Large Meteoroid Impact on the Moon on 17 March 2013

Since early 2006, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has observed over 300 impact flashes on the Moon, produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. On 17 March 2013 at 03:50:54.312 UTC, the brightest flash of an 8-year routine observing campaign was observed in two 0.35 m telescopes outfitted with Watec 902H2 Ultimate monochrome CCD cameras recording interleaved 30 fps video. Standard CCD photometric techniques, described in [1], were applied to the video after saturation correction, yielding a peak R magnitude of 3.0 +/- 0.4 in a 1/30 second video exposure. This corresponds to a luminous energy of 7.1 10(exp 6) J. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used to georeference the lunar impact imagery and yielded a crater location at 20.60 +/- 0.17deg N, 23.92 +/- 0.30deg W. The camera onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO), a NASA spacecraft mapping the Moon from lunar orbit, discovered the fresh crater associated with this impact by comparing post-impact images from 28 July 2013 to pre-impact images on 12 Feb 2012. The images show fresh, bright ejecta around an 18 m diameter circular crater, with a 15 m inner diameter measured from the level of pre-existing terrain, at 20.7135deg N, 24.3302deg W. An asymmetrical ray pattern with both high and low reflectance ejecta zones extends 1-2 km beyond the crater, and a series of mostly low reflectance splotches can be seen within 30 km of the crater - likely due to secondary impacts [2]. The meteoroid impactor responsible for this event may have been part of a stream of large particles encountered by the Earth/Moon associated with the Virginid Meteor Complex, as evidenced by a cluster of 5 fireballs seen in Earth's atmosphere on the same night by the NASA All Sky Fireball Network [3] and the Southern Ontario Meteor Network [4]. Assuming a velocity-dependent luminous efficiency (ratio of luminous energy to kinetic energy) from [5] and an impact velocity of 25.6 km/s derived from fireball measurements, the impactor kinetic energy was 5.4 10(exp 9) J and the impactor mass was 16 kg. Assuming an impact angle of 56deg from horizontal (based on fireball orbit measurements), a regolith density of 1500 kg/m(exp 3), and impactor density between 1800 and 3000 kg/m(exp 3), the impact crater diameter was estimated to be 8-18 m at the pre-impact surface and 10-23 m rim-to-rim using the Holsapple [6] and Gault [7] models, a result consistent with the observed crater

Using Satellite Data in Weather Forecasting: I

The GOES Product Generation System (GPGS) is a set of computer codes and scripts that enable the assimilation of real-time Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data into regional-weather-forecasting mathematical models. The GPGS can be used to derive such geophysical parameters as land surface temperature, the amount of precipitable water, the degree of cloud cover, the surface albedo, and the amount of insolation from satellite measurements of radiant energy emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere. GPGS incorporates a priori information (initial guesses of thermodynamic parameters of the atmosphere) and radiometric measurements from the geostationary operational environmental satellites along with mathematical models of physical principles that govern the transfer of energy in the atmosphere. GPGS solves the radiative-transfer equation and provides the resulting data products in formats suitable for use by weather-forecasting computer programs. The data-assimilation capability afforded by GPGS offers the potential to improve local weather forecasts ranging from 3 hours to 2 days - especially with respect to temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and the probability of precipitation. The improvements afforded by GPGS could be of interest to news media, utility companies, and other organizations that utilize regional weather forecasts

Lunar Meteoroid Impact Observations and the Flux of Kilogram-sized Meteoroids

Lunar impact monitoring provides useful information about the flux of meteoroids in the tens of grams to kilograms size range. The large collecting area of the night side of the lunar disk, approximately 3.4x10(exp 6) sq km in our camera field-of-view, provides statistically significant counts of the meteoroids. Nearly 200 lunar impacts have been observed by our program in roughly 3.5 years. Photometric calibration of the flashes along with the luminous efficiency (determined using meteor showers1,2,3) and assumed velocities provide their sizes. The asymmetry in the flux on the evening and morning hemispheres of the Moon is compared with sporadic and shower sources to determine their most likely origin. The asymmetry between the two hemispheres seen in Figure 1 is due to the impact rate and not to observational bias. Comparison with other measurements of the large meteoroid fluxes is consistent with these measurements as shown in Figure 2. The flux of meteoroids in this size range has important implications for the near-Earth object population and for impact risk for lunar spacecraf

Large Meteoroid Impact on the Moon 17 March 2013

NASA's routine monitoring of lunar impact flashes has recorded nearly 300 impacts since 2006. On 17 March 2013 the brightest event to date was observed in two 0.35m telescopes at the Marshall Space Flight Center. With a peak red magnitude brighter than 4.3 and an impact flash visible for over 1 second, the impact kinetic energy was equivalent to nearly 5 tons of TNT. A possible association with a meteor shower observed in the Earth's atmosphere will be described. Corresponding crater dimensions and observability of the impact crater by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will also be discussed

The MSFC Solar Activity Future Estimation (MSAFE) Model

The MSAFE model provides forecasts for the solar indices SSN, F10.7, and Ap. These solar indices are used as inputs to many space environment models used in orbital spacecraft operations and space mission analysis. Forecasts from the MSAFE model are provided on the MSFC Natural Environments Branch's solar webpage and are updated as new monthly observations come available. The MSAFE prediction routine employs a statistical technique that calculates deviations of past solar cycles from the mean cycle and performs a regression analysis to predict the deviation from the mean cycle of the solar index at the next future time interval. The prediction algorithm is applied recursively to produce monthly smoothed solar index values for the remaining of the cycle. The forecasts are initiated for a given cycle after about 8 to 12 months of observations are collected. A forecast made at the beginning of cycle 24 using the MSAFE program captured the cycle fairly well with some difficulty in discerning the double peak that occurred at solar cycle maximum