög förekomst av asp. Det gick inte att styrka att viltbete hade någon påverkan på angrepp av knäckesjukans. Idag är ca 15 % av tallplantorna på brandfältet infekterade av knäckesjuka. Det finns stora skillnader i hur olika geografiska områden drabbats av svampen. Med det i åtanke och att svampen kan drabba tallföryngringar upptill 15 års ålder bör det finnas en stark oro för att utbredningen av knäckesjukan kan öka i framtiden.Pine twisting rust (Melampsora pinitorqua) is a forest pathogen that causes damages to young pine seedlings (Pinus sylvestris). The fungus is dependent on two alternate hosts: aspen (Populus tremula) and pine to complete its lifecycle. Previous studies show a distinct correlation between hard fire severity and a vigorous regeneration of deciduous aspen seedlings. Studies of pine twisting rust show that the pathogen is strongly related to the presence and density of aspen at the stand level. No study so far has focused on how pine twisting rust infect regenerating pine seedlings after a forest fire. The aim of this study was to explore if a possible correlation between fire severity and pine twisting rust exists and to examine if fire severity intensify infection indirectly through an increased presence or amount of aspen biomass. The study also examined if ungulate browsing has a negative or positive impact on the infection of pine twisting rust. The study was located at the fire field in Sala and the inventory was carried out in eleven stands in four geographically distinct areas. The forest fire of summer 2014 outside Sala is unique in Sweden for its size and degree of fire severity. The fire damaged 14 000 hectare of forest and caused a large variation in fire severity. Both before and after the fire there has been an active forestry. There have been observations of pine twisting rust in the pine regenerations and reports of large numbers of ungulates utilizing/within the area. All this makes the fire field in Sala well suited for studying the relationship between pine twisting rust, fire severity, asp density and ungulate browsing. This study shows that fire severity had neither a significant effect on the infection of pine twisting rust nor on the density of aspen. However, there was significant variation in the infection of pine twisting rust between different geographical areas, which was a result of differences in the amount of aspen. Areas with high presence of pine twisting rust had large amounts of aspen. Ungulate browsing showed neither a negative or positive effect on the amplitude of pine twisting rust. Today around 15 % of the pine regeneration on the fire field is infected by pine twisting rust. There is a large variation in the degree of infection of pine twisting rust between different geographical areas. Given that the pathogen can infect pine regenerations up to an age of 15 years there is an enhanced risk that the spread of the pathogen could increase in the future

Profitability analysis of machine investment in a timber terminal

Från det att lastbilstransporter för rundvirke togs upp i Skogsstyrelsens statistik under 1970-talet har det varit den dominerande transportmetoden i Sverige. I och med allt mer centraliserade industrier har transportavstånden mellan skog och industri ökat, det tillsammans med en ökad miljömedvetenhet och en politisk vilja att gå mot mer miljövänliga transporter kräver nya transportlösningar. En viktig del i strävan mot målet är ökad användning av järnvägstransport, i och med lägre miljöpåverkan - det är här terminaler kommer in i bilden. De största tveksamheterna som finns angående huruvida terminaler är rationella har med kostnadsbilden att göra. Detta gör att det blir intressant att undersöka kostnadsbilden hos en terminal och vilka investeringar i maskinparken som kan ge än effektivare omlastning och lagerhantering. Det finns en mängd olika framgångsfaktorer för att driva en biobränsleterminal. En av dessa är att man täcker behovet av maskinella resurser för den planerade verksamheten. I arbetet genomfördes en investeringskalkyl där det konstaterades att det skulle vara lönsamt för Terminalen i Bastuträsk AB att investera i en egen maskin för virkeshantering och sluta använda sig av en entreprenörtjänst. Av de undersökta maskinerna visade Sennebogen 830 de bästa resultaten och bytet ger ett kalkylerat nuvärde på mer än 18 000 000 kr. Störst påverkan på resultatet har virkesmängden som kan hanteras och huruvida det finns en tillräckligt stor efterfrågan på terminalens tjänster för att komma upp i ett högt maskinutnyttjande. Känslighetsanalyserna visade på att med de nuvarande förutsättningarna kommer investeringen med stor säkerhet att vara lönsam.From when the statistics about the roundwood transportation was collected in Skogsstyrelsen statistics in the 1970s, trucks have been the dominant method of transport in Sweden. With more centralized industries transport distances between forest and industry have increased. The increased environmental awareness and the political will to move toward more environmentally friendly transport requires new transport solutions. An important element in achieving the goal is to increase the use of railway transport which have a lower environmental impact – to manage this timber terminals have key role. The biggest doubts surrounding timber terminals are about the economics. This makes it interesting to examine the cost structure of a terminal and which investments in machinery that can provide more efficient transhipment and warehousing. One of the key factors is the need for mechanical resources. In the study a capital budget was made where it was stated that it would be profitable for Terminalen i Bastuträsk AB to invest in their own machine and stop using the services of a contractor. Of the investigated machines Sennebogen 830 showed the best results with the change giving a calculated present value of more than 18 000 000 SEK. The greatest impact on the result was the amount of timber that could be handled and whether there was sufficient demand for the terminals services in order to reach a high machine utilization. Sensitivity analyses showed that with the current conditions, the investment almost certainly would be profitable

A study comparing different thinning's from below effects on top height on spruce stands in southern Sweden

Idag gallras majoriteten av Sveriges skogsmarksareal med olika gallringsprogram. I denna studie jämfördes tre olika låggallringar (med varierande antal gallringar, gallringstyrkor och tidpunkt för gallring) med ogallrade bestånds påverkan på övre höjdutveckling i granbestånd i södra Sverige. Statistiska analyser av beståndsdata från SLU:s långtidsförsök (GG-försöken) genomfördes. Resultatet visade att en försenad första gallring gav en svag signifikant negativ påverkan på övre höjd. Övriga gallringsprogram hade ingen signifikant inverkan på beståndens höjdtillväxt. Tidigare studier inom området på både gran och andra typer av trädslag visar på liknande resultat vad gäller gallringsstyrkor. En negativ påverkan på höjdutvecklingen vid en sen gallring kan förklaras med trädens behov att utveckla stam och rötter vid en friställning varav tillväxt på höjden inte prioriteras.Today is the majority of the Swedish forestland are thinned with different thinning programs. This study compares three different thinning’s from below (with varying numbers of thinning’s and thinning intensity, stand age of first thinning) and stands without thinning effects on top height development on spruce stands in southern Sweden. Statistical analysis was made on stand data from SLU: s long time trials (GG-trials). The result indicated that late first thinning had a mild significant negative effect on top height compared to other thinning programs. Other thinning’s from below and stands without thinning showed no significant effect on top height. The result is supported to some extent with earlier studies in this field. Earlier surveys that explain why late first thinning’s have lower height development than stands without thinning cannot be found. The negative effect on height development from a late first thinning can be explained by the trees need to develop stem and roots after a thinning