Ricardian equivalence for sub-national states

The authors test Ricardian equivalence within an endogenous growth model for U.S. states, which have high rates of migration relative to most countries. Results are consistent with both Ricardian equivalence and endogenous growth, despite the relative ease of migration. Increases in productive government expenditures increase long-run real growth by the same amount, for example, whether financed by taxes or bonds. State rules limiting the use of bond financing may play a role in supporting Ricardian equivalence. The study provides the first explicit test of Ricardian equivalence for sub-national states in the context of an endogenous growth model.endogenous growth

An Economist’s Guide to Heaven

This paper is the first to offer an economic model of God and humanity as optimizing agents in the context of concrete belief archetypes (religious ‘contracts’) in Judeo-Christian theology. Data support the model’s unique predictions, despite their otherwise counterintuitive, unlikely nature. For example, the model requires that in one belief archetype, ‘good works’ not increase with strength of faith, as one might otherwise expect, and that what appears may be God’s dominant contract precisely balances divine penalties for reneging on promises with incentives to seek divine ‘gifts’—an equivalence supported in the data.economics;religion

The rising share of nonmarital births: A response to Ermisch, Martin, and Wu

We are flattered that our recent paper in Demography, GSS (2006), has attracted such close attention from Ermisch Martin and Wu (EMW). In this response we appreciate the opportunity to expand on several key aspects of our paper, but see no reason to substantially revise any of our major conclusions based on EMW comments. Reading EMW, one might think we had proposed the demographic equivalent of Newton’s second law of thermodynamics – the existence of a universal phenomenon, manifest in identical form in all places, for all groups, during all times periods, regardless of circumstances. It will be helpful, then, to review briefly the central points in GSS before turning to the major EMW comments, along with our responses.fertility, illegitimacy ratio, marriage, nonmarital fertility ratio, nonmarital births

Feasibility of a structured group education session to improve self-management of blood pressure in people with chronic kidney disease: an open randomised pilot trial

Objectives: We aimed to test, at pilot level, a structured group educational intervention to improve self-management of blood pressure in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The current paper explores patient acceptability of the intervention. Design: This was an open randomised pilot trial. Participants were randomly assigned to either: ● A control group (n=41) receiving standard clinical management of hypertension. ● An intervention group (n=40) receiving standard clinical care plus the educational intervention. Setting: Renal outpatient clinics at a single study centre. Participants: Patients with early CKD and hypertension were identified and approached for recruitment. Intervention: An evidence-based structured group educational intervention (CHEERS) using the principles of social cognitive theory to improve knowledge and self-management skills. Outcomes: Recruitment, uptake of the intervention and patient satisfaction were evaluated to explore patient acceptability of the intervention and to determine any differences between patients regarding recruitment and retention. Measures: Data on age, sex and ethnicity were collected for all patients approached to take part. For recruited patients, data were also collected on self-efficacy (ability to self-manage). Reasons given by patients declining to take part were recorded. Patients attending the educational session also completed an evaluation form to assess satisfaction. Results: A total of 267 patients were approached, and 30% were randomly assigned. Lack of time (48%) and lack of interest (44%) were the main reasons cited for non-participation in the study. Men were significantly more likely to be recruited (p=0.048). The intervention was rated enjoyable and useful by 100% of participants. However, 37.5% of the intervention group failed to attend the educational session after recruitment. Participants failing to attend were significantly more likely to be older (p=0.039) and have lower self-efficacy (p=0.034). Conclusion: The findings suggest that delivering and evaluating an effective structured group educational intervention to promote better blood pressure control in patients with CKD would be challenging in the current context of kidney care

Can an excellent distance learning library service support student retention and how can we find out?

Higher Education libraries have traditionally sought to be able to demonstrate the impact their services have on student attainment. This is particularly important in the current economic climate where libraries frequently have to defend their budgets in the face of financial constraints, whilst needing to demonstrate better value for money to students who are now paying more for higher education. A number of studies around the world have been successful in harnessing data around library usage to begin to show strong correlation with student retention and final results. But most of these studies rely on data from book loans and engagement with a physical library, and where students follow a traditional three or four year degree course. This is challenging for a distance education institution, like the UK’s Open University (OU), where most students rarely or never visit the physical Open University Library and where study and assessment patterns can differ from those of traditional universities. This paper outlines the efforts of staff at The Open University Library to embed their services and resources into the learning experience of their distance learners, and to aspire to find ways of demonstrating their contribution to student retention and achievement. While there is huge potential in the amount and range of data available, the challenge is to identify an appropriate model that allows The Open University Library to demonstrate how Library Services impacts on student retention, attainment and achievement

Residential mobility across the life course: Continuity and change across three cohorts in Britain

© 2016 The Authors Although a buoyant literature has emerged examining residential mobility across sections of the life course, a full life course perspective has remained lacking. This paper exploits an as yet under-used data source – the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing – to achieve this. The lifetime residential mobility trajectories of older men and women in three birth cohorts born between 1918 and 1947 are compared, examining how these are associated with changes in cohort members’ socio-historical contexts, and life course events in the domains of employment, partnership and fertility. Results indicate that change in residential mobility between cohorts is gendered, with persistent continuity between male cohorts, and marked change between female cohorts. Such gender differentials are particularly notable during young adulthood, highlighting the significance of de-standardising pathways to adulthood and the changing role of women in society. Generalised mobility pathways from birth to age 60 for men and women are identified using sequence analysis, and the paper discusses how these may be associated with contextual changes and life course characteristics. In conclusion, the research reflects on the benefits of the life course perspective for understanding the complexities of residential mobility, and the importance of socio-historical context in understanding trends and patterns in this area

Debt and nonlinear fiscal policy: evidence from the states

Evidence from a half century of experience by states identifies nonlinearities in the effects of debt and fiscal policy on growth. Effects are Keynesian for low to moderate levels of debt and stimulus but anti Keynesian for sufficiently high levels of debt or stimulus. Results are broadly consistent with models by Barro (1999), Judd (1987), and others

Debt and nonlinear fiscal policy: evidence from the states

Evidence from a half century of experience by states identifies nonlinearities in the effects of debt and fiscal policy on growth. Effects are Keynesian for low to moderate levels of debt and stimulus but anti Keynesian for sufficiently high levels of debt or stimulus. Results are broadly consistent with models by Barro (1999), Judd (1987), and others

Public Infrastructure, Education, and Economic Growth: Region-Specific Complementarity in a Half-Century Panel of States

We find region-specific complementarity between investments in public infrastructure and education, both k-12 and postsecondary. The complementarity helps to explain how regions capture returns to investments in education even when residents are mobile, and is strong enough for the effect of tax-financed expenditures on either public infrastructure or education to be significantly positive when spending on the other is high, even though the independent effect of either one is negative. Effects are identified using a recursive structure, very long lags, GMM-instrumental variables, and multiple controls for heterogeneity. Estimates are robust across identification strategies, estimators, and instruments

A Birth-Cohort Test of the Wilson-Willis Model of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing

18 pagesThis paper offers the first birth-cohort test of the Wilson-Willis model of black-white differences in nonmarital childbearing. Cohort data are uniquely suited to the model, and unlike prior evidence, support the power of the model’s predictions: For blacks, the nonmarital birth share rises, as predicted, with the ratio of female to male resources, but decreases for whites. Similarly, the nonmarital birth share for blacks decreases with the ratio of eligible men to women for blacks, as predicted, yet increases for whites. The model explains a majority of the racial difference in nonmarital birth shares