11,504 research outputs found

    Bias correction and confidence intervals following sequential tests

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    An important statistical inference problem in sequential analysis is the construction of confidence intervals following sequential tests, to which Michael Woodroofe has made fundamental contributions. This paper reviews Woodroofe's method and other approaches in the literature. In particular it shows how a bias-corrected pivot originally introduced by Woodroofe can be used as an improved root for sequential bootstrap confidence intervals.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000000590 in the IMS Lecture Notes--Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

    Non-Trivial Oblique Spin Equilibria of Super-Earths in Multi-planetary Systems

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    Many Sun-like stars are observed to host close-in super-Earths (SEs) as part of a multi-planetary system. In such a system, the spin of the SE evolves due to spin-orbit resonances and tidal dissipation. In the absence of tides, the planet's obliquity can evolve chaotically to large values. However, for close-in SEs, tidal dissipation is significant and suppresses the chaos, instead driving the spin into various steady states. We find that the attracting steady states of the SE's spin are more numerous than previously thought, due to the discovery of a new class of "mixed-mode" high-obliquity equilibria. These new equilibria arise due to subharmonic responses of the parametrically-driven planetary spin, an unusual phenomenon that arises in nonlinear systems. Many SEs should therefore have significant obliquities, with potentially large impacts on the physical conditions of their surfaces and atmospheres.Comment: 25 pages, 18 figure

    Domestic bureaucratic politics and Chinese foreign policy

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    One of the outstanding features of China’s domestic politics is the prominence of the bureaucracy in the policy-making process. Arguably, bureaucracy is the next major player in the policy-making process in China after the top leaders. In this article, the three following aspects of the role of bureaucracy in the Chinese foreign policy-making process are examined: (1) the structure of the bureaucracy, especially the main agencies of the bureaucracy involved in foreign policy making; (2) the respective responsibilities of these agencies and their roles in the process; and (3) inter-agency coordination including the resolution of conflict among them. It observes that while the Ministry of Foreign Affairs plays a key role in the process, other ministries and bureaucratic agencies have significant and even growing input in an increasing number of functional areas, such as trade, finance, economy, climate change, soft power and military affairs. In addition, coordination among these agencies has become a key in the policy-making process

    Assessment for Effective Lecture on Knowledge Retention towards Student Learning with Web-based Educational Tools

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    This study assessed the effective lecture for knowledge retention towards student learning. The survey involved 42 university students (fourth year in Chemical Engineering and Sustainability Energy Department, UNIMAS) where all of them were tested before and after the class through a 10 questions quiz as assessment. From this quiz assessment, only 50% (21 students) of the students managed to answer at least 7 questions correctly before the lecture was delivered. After delivering lecture, 100% (42 students) of the students managed to answer 10 questions correctly. However, after four weeks, only 90% (38 students) of the students managed to score 10 questions correctly due to short knowledge retention

    The Announcement Effect of Monetary Policy on the Corporate Bond Markets

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    This study investigates the impact of the central bank’s monetary policy announcements on the perceptions of yield spread in corporate bond markets under the event of extreme events. These results highlight that the coronavirus pandemic has caused a market panic in the global economy. This caused investors to withdraw their money from bond markets, which caused a liquidity crisis in bond markets. The Fed announcements caused statistically significant tightening on US and global investment grades and high-yield corporate bond spreads. The Euro investment grade and high-yield corporate bond spread narrowed when the Fed took additional actions to provide more funds and expanded the buying scope to support market liquidity. These results suggest that forward guidance that emphasizes the Fed’s monetary policy causes stronger information effects
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