Population Challenges for Bangladesh in the Coming Decades

Bangladesh currently has a population approaching 150 million and will add another 100 million before stabilizing, unless fertility can soon drop below replacement level. This level of fertility decline will require a change in marriage patterns, which have been minimal so far, even with increasing female schooling. It would also benefit from a long-awaited shift to long-term contraception. In addition to the consequence of huge population size, the density of population is already five times that of any other ‘mega’ country (>100 million), a very challenging situation for an agricultural society. Most of the future growth will be urban, increasingly in slums. Numbers of young people will not increase, but numbers of older people will increase 10-fold this century, creating a large burden on the health system, especially for chronic illnesses. High density of population means that agricultural land is virtually saturated, with very limited capacity to expand food production. Climate change may have dramatic impacts on agriculture, through flooding and drought resulting from weather changes and geopolitical influences on transborder rivers. Rising sea-levels and consequent salinity will affect crops and require shifts to alternative land use. Serious long-term planning is needed for meeting the growing needs of the population, both for distribution and consumption

The Effect of Maternal Tetanus Immunization on Children’s Schooling Attainment in Matlab, Bangladesh: Follow-up of a Randomized Trial

We investigate the effects of ante-natal maternal vaccination against tetanus on the schooling attained by children in Bangladesh. Maternal vaccination prevents the child from acquiring tetanus at birth through blood infection and substantially reduces infant mortality and may prevent impairment in children who would otherwise acquire tetanus but survive. We follow up on a 1974 randomized trial of maternal tetanus toxoid, looking at outcomes for children born in the period 1975-1979. We find significant schooling gains from maternal tetanus vaccination for children whose parents had no schooling, showing a large impact on a small number of children.Vaccination, tetanus, schooling, education, Bangladesh

Spatio-temporal patterns of under-five mortality in Matlab HDSS in rural Bangladesh

Background: Knowledge of spatial and temporal distributions of mortality and morbidity is important to prioritise areas for adjusting the public health system where people need services most. A Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) plays an important role where accurate national vital events are not available in identifying areas and periods with excess mortality risks. Methods: The HDSS in Matlab, a rural area of Bangladesh, provided data on yearly number of deaths and children aged below 5 years for each of 90 villages during 1998–2007, along with village location points, longitudes and latitudes. Kulldorff's space–time scan statistic was used to identify villages and periods that experienced high mortality risks in the HDSS area with a statistical significance of p<0.001. Logistic regression was conducted to examine if village-level education and economic status explained village-level mortality risks. Results: There were 3,434 deaths among children aged below 5 years in the HDSS area during 1998–2007 with an average yearly rate of 13 deaths per 1,000 under-five child-years. The mortality rate showed a declining trend with high concentration in 1998–2002, but not in 2003–2007. Two clusters of villages had significantly higher mortality risks in 1998–2002, but not later, and the mortality risks in the high-risk clusters reduced little, but remained significant after controlling for adult education and economic status at village level. Conclusions: Spatial clustering of childhood mortality observed during 1998–2002 had disappeared in subsequent years with a decline in mortality rates. Space–time scanning helps identify high-risk areas and periods to enhance public health actions

Causes of Neonatal Deaths in a Rural Subdistrict of Bangladesh: Implications for Intervention

The study assessed the timing and causes of neonatal deaths in a rural area of Bangladesh. A population-based demographic surveillance system, run by the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, recorded livebirths and neonatal deaths during 2003-2004 among a population of 224,000 living in Matlab, a rural subdistrict of eastern Bangladesh. Deaths were investigated using the INDEPTH/World Health Organization verbal autopsy. Three physicians independently reviewed data from verbal autopsy interview to assign the cause of death. There were 11,291 livebirths and 365 neonatal deaths during the two-year period. The neonatal mortality rate was 32.3 per 1,000 livebirths. Thirty-seven percent of the neonatal deaths occurred within 24 hours, 76% within 0-3 days, 84% within 0-7 days, and the remaining 16% within 8-28 days. Birth asphyxia (45%), prematurity/low birthweight (15%), sepsis/meningitis (12%), respiratory distress syndrome (7%), and pneumonia (6%) were the major direct causes of death. Birth asphyxia (52.8%) was the single largest category of cause of death in the early neonatal period while meningitis/sepsis (48.3%) was the single largest category in the late neonatal period. The high proportion of deaths during the early neonatal period and the far-higher proportion of neonatal deaths caused by birth asphyxia compared to the global average (45% vs 23-29%) indicate the lack of skilled birth attendance and newborn care for the large majority of births that occur in the home in rural Bangladesh. Resuscitation of newborns and management of low-birthweight/premature babies need to be at the core of neonatal interventional packages in rural Bangladesh

