What Butterfly Effect? The Contextual Differences in Public Perceptions of the Health Risk Posed by Climate Change

The definitive version is available at www.mdpi.com/journal/climate.Abstract: One of the most difficult aspects of persuading the public to support climate change policy is the lack of recognition that climate change will likely have a direct impact on an individual’s life. Anecdotal evidence and arguments within the media suggest that those who are skeptical of climate change are more likely to believe that the negative externalities associated with climate change will be experienced by others, and, therefore, are not a concern to that individual. This project examines public perceptions of the health risk posed by climate change. Using a large national public opinion survey of adults in the United States, respondents were asked to evaluate the health risk for themselves, their community, the United States, and the world. The results suggest that individuals evaluate the risk for each of these contexts differently. Statistical analyses are estimated to identify the determinants of each risk perception to identify their respective differences. The implications of these findings on support for climate change policy are discussed

The economic impact of the Green Certificate market through the Macro Multiplier approach

In the last decade, as many other European countries, the Italian Government adopted several reforms in order to increase the use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). The liberalization of the electricity market that represent one of these reforms aims to reach environmental benefits from the substitution of fossil fuel with renewable sources.The Italian Green Certificate market was introduced in 2002 in order to accomplish this objective and represents a mechanism where a quota of renewable electricity is imposed to suppliers in proportion to their sales. The electricity industries are obliged to meet this condition by producing the quantity of renewable electricity by means of a change in their production process, otherwise they must buy a number of certificates corresponding to the quota. This mechanism changes the importance of the electricity industry first in promoting climate protection, than in terms of the impact in the economy as a whole. A policy aimed to develop the market of green certificates may lead to environmental improvement by switching the energy production process to renewable resources. But above all an increase in demand for green certificates, resultant from a reform on the quota of renewable electricity, can generate positive change in all components of the industrial production. For this purpose, the paper aims to quantify the economic impact of a reform on Green Certificate market for the Italian system by means of the Macro Multiplier (MM) approach. The analysis is performed through the Hybrid Input-Output (I-O) model that allows expressing the energy flows in physical terms (GWh) while all other flows are expressed in monetary terms (e). Moreover, through the singular value decomposition of the inverse matrix of the model, which reveals the set of key structures of the exogenous change of final demand, we identify the appropriate key structure able to obtain both the expected positive total output change and the increase of electricity production from RES

Public perceptions of shale gas in the UK : framing effects and decision heuristics

Using two equivalent descriptions of the shale gas development process, we asked individuals to indicate their levels of support as well as their perceptions of the risks and costs involved. In version 1, shale gas development was framed as ‘fracking’, whereas under version 2 it was framed as ‘using hydraulic pressure to extract natural gas from the ground’. We find that individuals’ support for shale gas development is much lower when using the term ‘fracking’ as opposed to the synonymous descriptive term, and moreover, these differences were substantive. Our analysis suggests that these differences appear to be largely the result of different assessments of the risks associated with ‘fracking’ as opposed to ‘using hydraulic pressure to extract natural gas from the ground’. Our proposed explanation for these differences rests on the idea that shale gas development is a technical and complex process and many individuals will be bounded by the rationality of scientific knowledge when it comes to understanding this process. In turn, individuals may be relying on simple decision heuristics shaped by the way this issue is framed by the media and other interested parties which may constrain meaningful discourse on this topic with the public. Our findings also highlight some of the potential pitfalls when it comes to relying on survey research for assessing the public’s views towards complex environmental issues

Human Rights, Incentivizing Behaviors, and Security: Attitudes on Immigration Reform

The issue of immigration and immigration reform has been highly salient since President Trump announced his candidacy in 2015. Since becoming President, there have been several high profile controversies regarding immigration policy. This project seeks to understand attitudes toward immigration reform, in light of this heightened level of attention. Specifically, we examine the strength of social contact theory when held up against risk perceptions. Previous research shows that social contact between groups is a strong determinant of society’s attitudes towards different matters. Risk perception theory is less researched, but it shows to be important as well. It states that fear drives attitudes and will supersede every other factor, even morality theory. Media is being used as a control because it plays a substantial role in the believability of either theoretical perspective due to the media portrayal of these immigration policies.We are using these theoretical perspectives to analyze and help explain societal views on the immigration policies of the opposition to separating children from their parents at the border, building a wall, and offering citizenship to undocumented immigrants who serve the country through military service. To test our hypotheses, we conducted a survey of 317 students at a mid-sized state university. Preliminary results indicate that social contact does not hold up against risk perceptions when predicting immigration reform attitudes