Maternal Risk Factors for Small-for-Gestational-Age Newborns in Mexico: Analysis of a Nationwide Representative Cohort

Background: Small for gestational age (SGA) is a key contributor to premature deaths and long-term complications in life. Improved characterization of maternal risk factors associated with this adverse outcome is needed to inform the development of interventions, track progress, and reduce the disease burden. This study aimed to identify socioeconomic, demographic, and clinical factors associated with SGA in Mexico. Methods: We analyzed administrative data from 1,841,477 singletons collected by the National Information Subsystem of Livebirths during 2017. Small-for-gestational-age was defined as being 12 years (aOR 0.63; 95% CI:0.6,0.66) compared with those without education. SGA was particularly likely to occur among primiparous (aOR 1.42; 95% CI: 1.39, 1.43), mothers living in very high deprivation localities (aOR 1.39; 95% CI: 1.36, 1.43), young (aOR 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06), advanced age (aOR 1.14; 95% CI 1.09, 1.19), and mothers living in areas above 2,000 m (aOR 1.69; 95% CI: 1.65, 1.73). Antenatal care was associated with a reduced risk of SGA by 30% (aOR 0.7; 95% CI:0.67,0.73), 23% (OR 0.77; 95% CI:0.74,0.8), and 21% (OR 0.79; 95% CI:0.75,0.83), compared with those mothers who never received antenatal care, when women visited the clinic at the first, second and third trimester, respectively. Conclusion: Almost 7% of live births were found to be SGA. Parity, maternal age, education, place of residence, and social deprivation were significantly associated with this outcome. Antenatal care was protective. These findings imply that interventions focusing on early and adequate contact with health care facilities, reproductive health counseling, and maternal education should reduce SGA in Mexico

National data linkage assessment of live births and deaths in Mexico: Estimating under-five mortality rate ratios for vulnerable newborns and trends from 2008 to 2019

BACKGROUND: Linked datasets that enable longitudinal assessments are scarce in low and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the linkage of administrative databases of live births and under-five child deaths to explore mortality and trends for preterm, small (SGA) and large for gestational age (LGA) in Mexico. METHODS: We linked individual-level datasets collected by National statistics from 2008 to 2019. Linkage was performed based on agreement on birthday, sex, residential address. We used the Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health software to identify the best candidate pairs based on similarity. Accuracy was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We evaluated completeness by comparing the number of linked records with reported deaths. We described the percentage of linked records by baseline characteristics to identify potential bias. Using the linked dataset, we calculated mortality rate ratios (RR) in neonatal, infants, and children under-five according to gestational age, birthweight, and size. RESULTS: For the period 2008-2019, a total of 24,955,172 live births and 321,165 under-five deaths were available for linkage. We excluded 1,539,046 records (6.2%) with missing or implausible values. We succesfully linked 231,765 deaths (72.2%: range 57.1% in 2009 and 84.3% in 2011). The rate of neonatal mortality was higher for preterm compared with term (RR 3.83, 95% confidence interval, [CI] 3.78, 3.88) and for SGA compared with appropriate for gestational age (AGA) (RR 1.22 95% CI, 1.19, 1.24). Births at <28 weeks had the highest mortality (RR 35.92, 95% CI, 34.97, 36.88). LGA had no additional risk vs AGA among children under five (RR 0.92, 95% CI, 0.90, 0.93). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the utility of linked data to understand neonatal vulnerability and child mortality. We created a linked dataset that would be a valuable resource for future population-based research

Neonatal mortality risk for vulnerable newborn types in 15 countries using 125.5 million nationwide birth outcome records, 2000-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To compare neonatal mortality associated with six novel vulnerable newborn types in 125.5 million live births across 15 countries, 2000-2020. DESIGN: Population-based, multi-country study. SETTING: National data systems in 15 middle- and high-income countries. METHODS: We used individual-level data sets identified for the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. We examined the contribution to neonatal mortality of six newborn types combining gestational age (preterm [PT] versus term [T]) and size-for-gestational age (small [SGA], 90th centile) according to INTERGROWTH-21st newborn standards. Newborn babies with PT or SGA were defined as small and T + LGA was considered as large. We calculated risk ratios (RRs) and population attributable risks (PAR%) for the six newborn types. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality of six newborn types. RESULTS: Of 125.5 million live births analysed, risk ratios were highest among PT + SGA (median 67.2, interquartile range [IQR] 45.6-73.9), PT + AGA (median 34.3, IQR 23.9-37.5) and PT + LGA (median 28.3, IQR 18.4-32.3). At the population level, PT + AGA was the greatest contributor to newborn mortality (median PAR% 53.7, IQR 44.5-54.9). Mortality risk was highest among newborns born before 28 weeks (median RR 279.5, IQR 234.2-388.5) compared with babies born between 37 and 42 completed weeks or with a birthweight less than 1000 g (median RR 282.8, IQR 194.7-342.8) compared with those between 2500 g and 4000 g as a reference group. CONCLUSION: Preterm newborn types were the most vulnerable, and associated with the highest mortality, particularly with co-existence of preterm and SGA. As PT + AGA is more prevalent, it is responsible for the greatest burden of neonatal deaths at population level

