Using a decline in serum hCG between days 0-4 to predict ectopic pregnancy treatment success after single-dose methotrexate:a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The current measure of treatment efficacy of single-dose methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy, is a fall in serum hCG of ≥15% between days 4–7 of treatment, which has a positive predictive value of 93% for treatment success. Two small studies have proposed a fall in serum hCG between days 0–4 after treatment confers similar, earlier prognostic information, with positive predictive values of 100% and 88% for treatment success. We sought to validate this in a large, independent cohort because of the potentially significant clinical implications.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a retrospective study of women (n=206) treated with single-dose methotrexate for ectopic pregnancy (pre-treatment serum hCG levels ≤3000 IU/L) at Scottish hospitals between 2006–2011. Women were divided into two cohorts based on whether their serum hCG levels rose or fell between days 0–4 after methotrexate. Treatment outcomes of women in each cohort were compared, and the test performance characteristics calculated. This methodology was repeated for the current measure (≥15% fall in serum hCG between days 4–7 of treatment) and an alternate early measure (<20% fall in serum hCG between days 0–4 of treatment), and all three measures were compared for their ability to predict medical treatment success.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In our cohort, the positive predictive value of the current clinical measure was 89% (95% CI 84-94%) (121/136). A falling serum hCG between days 0–4 predicted treatment success in 85% (95% CI 79-92%) of cases (94/110) and a <20% fall in serum hCG between days 0–4 predicted treatment success in 94% (95% CI 88-100%) of cases (59/63). There was no significant difference in the ability of these tests to predict medical treatment success.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We have verified that a decline in serum hCG between days 0–4 after methotrexate treatment for ectopic pregnancies, with pre-treatment serum hCG levels ≤3000 IU/L, provides an early indication of likelihood of treatment success, and performs just as well as the existing measure, which only provides prognostic information on day 7.</p

Medical Therapies for Uterine Fibroids - A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND: Uterine fibroids are common, often symptomatic and a third of women need repeated time off work. Consequently 25% to 50% of women with fibroids receive surgical treatment, namely myomectomy or hysterectomy. Hysterectomy is the definitive treatment as fibroids are hormone dependent and frequently recurrent. Medical treatment aims to control symptoms in order to replace or delay surgery. This may improve the outcome of surgery and prevent recurrence. PURPOSE: To determine whether any medical treatment can be recommended in the treatment of women with fibroids about to undergo surgery and in those for whom surgery is not planned based on currently available evidence. STUDY SELECTION: Two authors independently identified randomised controlled trials (RCT) of all pharmacological treatments aimed at the treatment of fibroids from a list of references obtained by formal search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane library, Science Citation Index, and ClinicalTrials.gov until December 2013. DATA EXTRACTION: Two authors independently extracted data from identified studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: A Bayesian network meta-analysis was performed following the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence-Decision Support Unit guidelines. Odds ratios, rate ratios, or mean differences with 95% credible intervals (CrI) were calculated. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: A total of 75 RCT met the inclusion criteria, 47 of which were included in the network meta-analysis. The overall quality of evidence was very low. The network meta-analysis showed differing results for different outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: There is currently insufficient evidence to recommend any medical treatment in the management of fibroids. Certain treatments have future promise however further, well designed RCTs are needed

Bias associated with delayed verification in test accuracy studies: accuracy of tests for endometrial hyperplasia may be much higher than we think!

BACKGROUND: To empirically evaluate bias in estimation of accuracy associated with delay in verification of diagnosis among studies evaluating tests for predicting endometrial hyperplasia. METHODS: Systematic reviews of all published research on accuracy of miniature endometrial biopsy and endometr ial ultrasonography for diagnosing endometrial hyperplasia identified 27 test accuracy studies (2,982 subjects). Of these, 16 had immediate histological verification of diagnosis while 11 had verification delayed > 24 hrs after testing. The effect of delay in verification of diagnosis on estimates of accuracy was evaluated using meta-regression with diagnostic odds ratio (dOR) as the accuracy measure. This analysis was adjusted for study quality and type of test (miniature endometrial biopsy or endometrial ultrasound). RESULTS: Compared to studies with immediate verification of diagnosis (dOR 67.2, 95% CI 21.7–208.8), those with delayed verification (dOR 16.2, 95% CI 8.6–30.5) underestimated the diagnostic accuracy by 74% (95% CI 7%–99%; P value = 0.048). CONCLUSION: Among studies of miniature endometrial biopsy and endometrial ultrasound, diagnostic accuracy is considerably underestimated if there is a delay in histological verification of diagnosis

The METEX study: Methotrexate versus expectant management in women with ectopic pregnancy: A randomised controlled trial

Background: Patients with ectopic pregnancy (EP) and low serum hCG concentrations and women with a pregnancy of unknown location (PUL) and plateauing serum hCG levels are commonly treated with systemic methotrexate (MTX). However, there is no evidence that treatment in these particular subgroups of women is necessary as many of these early EPs may resolve spontaneously. The aim of this study is whether expectant management in women with EP or PUL and with low but plateauing serum hCG concentrations is an alternative to MTX treatment in terms of treatment success, future pregnancy, health related quality of life and costs. Methods/Design: A multicentre randomised controlled trial in TheNetherlands. Hemodynamically stable patients with an EP visible on transvaginal ultrasound and a plateauing serum hCG concentration < 1,500 IU/L or with a persisting PUL with plateauing serum hCG concentrations < 2,000 IU/L are eligible for the trial. Patients with a viable EP, signs of tubal rupture/abdominal bleeding, or a contra-indication for MTX will not be included. Expectant management is compared with systemic MTX in a single dose intramuscular regimen (1 mg/ kg) in an outpatient setting. Serum hCG levels are monitored weekly; in case of inadequately declining, systemic MTX is installed or continued. In case of hemodynamic instability and/or signs of tubal rupture, surgery is performed. The primary outcome measure is an uneventful decline of serum hCG to an undetectable level by the initial intervention. Secondary outcomes are (re)interventions (additional systemic MTX injections and/or surgery), treatment complications, health related quality of life, financial costs, and future fertility. Analysis is performed according to the intention to treat principle. Quality of life is assessed by questionnaires before and at three time points after randomisation. Costs are expressed as direct costs with data on costs and used resources in the participating centres. Fertility is assessed by questionnaires after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. Patients' preferences will be assessed using a discrete choice experiment. Discussion: This trial will provide guidance on the present management dilemmas in women with EPs and PULs with low and plateauing serum hCG concentrations