Re-examining the Consumption-Wealth Relationship: The Role of Model Uncertainty

This paper discusses the consumption-wealth relationship. Following the recent influential work of Lettau and Ludvigson [e.g. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), (2004)], we use data on consumption, assets and labor income and a vector error correction framework. Key findings of their work are that consumption does respond to permanent changes in wealth in the expected manner, but that most changes in wealth are transitory and have no effect on consumption. We investigate the robustness of these results to model uncertainty and argue for the use of Bayesian model averaging. We find that there is model uncertainty with regards to the number of cointegrating vectors, the form of deterministic components, lag length and whether the cointegrating residuals affect consumption and income directly. Whether this uncertainty has important empirical implications depends on the researcher's attitude towards the economic theory used by Lettau and Ludvigson. If we work with their model, our findings are very similar to theirs. However, if we work with a broader set of models and let the data speak, we obtain somewhat different results. In the latter case, we find that the exact magnitude of the role of permanent shocks is hard to estimate precisely. Thus, although some support exists for the view that their role is small, we cannot rule out the possibility that they have a substantive role to play.wealth effect; vector error correction model; Bayesian model averaging; cointegration; variance decomposition.

A Multiscale Approach for Modeling Crystalline Solids

In this paper we present a modeling approach to bridge the atomistic with macroscopic scales in crystalline materials. The methodology combines identification and modeling of the controlling unit processes at microscopic level with the direct atomistic determination of fundamental material properties. These properties are computed using a many body Force Field derived from ab initio quantum-mechanical calculations. This approach is exercised to describe the mechanical response of high-purity Tantalum single crystals, including the effect of temperature and strain-rate on the hardening rate. The resulting atomistically informed model is found to capture salient features of the behavior of these crystals such as: the dependence of the initial yield point on temperature and strain rate; the presence of a marked stage I of easy glide, specially at low temperatures and high strain rates; the sharp onset of stage II hardening and its tendency to shift towards lower strains, and eventually disappear, as the temperature increases or the strain rate decreases; the parabolic stage II hardening at low strain rates or high temperatures; the stage II softening at high strain rates or low temperatures; the trend towards saturation at high strains; the temperature and strain-rate dependence of the saturation stress; and the orientation dependence of the hardening rate.Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures, LaTe

Association of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide with cognitive function and depression in elderly people with type 2 diabetes

<p>Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with risk of congestive heart failure (CHF), cognitive dysfunction and depression. CHF itself is linked both to poor cognition and depression. The ventricular N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a marker of CHF, suggesting potential as a marker for cognitive impairment and/or depression. This was tested in the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (ET2DS).</p> <p>Methodology and Principal Findings: Cross-sectional analysis of 1066 men and women aged 60–75 with type 2 diabetes. Results from seven neuropsychological tests were combined in a standardised general cognitive ability factor, ‘g’. A vocabulary-based test estimated pre-morbid cognitive ability. The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) assessed possible depression. After adjustment for age and sex, raised plasma NT-proBNP was weakly associated with lower ‘g’ and higher depression scores (ß −0.09, 95% CI −0.13 to −0.03, p = 0.004 and ß 0.08, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.12, p<0.001, respectively). Comparing extreme quintiles of NT-proBNP, subjects in the highest quintile were more likely to have reduced cognitive ability (within the lowest tertile of ‘g’) and ‘possible’ depression (HADS depression ≥8) (OR 1.80; 95% CI: 1.20, 2.70; p = 0.005 and OR 2.18; 95% CI: 1.28, 3.71; p = 0.004, respectively). Associations persisted when pre-morbid ability was adjusted for, but as expected were no longer statistically significant following the adjustment for diabetes-related and vascular co-variates (β −0.02, 95% CI −0.07 to 0.03, p>0.05 for ‘g’; β 0.03, 95% CI −0.02 to 0.07, p>0.05 for depression scores).</p> <p>Conclusion: Raised plasma NT-proBNP was weakly but statistically significantly associated with poorer cognitive function and depression. The prospective phases of the ET2DS will help determine whether or not NT-proBNP can be considered a risk marker for subsequent cognitive impairment and incident depression and whether it provides additional information over and above traditional risk factors for these conditions.</p&gt