Prevalence and Patterns of Multimorbidity among Elderly People in Rural Bangladesh: A Cross-sectional Study

Data on multimorbidity among the elderly people in Bangladesh are lacking. This paper reports the prevalence and distribution patterns of multimorbidity among the elderly people in rural Bangladesh. This cross-sectional study was conducted among persons aged ≥60 years in Matlab, Bangladesh. Information on their demographics and literacy was collected through interview in the home. Information about their assets was obtained from a surveillance database. Physicians conducted clinical examinations at a local health centre. Two physicians diagnosed medical conditions, and two senior geriatricians then evaluated the same separately. Multimorbidity was defined as suffering from two or more of nine chronic medical conditions, such as arthritis, stroke, obesity, signs of thyroid hypofunction, obstructive pulmonary symptoms, symptoms of heart failure, impaired vision, hearing impairment, and high blood pressure. The overall prevalence of multimorbidity among the study population was 53.8%, and it was significantly higher among women, illiterates, persons who were single, and persons in the non-poorest quintile. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, female sex and belonging to the non-poorest quintile were independently associated with an increased odds ratio of multimorbidity. The results suggest that the prevalence of multimorbidity is high among the elderly people in rural Bangladesh. Women and the non-poorest group of the elderly people are more likely than men and the poorest people to be affected by multimorbidity. The study sheds new light on the need of primary care for the elderly people with multimorbidity in rural Bangladesh

Local Environmental Predictors of Cholera in Bangladesh and Vietnam

Environmental factors have been shown to be related to cholera and thus might prove useful for prediction. In Bangladesh and Vietnam, temporal cholera distributions are related to satellite-derived and in-situ environmental time series data in order to examine the relationships between cholera and the local environment. Ordered probit models examine associations in Bangladesh; probit models examine associations at 2 sites in Vietnam. Increases in ocean chlorophyll concentration are related to an increased magnitude of cholera in Bangladesh. Increases in sea surface temperature are most influential in Hue, Vietnam, whereas increases in river height have a significant role in Nha Trang, Vietnam. Cholera appearance and epidemic magnitude are related to the local environment. Local environmental parameters have consistent effects when cholera is regular and more prevalent in endemic settings, but in situations where cholera epidemics are rare there are differential environmental effects

Fifteen years of sector-wide approach (SWAp) in Bangladesh health sector: an assessment of progress

The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MOHFW) of the Government of Bangladesh embarked on a sector-wide approach (SWAp) modality for the health, nutrition and population (HNP) sector in 1998. This programmatic shift initiated a different set of planning disciplines and practices along with institutional changes in the MOHFW. Over the years, the SWAp modality has evolved in Bangladesh as the MOHFW has learnt from its implementation and refined the program design. This article explores the progress made, both in terms of achievement of health outcomes and systems strengthening results, since the implementation of the SWAp for Bangladesh’s health sector. Secondary analyses of survey data from 1993 to 2011 as well as a literature review of published and grey literature on health SWAp in Bangladesh was conducted for this assessment. Results of the assessment indicate that the MOHFW made substantial progress in health outcomes and health systems strengthening. SWAps facilitated the alignment of funding and technical support around national priorities, and improved the government’s role in program design as well as in implementation and development partner coordination. Notable systemic improvements have taken place in the country systems with regards to monitoring and evaluation, procurement and service provision, which have improved functionality of health facilities to provide essential care. Implementation of the SWAp has, therefore, contributed to an accelerated improvement in key health outcomes in Bangladesh over the last 15 years. The health SWAp in Bangladesh offers an example of a successful adaptation of such an approach in a complex administrative structure. Based on the lessons learned from SWAp implementation in Bangladesh, the MOHFW needs to play a stronger stewardship and regulatory role to reap the full benefits of a SWAp in its subsequent programming

