Central banks and the stability of the international monetary regime

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Overvalued: Swedish Monetary Policy in the 1930s

This paper reconsiders the role of monetary policy in Sweden’s strong recovery from the Great Depression. The Riksbank in the 1930s is sometimes seen as an example of a central bank that was relatively innovative in terms of the conduct of monetary policy. To consider this analytically, we estimate a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using Bayesian methods. We find that the model captures the key dynamics of the period surprisingly well. Importantly, our findings suggest that Sweden avoided the worst excesses of the depression by conducting conservative rather than innovative monetary policy. We find that, by keeping the Swedish krona undervalued to replenish foreign reserves, Sweden’s exchange rate policy unintentionally contributed to the Swedish growth miracle of the 1930s, avoiding a major slump in 1932 and enabling the country to benefit quickly from the eventual recovery of world demand.

Still tied by golden fetters: the global response to the US recession of 1937-1938

The US recession of 1937-8 is one of the deepest on record. Yet it did not produce a global depression - quite unlike 1930. According to the standard view, this reflected an unfettering of central banking after the collapse of the international gold standard circa 1931. We challenge this view. While Germany and a couple of Central and Eastern European countries were sheltered by binding exchange controls, most countries were still constrained by their golden fetters, as our new exchange rate regime classification suggests. The underlying policy regime was surprisingly similar to that of the 1929-30 downturn. What mattered was a quick reversal in US policy in 1938 and, for many countries, a more plentiful stock of international reserve

Why the French said 'non': a new perspective on the Hoover Moratorium of June 1931

Why did the French government delay its endorsement of the Hoover Moratorium in the summer of 1931? Key policymakers were fully aware that their stance would exacerbate the German financial crisis, which ultimately dragged the European economy into the abyss. Most historical accounts identify the plan for an Austro-German customs union, which became known publicly in March 1931, as a major cause for the French ‘non’. We suggest a different chronology by showing that the French government was reluctant to help Germany as early as the fall of 1930 when, in the wake of the Nazi victory in the Reichstag elections, a currency crisis threatened to ruin the German monetary and financial system and bring down the government. We also argue that the reason for this French reluctance to extend financial help to Germany was the traumatic experience resulting from the evacuation of the Rhineland in June 1930. This chauvinistic outburst in Germany not only frightened the French public, but also made it clear to French politicians how the lack of military cooperation with the Anglo-Saxon powers had made France highly vulnerable on its Eastern front. After June 1930 a financial bargain with Germany became unrealistic, due to domestic opposition

The limits of internal devaluation: Switzerland during the Great Depression

During the Great Depression, countries endowed with abundant gold reserves were not able to leave the gold standard and devalue their currencies until the mid-1930s. Instead, they were forced to go down the road of internal devaluation. We analyze the policies of the Swiss authorities by estimating a New Keynesian small open economy model. Our results show that the long adherence to the gold standard and the failure of internal devaluation imposed considerable costs on the Swiss economy. Moreover, counterfactual exercises suggest that a timely devaluation would have led to an early recovery from the Great Depression

Overvalued: Swedish monetary policy in the 1930s

The article discusses Sweden's monetary policy in the 1930s, which has been hailed as the first and only example of successful price-level targeting. Our contribution is twofold. First, we argue that the crucial measure that immediately ended deflationary expectations and enabled a swift recovery was a strong and involuntary devaluation of the currency, not the adoption of a new monetary policy framework. Second, starting from the recent literature on monetary policy at the zero-lower bound, we conclude that Sweden's exchange rate policy is more relevant for the current discussion than its tentative experience with price-level targeting

Les droits disciplinaires des fonctions publiques : « unification », « harmonisation » ou « distanciation ». A propos de la loi du 26 avril 2016 relative à la déontologie et aux droits et obligations des fonctionnaires

