Learning Mazes with Aliasing States: An LCS Algorithm with Associative Perception

Learning classifier systems (LCSs) belong to a class of algorithms based on the principle of self-organization and have frequently been applied to the task of solving mazes, an important type of reinforcement learning (RL) problem. Maze problems represent a simplified virtual model of real environments that can be used for developing core algorithms of many real-world applications related to the problem of navigation. However, the best achievements of LCSs in maze problems are still mostly bounded to non-aliasing environments, while LCS complexity seems to obstruct a proper analysis of the reasons of failure. We construct a new LCS agent that has a simpler and more transparent performance mechanism, but that can still solve mazes better than existing algorithms. We use the structure of a predictive LCS model, strip out the evolutionary mechanism, simplify the reinforcement learning procedure and equip the agent with the ability of associative perception, adopted from psychology. To improve our understanding of the nature and structure of maze environments, we analyze mazes used in research for the last two decades, introduce a set of maze complexity characteristics, and develop a set of new maze environments. We then run our new LCS with associative perception through the old and new aliasing mazes, which represent partially observable Markov decision problems (POMDP) and demonstrate that it performs at least as well as, and in some cases better than, other published systems

Ct threshold values, a proxy for viral load in community SARS-CoV-2 cases, demonstrate wide variation across populations and over time

Background: Information on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load). Methods: We included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression. Results: Of 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9–32.8, 14–56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative. Conclusions: Marked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator. Funding: Department of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust

Monitoring populations at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community using population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly evolving, with emerging variants and fluctuating control policies. Real-time population screening and identification of groups in whom positivity is highest could help monitor spread and inform public health messaging and strategy. METHODS: To develop a real-time screening process, we included results from nose and throat swabs and questionnaires taken 19 July 2020-17 July 2021 in the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey. Fortnightly, associations between SARS-CoV-2 positivity and 60 demographic and behavioural characteristics were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders, considering multiple testing, collinearity, and reverse causality. FINDINGS: Of 4,091,537 RT-PCR results from 482,677 individuals, 29,903 (0·73%) were positive. As positivity rose September-November 2020, rates were independently higher in younger ages, and those living in Northern England, major urban conurbations, more deprived areas, and larger households. Rates were also higher in those returning from abroad, and working in healthcare or outside of home. When positivity peaked December 2020-January 2021 (Alpha), high positivity shifted to southern geographical regions. With national vaccine roll-out from December 2020, positivity reduced in vaccinated individuals. Associations attenuated as rates decreased between February-May 2021. Rising positivity rates in June-July 2021 (Delta) were independently higher in younger, male, and unvaccinated groups. Few factors were consistently associated with positivity. 25/45 (56%) confirmed associations would have been detected later using 28-day rather than 14-day periods. INTERPRETATION: Population-level demographic and behavioural surveillance can be a valuable tool in identifying the varying characteristics driving current SARS-CoV-2 positivity, allowing monitoring to inform public health policy. FUNDING: Department of Health and Social Care (UK), Welsh Government, Department of Health (on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government), Scottish Government, National Institute for Health Research

Effect of Delta variant on viral burden and vaccine effectiveness against new SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK

The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines against new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections requires continuous re-evaluation, given the increasingly dominant B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. In this study, we investigated the effectiveness of these vaccines in a large, community-based survey of randomly selected households across the United Kingdom. We found that the effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against infections (new polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive cases) with symptoms or high viral burden is reduced with the B.1.617.2 variant (absolute difference of 10–13% for BNT162b2 and 16% for ChAdOx1) compared to the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. The effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection. The dynamics of immunity after second doses differed significantly between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, with greater initial effectiveness against new PCR-positive cases but faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection with BNT162b2. There was no evidence that effectiveness varied by dosing interval, but protection was higher in vaccinated individuals after a prior infection and in younger adults. With B.1.617.2, infections occurring after two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden as those in unvaccinated individuals. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination still reduces new infections, but effectiveness and attenuation of peak viral burden are reduced with B.1.617.2

On the problem of the justification of river rights

This article aims to work out the social conditions that determine whether the communication of river rights finds success in society. Employing the context of hydropower development in the Mekong region, the article finds that an essentialist strategy which claims that river rights have unlimited ‘moral’ validity regardless of any of the decision consequences is unlikely to succeed. Instead, it is proposed that moral conflicts over river rights may ultimately only be resolvable ‘unmorally’, that is, by procedural legitimacy – and this is best captured by employing a methodological framework composed of thematic, social and temporal dimension

The influence of systemic inflammation, dietary intake and stage of disease on rate of weight loss in patients with gastro-oesophageal cancer

Although weight loss is often a dominant symptom in patients with upper gastrointestinal malignancy, there is a lack of objective evidence describing changes in nutritional status and potential associations between weight loss, food intake, markers of systemic inflammation and stage of disease in such patients. Two hundred and twenty patients diagnosed with gastric/oesophageal cancer were studied. Patients underwent nutritional assessment consisting of calculation of body mass index, measurement of weight loss, dysphagia scoring and estimation of dietary intake. Serum acute-phase protein concentrations were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In all, 182 (83%) patients had lost weight at diagnosis (median loss, 7% body weight). Weight loss was associated with poor performance status, advanced disease stage, dysphagia, reduced dietary intake and elevated serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations. Multiple regression identified dietary intake (estimate of effect, 38%), serum CRP concentrations (estimate of effect, 34%) and stage of disease (estimate of effect, 28%) as independent variables in determining degree of weight loss. Mechanisms other than reduced dietary intake or mechanical obstruction by the tumour appear to be involved in the nutritional decline in patients with gastro-oesophageal malignancy. Recognition that systemic inflammation plays a role in nutritional depletion may inform the development of appropriate therapeutic strategies to ameliorate weight loss, making patients more tolerant of cancer-modifying treatments such as chemotherapy

First Dark Matter Search Results from the LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) Experiment

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment is a dark matter detector centered on a dual-phase xenon time projection chamber operating at the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota, USA. This Letter reports results from LZ's first search for Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs) with an exposure of 60 live days using a fiducial mass of 5.5 t. A profile-likelihood ratio analysis shows the data to be consistent with a background-only hypothesis, setting new limits on spin-independent WIMP-nucleon, spin-dependent WIMP-neutron, and spin-dependent WIMP-proton cross-sections for WIMP masses above 9 GeV/c$^2$. The most stringent limit is set at 30 GeV/c$^2$, excluding cross sections above 5.9$\times 10^{-48}$ cm$^2$ at the 90\% confidence level.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures. See https://tinyurl.com/LZDataReleaseRun1 for a data release related to this pape