Risk of mortality for small newborns in Brazil, 2011-2018: A national birth cohort study of 17.6 million records from routine register-based linked data.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth (25 times higher for LBW (HR=25.8; (95% CI:25.5-26.1) compared to normal birth weight (NBW). 18% of all live births were included in one of the small vulnerable newborn phenotypes. Of those 8.2% were term-SGA (4.7%NBW, 3.5%LBW), 0.6% were term-AGA-LBW, 8.3% preterm-AGA (3.8%NBW, 4.5%LBW) and 1.0% preterm-SGA-LBW. Compared to term-AGA-NBW, the highest mortality risk was for preterm-LBW phenotypes (HR=36.2(95%CI 35.6-36.8) preterm-AGA-LBW, HR=62.0(95%CI 60.8-63.2) preterm-SGA-LBW). The increased mortality risk associated with vulnerable newborn phenotypes was highest in the first month of life, with attenuated but continued high risk in the post-neonatal period and 1-4 years of age. INTERPRETATION: Our findings support the value of using more detailed phenotypes to identify those at highest risk. More granular data can inform care at the individual level, advance research, especially for prevention, and accelerate progress towards global targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context : An international participatory approach

Funding RA is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1193472). LW is funded by the Li Ka Shing Foundation. CF is funded by grant #2017/26770-8, São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). The CoMo Consortium has support from the Oxford University COVID-19 Research Response Fund (ref: 0009280). Scientific writing assistance and editorial support was provided by Adam Bodley, according to Good Publication Practice guidelines.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Potential health and economic impacts of dexamethasone treatment for patients with COVID-19

Acknowledgements We thank all members of the COVID-19 International Modelling Consortium and their collaborative partners. This work was supported by the COVID-19 Research Response Fund, managed by the Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford. L.J.W. is supported by the Li Ka Shing Foundation. R.A. acknowledges funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1193472).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Vulnerable newborn types: Analysis of population-based registries for 165 million births in 23 countries, 2000-2021.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the prevalence of novel newborn types among 165 million live births in 23 countries from 2000 to 2021. DESIGN: Population-based, multi-country analysis. SETTING: National data systems in 23 middle- and high-income countries. POPULATION: Liveborn infants. METHODS: Country teams with high-quality data were invited to be part of the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. We classified live births by six newborn types based on gestational age information (preterm 90th centile) for gestational age, according to INTERGROWTH-21st standards. We considered small newborn types of any combination of preterm or SGA, and term + LGA was considered large. Time trends were analysed using 3-year moving averages for small and large types. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of six newborn types. RESULTS: We analysed 165 017 419 live births and the median prevalence of small types was 11.7% - highest in Malaysia (26%) and Qatar (15.7%). Overall, 18.1% of newborns were large (term + LGA) and was highest in Estonia 28.8% and Denmark 25.9%. Time trends of small and large infants were relatively stable in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of newborn types varies across the 23 middle- and high-income countries. Small newborn types were highest in west Asian countries and large types were highest in Europe. To better understand the global patterns of these novel newborn types, more information is needed, especially from low- and middle-income countries

Stillbirths: Contribution of preterm birth and size-for-gestational age for 125.4 million total births from nationwide records in 13 countries, 2000–2020

Objective: To examine the contribution of preterm birth and size-for-gestational age in stillbirths using six ‘newborn types’. Design: Population-based multi-country analyses. Setting: Births collected through routine data systems in 13 countries. Sample: 125 419 255 total births from 22+0 to 44+6 weeks’ gestation identified from 2000 to 2020. Methods: We included 635 107 stillbirths from 22+0 weeks’ gestation from 13 countries. We classified all births, including stillbirths, into six ‘newborn types’ based on gestational age information (preterm, PT, 90th centile) for gestational age, according to the international newborn size for gestational age and sex INTERGROWTH-21st standards. Main outcome measures: Distribution of stillbirths, stillbirth rates and rate ratios according to six newborn types. Results: 635 107 (0.5%) of the 125 419 255 total births resulted in stillbirth after 22+0 weeks. Most stillbirths (74.3%) were preterm. Around 21.2% were SGA types (PT + SGA [16.2%], PT + AGA [48.3%], T + SGA [5.0%]) and 14.1% were LGA types (PT + LGA [9.9%], T + LGA [4.2%]). The median rate ratio (RR) for stillbirth was highest in PT + SGA babies (RR 81.1, interquartile range [IQR], 68.8–118.8) followed by PT + AGA (RR 25.0, IQR, 20.0–34.3), PT + LGA (RR 25.9, IQR, 13.8–28.7) and T + SGA (RR 5.6, IQR, 5.1–6.0) compared with T + AGA. Stillbirth rate ratios were similar for T + LGA versus T + AGA (RR 0.7, IQR, 0.7–1.1). At the population level, 25% of stillbirths were attributable to small-for-gestational-age. Conclusions: In these high-quality data from high/middle income countries, almost three-quarters of stillbirths were born preterm and a fifth small-for-gestational age, with the highest stillbirth rates associated with the coexistence of preterm and SGA. Further analyses are needed to better understand patterns of gestation-specific risk in these populations, as well as patterns in lower-income contexts, especially those with higher rates of intrapartum stillbirth and SGA.</p

Data for: "Neonatal mortality risk for vulnerable newborn types in 15 countries using 125.5 million nationwide birth outcome records, 2000–2020"

Data collected as part of a multi-country, population-based study to compare neonatal mortality risks by birthweight categories, gestational age, and newborn types