Long-term changes in stochastic structure of hydrolagic time series

Hidrološki proces moguće je analizirati kao stohastički proces na osnovu koga se donosi zaključak o njegovoj unutrašnjoj stohastičkoj strukturi. Struktura hidrološkog procesa predstavlja bitnu osobinu na osnovu koje se dobijaju informacije o njegovoj vremenskoj zakonomernosti. Dugoročne promene u strukturi hidrološkog procesa predstavljaju značajno pitanje savremene nauke. Isto tako, važna istraživačka pitanja predstavljaju i matematičko opisivanje hidroloških procesa, opisivanje njihove uzročno-posledične veze sa meteorološkim parametrima, kao i predviđanje dugoročnih promena hidroloških procesa. Osnovni cilj ovog rada je razvoj metodologije kojom se analiziraju dugogodišnje promene u hidrološkim serijama. U doktorskoj disertaciji su predložene metodologije za formiranje stohastičkih modela za kratkoročne i dugoročne projekcije godišnjih i mesečnih protoka. Metodologija za kratkoročne projekcije godišnjih i sezonskih protoka se zasniva na dekompoziciji vremenskih serija na trend, periodičnost, stohastičku i slučajnu komponentu, po uzoru na metodu TIPS koju je predložio Jevđević (1984). Predložena metodologija je nazvana modifikovana TIPS metoda. Vremenska serija se deli na deterministički deo koga čine linearni trend i višegodišnja periodičnost. Drugi deo predstavlja stohastička komponenta koja se modelira autoregresionim modelima višeg reda. Modifikacija TIPS metode se sastoji u identifikaciji makroperiodične komponente na uglačanim godišnjim i sezonskim serijama proticaja tehnikom LOESS. Na ovaj način se uklanjaju oscilacije visoke frekvencije i olakšava identifikacija makroperiodične komponente koja je od prevashodnog značaja za razmatranje dugoročnih promena u hidrološkim nizovima. Ovako uspostavljen model se koristi za kratkoročne projekcije godišnjih proticaja tako što se determinističke komponente ekstrapoluju, vrši se prognoza stohastičke komponente i određuje interval poverenja prognoziranih proticaja. Za razliku od kratkoročnih projekcija koje se dobijaju pomoću modela zasnovanog na unutrašnjoj strukturi serija protoka, za dugoročne projekcije mesečnih proticaja predložen je model koji koristi zavisnost proticaja od padavina i temperatura. Cilj modela jeste da se omogući njegova primena za dugoročne projekcije proticaja na osnovu klimatskih scenarija. Primenom analize osetljivosti protoka na glavne meteorološke faktore, utvrđeno je da na mesečne proticaje najviše utiču mesečne padavine. Takođe, dugoročne promene u proticajima su posledica postojanja istih promena u padavinama. Drugi uticajni faktor je temperatura, zbog čega je odlučeno da se model za dugoročne projekcije zasniva na zavisnosti protoka od padavina i temperatura. Za dugoročne projekcije protoka predložen je model SDTS, kojim se mesečni proticaji dele na deterministički deo sastavljen iz kompozitnog nelinearnog trenda, makroperiodične i sezonske komponente. Drugi deo je stohastički baziran na transfer funkcijama sa dvostrukim ulazom (padavinama i temperaturama) na mesečnoj vremenskoj skali. Ostatak serije čini potpuno slučajna komponenta. Prve dve determinističke komponente u predloženom modelu SDTS (nelinearni trend i makroperiodična komponenta) se modeliraju na godišnjem nivou, dok se preostale komponente modeliraju na mesečnom nivou. Pored modela SDTS, kao pomoćni model, razvijen je inicijalni model godišnjih proticaja zasnovan na transfer funkcijama sa godišnjim padavinama i temperaturama kao ulaznim vremenskim serijama. Ovaj model omogućava dugoročnu prognozu trenda i makroperiodične komponente na godišnjem nivou. Primena modela SDTS sa dugoročnim projekcijama padavina i temperatura iz klimatskih modela je moguća ukoliko se obezbedi ekstrapolacija svih komponenti modela u budućnost. U predloženom modelu komponente su ekstrapolovane na različite načine: (1) Nelinearni trend i makroperiodična komponenta za budućnost su dobijene na osnovu simuliranih godišnjih proticaja inicijalnim modelom sa padavinama i temperaturama iz klimatskih scenarija na godišnjem nivou; (2) Sezonska komponenta u budućnosti je formirana na osnovu pretpostavke da će se unutargodišnji ciklus proticaja u budućnosti menjati u skladu sa promenom unutargodišnjeg ciklusa padavina; (3) Stohastička komponenta za budućnost je rezultat primene modela transfer funkcija na mesečnom nivou sa mesečnim padavinama i temperaturama iz klimatskih scenarija.Hydrological time series is analysed as a stochastic process that is utilized to make an inference according to the