The production of tt‾ , W+bb‾ and W+cc‾ is studied in the forward region of proton–proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.98±0.02 fb−1 . The W bosons are reconstructed in the decays W→ℓν , where ℓ denotes muon or electron, while the b and c quarks are reconstructed as jets. All measured cross-sections are in agreement with next-to-leading-order Standard Model predictions.The production of $t\overline{t}$, $W+b\overline{b}$ and $W+c\overline{c}$ is studied in the forward region of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.98 $\pm$ 0.02 \mbox{fb}^{-1}. The $W$ bosons are reconstructed in the decays $W\rightarrow\ell\nu$, where $\ell$ denotes muon or electron, while the $b$ and $c$ quarks are reconstructed as jets. All measured cross-sections are in agreement with next-to-leading-order Standard Model predictions

Measurement of the B0s→μ+μ− Branching Fraction and Effective Lifetime and Search for B0→μ+μ− Decays

A search for the rare decays Bs0→μ+μ- and B0→μ+μ- is performed at the LHCb experiment using data collected in pp collisions corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 4.4  fb-1. An excess of Bs0→μ+μ- decays is observed with a significance of 7.8 standard deviations, representing the first observation of this decay in a single experiment. The branching fraction is measured to be B(Bs0→μ+μ-)=(3.0±0.6-0.2+0.3)×10-9, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The first measurement of the Bs0→μ+μ- effective lifetime, τ(Bs0→μ+μ-)=2.04±0.44±0.05  ps, is reported. No significant excess of B0→μ+μ- decays is found, and a 95% confidence level upper limit, B(B0→μ+μ-)<3.4×10-10, is determined. All results are in agreement with the standard model expectations.A search for the rare decays $B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-$ and $B^0\to\mu^+\mu^-$ is performed at the LHCb experiment using data collected in $pp$ collisions corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 4.4 fb$^{-1}$. An excess of $B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-$ decays is observed with a significance of 7.8 standard deviations, representing the first observation of this decay in a single experiment. The branching fraction is measured to be ${\cal B}(B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-)=\left(3.0\pm 0.6^{+0.3}_{-0.2}\right)\times 10^{-9}$, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic. The first measurement of the $B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-$ effective lifetime, $\tau(B^0_s\to\mu^+\mu^-)=2.04\pm 0.44\pm 0.05$ ps, is reported. No significant excess of $B^0\to\mu^+\mu^-$ decays is found and a 95 % confidence level upper limit, ${\cal B}(B^0\to\mu^+\mu^-)<3.4\times 10^{-10}$, is determined. All results are in agreement with the Standard Model expectations

A study of CP violation in B-+/- -&gt; DK +/- and B-+/- -&gt; D pi(+/-) decays with D -&gt; (KSK +/-)-K-0 pi(-/+) final states

A first study of CP violation in the decay modes $B^\pm\to [K^0_{\rm S} K^\pm \pi^\mp]_D h^\pm$ and $B^\pm\to [K^0_{\rm S} K^\mp \pi^\pm]_D h^\pm$, where $h$ labels a $K$ or $\pi$ meson and $D$ labels a $D^0$ or $\overline{D}^0$ meson, is performed. The analysis uses the LHCb data set collected in $pp$ collisions, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb$^{-1}$. The analysis is sensitive to the CP-violating CKM phase $\gamma$ through seven observables: one charge asymmetry in each of the four modes and three ratios of the charge-integrated yields. The results are consistent with measurements of $\gamma$ using other decay modes

Measurement of the (eta c)(1S) production cross-section in proton-proton collisions via the decay (eta c)(1S) -&gt; p(p)over-bar