Interaction of vortices in thin superconducting films and Berezinskii-Kosterlitz-Thouless transition

The precondition for the BKT transition in thin superconducting films, the logarithmic intervortex interaction, is satisfied at distances short relative to $\Lambda=2\lambda^2/d$, $\lambda$ is the London penetration depth of the bulk material and $d$ is the film thickness. For this reason, the search for the transition has been conducted in samples of the size $L<\Lambda$. It is argued below that film edges turn the interaction into near exponential (short-range) thus making the BKT transition impossible. If however the substrate is superconducting and separated from the film by an insulated layer, the logarithmic intervortex interaction is recovered and the BKT transition should be observable.Comment: 4 pages, no figure

From dispersionless to soliton systems via Weyl-Moyal like deformations

The formalism of quantization deformation is reviewed and the Weyl-Moyal like deformation is applied to systematic construction of the field and lattice integrable soliton systems from Poisson algebras of dispersionless systems.Comment: 26 page

Re-examining the consumption-wealth relationship : the role of model uncertainty

This paper discusses the consumption-wealth relationship. Following the recent influential workof Lettau and Ludvigson [e.g. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), (2004)], we use data on consumption, assets andlabor income and a vector error correction framework. Key …ndings of their work are that consumption doesrespond to permanent changes in wealth in the expected manner, but that most changes in wealth are transitoryand have no e¤ect on consumption. We investigate the robustness of these results to model uncertainty andargue for the use of Bayesian model averaging. We …nd that there is model uncertainty with regards to thenumber of cointegrating vectors, the form of deterministic components, lag length and whether the cointegratingresiduals a¤ect consumption and income directly. Whether this uncertainty has important empirical implicationsdepends on the researcher's attitude towards the economic theory used by Lettau and Ludvigson. If we workwith their model, our findings are very similar to theirs. However, if we work with a broader set of models andlet the data speak, we obtain somewhat di¤erent results. In the latter case, we …nd that the exact magnitudeof the role of permanent shocks is hard to estimate precisely. Thus, although some support exists for the viewthat their role is small, we cannot rule out the possibility that they have a substantive role to play

Public understanding and awareness of and response to monkeypox virus outbreak: A cross-sectional survey of the most affected communities in the United Kingdom during the 2022 public health emergency.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to examine the public response to public health and media messaging during the human monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak in the UK, focusing on at-risk communities. METHODS: A co-produced, cross-sectional survey was administered in June and July 2022 using community social media channels and the Grindr dating app. Basic descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and odds ratio p values are presented. RESULTS: Of 1932 survey respondents, 1750 identified as men, 88 as women, and 64 as gender non-conforming. Sexual identity was described as gay/lesbian/queer (80%), bisexual (12%), heterosexual (4%), and pansexual (2%); 39% were aged <40 years; 71% self-identified as White, 3% as Black, 8% as Asian, 2%as LatinX, and 11% as 'Mixed or Other' heritage groups. In total, 85% were employed and 79% had completed higher education. A total of 7% of respondents identified themselves as living with HIV. Overall, 34% reported limited understanding of public health information, 52% considered themselves at risk, 61% agreed that people with MPXV should isolate for 21 days, 49% reported they would first attend a sexual health clinic if symptomatic, 86% reported they would accept a vaccine, and 59% believed that MPXV originated from animals. The most trusted sources of information were healthcare professionals (37%), official health agencies (29%), and mainstream media (12%). CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine acceptability was very high, yet the understanding and acceptance of public health information varied. Social determinants of health inequalities already shaping the UK landscape risk were compounded in this new emergency. Engagement with structurally disadvantaged members of affected communities and better dissemination of public health messaging by trusted healthcare professionals are essential for the public health response

Two-component generalizations of the Camassa-Holm equation

A classification of integrable two-component systems of non-evolutionary partial differential equations that are analogous to the Camassa-Holm equation is carried out via the perturbative symmetry approach. Independently, a classification of compatible pairs of Hamiltonian operators is carried out, which leads to bi-Hamiltonian structures for the same systems of equations. Some exact solutions and Lax pairs are also constructed for the systems considered