The impact of world price instability on agricultural supply according to several macroeconomic factors

This paper aims at analyzing the effect of world price instability on the aggregate agricultural supply of developing countries and determining to what extent this effect depends on the macroeconomic environment. Producers of agricultural commodity-exporting countries are particularly vulnerable to the fluctuations of world prices : they are exposed to price shocks and their ability to cope with them is weak. But the effectiveness of risk coping strategies is conditional on the influence of macroeconomic factors. We test the impact of international price instability on the aggregate agricultural supply, taking account of some features of the national environment (infrastructure, inflation, and financial deepening). The analysis is based on a sample of 25 countries during the period 1961-2002. Results from panel data highlight a significant negative effect of international price instability on aggregate agricultural supply. Moreover, they show that high inflation, weak infrastructure and poorly developed financial system contribute to reinforce this effect.aggregate supply, price instability, inflation, infrastructure, financial deepening

Rupture et asymétrie de la transmission des prix agricoles internationaux

Les gouvernements des pays en développement et les intermédiaires commerciaux positionnés le long des filières agricoles d'exportation jouent un rôle déterminant dans la transmission des chocs de prix mondiaux aux producteurs. Les mécanismes d'intervention sur les prix peuvent en effet conduire à un affaiblissement de la transmission des variations de prix mondiaux aux producteurs,mais également à l'apparition d'une asymétrie dans la vitesse d'ajustement du prix payé au producteur aux variations du prix mondial, en particulier si le prix au producteur est maintenu durablement en dessous de sa valeur d'équilibre.Cet effet d'asymétrie peut également apparaître dans la transmission entre les prix dans les pays dépourvus de mécanismes de régulation des marchés internes mais où les intermédiaires commerciaux détiennent un pouvoir de marché. L'objet de ce chapitre est d'analyser l'évolution de la réponse de court terme et la symétrie de la vitesse d'ajustement du prix au producteur aux variations du prix mondial. L'analyse empirique est menée à partir de séries temporelles longues disponibles pour quatre pays exportateur de café (le Salvador, l'Inde, l'Ouganda et le Costa Rica). Les résultats montrent une rupture dans la relation de cointégration entre le prix mondial et le prix payé au producteur dans le cas du Salvador, de l'Inde et de l'Ouganda. En outre, la transmission de court terme apparaît plus forte après la date de rupture dans le cas du Salvador. Enfin,avant la date de rupture, la vitesse d'ajustement semble dépendre fortement de la nature du choc à l'origine du déséquilibre, puisque les prix à la production tendent à converger plus faiblement - voire pas du tout - vers leur valeur d'équilibre lorsqu'ils sont en dessous de cette valeur d'équilibre (cas de l'Inde,de l'Ouganda et du Costa Rica).

Le rôle du taux de change réel dans la transmission de l'instabilité des prix agricoles internationaux

This paper aims at analyzing the role of the real exchange rate in the transmission of world price instability to producers of agricultural commodity-exporting developing countries. The analysis relates to a sample of 51 developing countries over the 1968-2002 period. In those countries whose real exchange rate is supposed to be determined by world price movements, the instability of real prices measured in local currency is supposed to be lower than the instability of world real prices. However, in the great majority of countries, the instability of real prices in local currency is on the contrary stronger. This observation leads to analyse the nature of the relationship between the real exchange rate of these countries and the international real price of exported commodities. More precisely, we investigate whether this relationship can be asymmetric, which would explain a weak correlation between real exchange rate and world real prices. To test this hypothesis, we use an asymmetric cointegration approach. As it was expected, for many countries the results highlight a cointegration relationship between real effective exchange rate and world real prices when there is a rise in world prices, while the hypothesis of cointegration is rejected for almost all countries when there is a drop in world prices, which tends to corroborate the hypothesis of asymmetry.taux de change réel;instabilite des prix;cointégration asymétrique

How Macroeconomic Instability Lowers Child Survival

The reduction of child mortality is one of the most universally accepted millennium goals. However, a significant debate came out on the means of reaching it and on its realism with regard to the situation of most of the least developed countries. The recommendations made for the achievement of this are mainly medical ones. However, without underestimating the importance of these measures, in particular vaccinations, it seems increasingly obvious that the rate of reduction of child mortality is mainly determined by the evolution of macroeconomic environment. The influence of per capita income level on mortality is frequently underlined. But a given income growth does not have the same effect on child survival whether it is stable or unstable. Indeed, rises and falls of income probably have asymmetrical effects on mortality. The purpose of this analysis is precisely to show how macroeconomic instability influences the evolution of child mortality. The analysis is based on a panel sample of 97 developing countries over the period 1980-1999. The effect of exogenous shocks is first examined through a variable of income instability. The study of the relation is then deepened with "primary instabilities": instability of world agricultural commodity prices, instability of exports of goods and services and instability of agricultural production.child survival;macroeconomic instability

Le rôle du taux de change réel dans la transmission de l'instabilité des prix agricoles internationaux