The production of the $\eta_c (1S)$ state in proton-proton collisions is probed via its decay to the $p \bar{p}$ final state with the LHCb detector, in the rapidity range $2.0 6.5$ GeV/c. The cross-section for prompt production of $\eta_c (1S)$ mesons relative to the prompt $J/\psi$ cross-section is measured, for the first time, to be $\sigma_{\eta_c (1S)}/\sigma_{J/\psi} = 1.74 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.28 \pm 0.18 _{B}$ at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.7 fb$^{-1}$, and $\sigma_{\eta_c (1S)}/\sigma_{J/\psi} = 1.60 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.25 \pm 0.17 _{B}$ at $\sqrt{s} = 8$ TeV using 2.0 fb$^{-1}$. The uncertainties quoted are, in order, statistical, systematic, and that on the ratio of branching fractions of the $\eta_c (1S)$ and $J/\psi$ decays to the $p \bar{p}$ final state. In addition, the inclusive branching fraction of $b$-hadron decays into $\eta_c (1S)$ mesons is measured, for the first time, to be $B ( b \rightarrow \eta_c X ) = (4.88 \pm 0.64 \pm 0.25 \pm 0.67 _{B}) \times 10^{-3}$, where the third uncertainty includes also the uncertainty on the $J/\psi$ inclusive branching fraction from $b$-hadron decays. The difference between the $J/\psi$ and $\eta_c (1S)$ meson masses is determined to be $114.7 \pm 1.5 \pm 0.1$ MeV/c$^2$.The production of the $\eta _c (1S)$ state in proton-proton collisions is probed via its decay to the $p\overline{p}$ final state with the LHCb detector, in the rapidity range $2.0 6.5 \mathrm{{\,GeV/}{ c}}$ . The cross-section for prompt production of $\eta _c (1S)$ mesons relative to the prompt ${{ J}}/{\psi }$ cross-section is measured, for the first time, to be $\sigma _{\eta _c (1S)}/\sigma _{{{{ J}}/{\psi }}} = 1.74\, \pm \,0.29\, \pm \, 0.28\, \pm \,0.18 _{{\mathcal{B}}}$ at a centre-of-mass energy ${\sqrt{s}} = 7 {~\mathrm{TeV}}$ using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.7 fb$^{-1}$ , and $\sigma _{\eta _c (1S)}/\sigma _{{{{ J}}/{\psi }}} = 1.60 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.25 \pm 0.17 _{{\mathcal{B}}}$ at ${\sqrt{s}} = 8 {~\mathrm{TeV}}$ using 2.0 fb$^{-1}$ . The uncertainties quoted are, in order, statistical, systematic, and that on the ratio of branching fractions of the $\eta _c (1S)$ and ${{ J}}/{\psi }$ decays to the $p\overline{p}$ final state. In addition, the inclusive branching fraction of ${b}$ -hadron decays into $\eta _c (1S)$ mesons is measured, for the first time, to be ${\mathcal{B}}( b {\rightarrow } \eta _c X ) = (4.88\, \pm \,0.64\, \pm \,0.29\, \pm \, 0.67 _{{\mathcal{B}}}) \times 10^{-3}$ , where the third uncertainty includes also the uncertainty on the ${{ J}}/{\psi }$ inclusive branching fraction from ${b}$ -hadron decays. The difference between the ${{ J}}/{\psi }$ and $\eta _c (1S)$ meson masses is determined to be $114.7 \pm 1.5 \pm 0.1 {\mathrm {\,MeV\!/}c^2}$ .The production of the $\eta_c (1S)$ state in proton-proton collisions is probed via its decay to the $p \bar{p}$ final state with the LHCb detector, in the rapidity range $2.0 6.5$ GeV/c. The cross-section for prompt production of $\eta_c (1S)$ mesons relative to the prompt $J/\psi$ cross-section is measured, for the first time, to be $\sigma_{\eta_c (1S)}/\sigma_{J/\psi} = 1.74 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.28 \pm 0.18 _{B}$ at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s} = 7$ TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 0.7 fb$^{-1}$, and $\sigma_{\eta_c (1S)}/\sigma_{J/\psi} = 1.60 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.25 \pm 0.17 _{B}$ at $\sqrt{s} = 8$ TeV using 2.0 fb$^{-1}$. The uncertainties quoted are, in order, statistical, systematic, and that on the ratio of branching fractions of the $\eta_c (1S)$ and $J/\psi$ decays to the $p \bar{p}$ final state. In addition, the inclusive branching fraction of $b$-hadron decays into $\eta_c (1S)$ mesons is measured, for the first time, to be $B ( b \rightarrow \eta_c X ) = (4.88 \pm 0.64 \pm 0.29 \pm 0.67 _{B}) \times 10^{-3}$, where the third uncertainty includes also the uncertainty on the $J/\psi$ inclusive branching fraction from $b$-hadron decays. The difference between the $J/\psi$ and $\eta_c (1S)$ meson masses is determined to be $114.7 \pm 1.5 \pm 0.1$ MeV/c$^2$