internal stochastic structure. The stochastic structure of a hydrological process presents the main characteristic that is used to obtain information about its realization pattern through the time. The long-term change in the structure of hydrological process presents essential issue of contemporary science. Also, the important research questions are mathematical modeling of hydrological process, its cause-consequence relation with meteorological variables and prediction of a long-term change of hydrological process. The aim of this research is to develop the methodology used to analyse the long-term projections in hydrological time series. In the doctoral dissertation the methodologies for constituting stochastic models for the short-term and long-term projection of annual and monthly flows are proposed. The methodology for short-term projection of annual and seasonal flows is based on decomposition of time series on trend, periodical component, stochastic and random component inspired by TIPS method proposed by Yevjevich (1984). The proposed methodology is called the modified TIPS method. The time series is divided into two parts: the deterministic part which is constituted of linear trend and long-term periodicity and the stochastic component is modeled by autoregression models of higher orders. The modification of the TIPS method consists of identification of macroperiodical component of annual and seasonal flows by using the LOESS technique. In this manner, the high-frequency oscillations are removed. This fact is facilitated identification of long-term periodical component which is of fundamental significance for consideration of long-term changes in hydrological time series. The established model is used for the short-term projection of annual flows by extrapolation of deterministic component, the projection of stochastic component and determining the confidence interval of projected flows. In contrary to the short-term projections determined by using the model based on internal structure of flow series, the model based on relations among flows, precipitations and temperatures is proposed for a long-term projection of annual flows. The aim of the model is to provide the application of long-term projection of flows in accordance with climatic scenarios. The Application of sensitivity analysis of flow using the main meteorological factors is determined by the precipitations as the major influental parameter on flows pattern. Moreover, the long-term changes of flow time series are the consequence of the same multi-decadal changes in precipitations. The second influential parameter is temperature. Due to this fact, the model for long-term projection is considered to be constituted by using the relation among the flows, precipitations and temperatures. For the long-term projection the proposed SDTD model is used for decomposition of the monthly flow series into the deterministic part composed of composite non-linear trend, macroperiodical component and seasonal component. The second part is stochastic component modeled by the Transfer Functions with multiple inputs (precipitation and temperature) on monthly time scale. The first two deterministic components of the proposed SDTS model (non-linear trend and macroperiodical component) are modeled at the annual level, while the rest of the components are modeled by using a monthly time scale. In addition to the SDTS model, the Initial model of annual flows is developed as an auxiliary model based on Transfer Functions with annual precipitations and temperatures as input time series. This model provides the long-term projection of trends and macroperiodical component at annual level. The application of the SDTD model with long-tem projections of precipitations and temperatures from climatic models is possible under conditions provided by extrapolation of all model’s components in the future. In the proposed model the components are extrapolated by employing different manners: (1) Non-linear trend and macroperiodical component in the future are determined by using the simulated annual flows which are modeled with precipitations and temperatures from climatic model at annual time scale, (2) Seasonal component in the future is formed on the assumption that the interannual flows will be changed according to the interannual changes of precipitations, (3) Stochastic component in the future is result of the Transfer Function model on monthly time scales with monthly precipitations and temperatures from the climatic scenarios