Spatial patterns of fetal loss and infant death in an arsenic-affected area in Bangladesh

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Arsenic exposure in pregnancy is associated with adverse pregnancy outcome and infant mortality. Knowledge of the spatial characteristics of the outcomes and their possible link to arsenic exposure are important for planning effective mitigation activities. The aim of this study was to identify spatial and spatiotemporal clustering of fetal loss and infant death, and spatial relationships between high and low clusters of fetal loss and infant death rates and high and low clusters of arsenic concentrations in tube-well water used for drinking.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Pregnant women from Matlab, Bangladesh, who used tube-well water for drinking while pregnant between 1991 and 2000, were included in this study. In total 29,134 pregnancies were identified. A spatial scan test was used to identify unique non-random spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of fetal loss and infant death using a retrospective spatial and spatiotemporal permutation and Poisson probability models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two significant clusters of fetal loss and infant death were identified and these clusters remained stable after adjustment for covariates. One cluster of higher rates of fetal loss and infant death was in the vicinity of the Meghna River, and the other cluster of lower rates was in the center of Matlab. The average concentration of arsenic in the water differed between these clusters (319 μg/L for the high cluster and 174 μg/L for the low cluster). The spatial patterns of arsenic concentrations in tube-well water were found to be linked with the adverse pregnancy outcome clusters. In the spatiotemporal analysis, only one high fetal loss and infant death cluster was identified in the same high cluster area obtained from purely spatial analysis. However, the cluster was no longer significant after adjustment for the covariates.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The finding of this study suggests that given the geographical variation in tube-well water contamination, higher fetal loss and infant deaths were observed in the areas of higher arsenic concentrations in groundwater. This illustrates a possible link between arsenic contamination in tube-well water and adverse pregnancy outcome. Thus, these areas should be considered a priority in arsenic mitigation programs.</p

Causes of death of adults and elderly and healthcare - seeking before death in rural Bangladesh

The health system of a country needs to be adjusted to patterns of morbidity and mortality to mitigate the income-erosion consequences of prolonged ill-health and premature death of adults. Population-based data on mortality by cause are a key to modifying the health system. However, these data are scarce, particularly for rural populations in developing countries. The objectives of this study were to determine the burdens of health due to major causes of death obtained from verbal autopsy of adults and the elderly and their healthcare-seeking patterns before death in a well-defined rural population. There were 2, 397 deaths- 613 were among adults aged 15- 59 years and 1, 784 among the elderly aged 60 + years-during 2003- 2004 in the health and demographic surveil-lance area in Matlab, a rural area of Bangladesh. Trained interviewers interviewed close relatives of the deceased using a structured verbal-autopsy questionnaire to record signs and symptoms of dis-eases/conditions that led to death and medical consultations before death. Two physicians indepen-dently assigned the underlying causes of deaths with disagreements resolved by a third physician. The physicians were able to assign a specific cause in 91% of the cases. Rates and proportions were used for estimating the burden of diseases by cause. Of all deaths of adults and the elderly, commu-nicable diseases accounted for 18% and non-communicable diseases for 66%, with the proportion of non-communicable diseases increasing with age. Leading non-communicable diseases were diseases of the circulatory system ( 35%), neoplasms ( 11%), diseases of the respiratory system ( 10%), diseases of the digestive system ( 6%), and endocrine and metabolic disorders ( 6%), all of which accounted for 68% of deaths. Injury and other external causes accounted for another 5% of the deaths. During terminal illness, 31% of the adults and 25% of the elderly sought treatment from medical doc-tors, and 14% of the adults and 4% of the elderly died in healthcare facilities. The findings suggest that the health managers and policy-makers of Bangladesh should recognize the importance of pre-vention and management of chronic diseases and place it on the health agenda for rural people