This paper aims at analyzing the role of the real exchange rate in the transmission of world price instability to producers of agricultural commodity-exporting developing countries. The analysis relates to a sample of 51 developing countries over the 1968-2002 period. In those countries whose real exchange rate is supposed to be determined by world price movements, the instability of real prices measured in local currency is supposed to be lower than the instability of world real prices. However, in the great majority of countries, the instability of real prices in local currency is on the contrary stronger. This observation leads to analyse the nature of the relationship between the real exchange rate of these countries and the international real price of exported commodities. More precisely, we investigate whether this relationship can be asymmetric, which would explain a weak correlation between real exchange rate and world real prices. To test this hypothesis, we use an asymmetric cointegration approach. As it was expected, for many countries the results highlight a cointegration relationship between real effective exchange rate and world real prices when there is a rise in world prices, while the hypothesis of cointegration is rejected for almost all countries when there is a drop in world prices, which tends to corroborate the hypothesis of asymmetry.taux de change réel, instabilite des prix, cointégration asymétrique

How Macroeconomic Instability Lowers Child Survival

The reduction of child mortality is one of the most universally accepted Millennium Goals. However, there is a significant debate on the means of reaching it and its realism with regard to the situation in most of the least developed countries. The recommendations made for the achievement of this goal are mainly medical ones. However, without underestimating the importance of these measures, in particular vaccinations, it seems increasingly obvious that the rate of reduction of child mortality is mainly determined by the evolution of macroeconomic environment. The influence of per capita income level on mortality is frequently underlined. But a given income growth does not have the same effect on child survival if it is stable or unstable. Indeed, rises and falls of income probably have asymmetrical effects on mortality. The purpose of this analysis is precisely to show how macroeconomic instability influences the evolution of child mortality. The analysis is based on a panel sample of 97 developing countries over the period 1980-1999. The effect of exogenous shocks is first examined through a variable of income instability. The study of the relation is then deepened with ?primary instabilities?: instability of world agricultural commodity prices, instability of exports of goods and services and instability of agricultural production.MDGs, mortality, children, health

How Macroeconomic Instability Lowers Child Survival

The reduction of child mortality is one of the most universally accepted millennium goals. However, a significant debate came out on the means of reaching it and on its realism with regard to the situation of most of the least developed countries. The recommendations made for the achievement of this are mainly medical ones. However, without underestimating the importance of these measures, in particular vaccinations, it seems increasingly obvious that the rate of reduction of child mortality is mainly determined by the evolution of macroeconomic environment. The influence of per capita income level on mortality is frequently underlined. But a given income growth does not have the same effect on child survival whether it is stable or unstable. Indeed, rises and falls of income probably have asymmetrical effects on mortality. The purpose of this analysis is precisely to show how macroeconomic instability influences the evolution of child mortality. The analysis is based on a panel sample of 97 developing countries over the period 1980-1999. The effect of exogenous shocks is first examined through a variable of income instability. The study of the relation is then deepened with "primary instabilities": instability of world agricultural commodity prices, instability of exports of goods and services and instability of agricultural production.child survival, macroeconomic instability

Le rôle du taux de change réel dans la transmission de l'instabilité des prix agricoles internationaux

This paper aims at analyzing the role of the real exchange rate in the transmission of world price instability to producers of agricultural commodity-exporting developing countries. The analysis relates to a sample of 51 developing countries over the 1968-2002 period. In those countries whose real exchange rate is supposed to be determined by world price movements, the instability of real prices measured in local currency is supposed to be lower than the instability of world real prices. However, in the great majority of countries, the instability of real prices in local currency is on the contrary stronger. This observation leads to analyse the nature of the relationship between the real exchange rate of these countries and the international real price of exported commodities. More precisely, we investigate whether this relationship can be asymmetric, which would explain a weak correlation between real exchange rate and world real prices. To test this hypothesis, we use an asymmetric cointegration approach. As it was expected, for many countries the results highlight a cointegration relationship between real effective exchange rate and world real prices when there is a rise in world prices, while the hypothesis of cointegration is rejected for almost all countries when there is a drop in world prices, which tends to corroborate the hypothesis of asymmetry

How Macroeconomic Instability Lowers Child Survival

The reduction of child mortality is one of the most universally accepted millennium goals. However, a significant debate came out on the means of reaching it and on its realism with regard to the situation of most of the least developed countries. The recommendations made for the achievement of this are mainly medical ones. However, without underestimating the importance of these measures, in particular vaccinations, it seems increasingly obvious that the rate of reduction of child mortality is mainly determined by the evolution of macroeconomic environment. The influence of per capita income level on mortality is frequently underlined. But a given income growth does not have the same effect on child survival whether it is stable or unstable. Indeed, rises and falls of income probably have asymmetrical effects on mortality. The purpose of this analysis is precisely to show how macroeconomic instability influences the evolution of child mortality. The analysis is based on a panel sample of 97 developing countries over the period 1980-1999. The effect of exogenous shocks is first examined through a variable of income instability. The study of the relation is then deepened with "primary instabilities": instability of world agricultural commodity prices, instability of exports of goods and services and instability of agricultural production