Zeolit kao faktor poboljšanja nekih proizvodnih osobina kod krava muzara

Milk yield and milk chemical composition are largely affected by diet quality. Natural zeolite has been successfully used in livestock production as a feed supplement for some types and categories of domestic animals. This experiment was conducted over a period of 15 months involving Domestic Spotted dairy cattle. The test animals were assigned to three groups, each receiving different levels of supplemental zeolite. The control group comprised cows that received no zeolite supplement. Experimental groups I and II were fed compound feeds supplemented with 4% and 2% zeolite, respectively. The production traits studied included the following milk performance traits: whole lactation length, milk and fat yields over whole lactations, milk and fat yields over standard lactations. The results obtained suggest that zeolite supplementation affects some production traits, depending on the zeolite level present in livestock feed.Kontrolna grupa krava imala je prosečno trajanje laktacije od 312 dana, sa varijacijama od 300 do 360 dana. Ova grupa se po dobijenim rezultatima nalazi između ostale dve grupe krava. Statističke razlike u trajanju celih laktacija među grupama su značajne (P (lt) 0,05). Najniža proizvodnja mleka u celim laktacijama zabeležena je kod krava Kgrupe (6395,20 kg), viša kod krava I-O grupe (6714,13 kg) i najviša kod krava II-O grupe (6934,13 kg) koja je dobijala 2% zeolita preko krmnih smeša. Statističke razlike u proizvodnji mleka u celim laktacijama među grupama su vrlo značajne (P (lt) 0,01). Najmanja prosečna produkcija mleka zabeležena je kod krava K-grupe (6342,33 kg). Znatno veća proizvodnja je bila kod krava koje su dobijale zeolit. Krave I-O grupe dobijale su 4% zeolita i postigle su prosečnu mlečnost od 6690.86 kg. Krave II-O grupe dobijale su 2% zeolita i postigle su najveću prosečnu mlečnost od 6711.80 kg. Krave II-O grupe imale su najveću prosečnu proizvodnju mleka u standardnim laktacijama i najniži koeficijent varijacije među grupama. Statističke razlike u proizvodnji mleka u standardnim laktacijama među grupama su vrlo značajne (P (lt) 0,01). Krave K-grupe imale su najmanju prosečnu priozvodnju mlečne masti u mleku, a krave II-O grupe najveću. Statističke razlike u količini mlečne masti u celim laktacijama među grupama su vrlo značajne (P (lt) 0,01). Takođe su vrlo značajne (P (lt) 0,01) i statističke razlike među grupama u količini mlečne masti u standardnim laktacijama

Determination of defence capability requirements

A capability-based planning approach provides defence system with adequate response in facing uncertainty, economic constraints and risks. Determination of required defence capabilities is the most important and complex phase in capability-based planning process. The result of this phase is the list of required capabilities of the defence system. The paper presents method of determination of defence capability requirements and describes practical tools for the identification and the description of required defence capabilities. The capability requirements are identified by perceiving relationships among operational objectives, effects tasks. The capability requirement description contains standards and conditions that clarify necessary capability

Modern Approach to the Enigma of Bovine Respiratory Disease Complex: A Review

Research on bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) has strongly contributed to a better understanding of disease at both global and local levels. New agents have been identified and their nature has been better known since then, as well as all the factors that predispone the development of BRDC. Serious work in a number of researches has led to results that have proven significant synergistic interactions between viruses and bacteria that lead to the BRDC and complicate the prevention and treatment of the diseased cattle. Nowadays, it is necessary to apply the latest molecular and other techniques in order to examine in detail all of the specific causes, describe them accurately and provide effective prevention. This can primarily be accomplished by producing different types of vaccines, which are to be improved constantly. Serious progress has been made in researches on immunogenic properties and antimicrobial activity of various natural and synthetic substances in order to improve the production of more effective vaccines for control, as well as the development of a new generation of antibiotics to treat the disease. BRDC prevention programs have been successful, in which great importance was given to proper vaccinations and herd management practices. BRDC is still the most important disease of cattle from an economic point of view, since it causes great losses and expenses. (C) 2013 PVJ. All rights reserve

Efikasnost primene preparata na bazi zeolita u obrocima jagnjadi u tovu

The paper presents the results of a research on the impact of products based on natural zeolite on the production results of fattening lambs. The experiment involved two groups of lambs (the control - C and experimental - E groups), each consisting of 15 heads, for a period of 90 days. The meal was made from sheep milk, feed mixtures for fattening lambs and meadow hay. The test group lambs, unlike the ones from the control group, were given mixtures based on natural zeolite. Min-a-Zel S mixture (in the form of 25% composite) was fed to lambs from birth till their 14th day of life, directly into the mouth, once a day (before the morning feed), in the amount of 10 ml. Min-a-Zel Plus was given to them from their 15th day of life, together with the feed mixture (0.5%). Feeding was at will. The average weight of lambs at the end of the experiment, in accordance with the sequence of treatments (C:E) was 24.40:26.94 kg (P (lt) 0.01). Daily weight gain of lambs, during the experiment, was 229:256 g and in the experimental group it was by 27g or 11.79% higher (P (lt) 0.01). The test group lambs had a better utilization of dry matter, protein and energy, which justifies the use of products based on natural zeolite in fattening lambs.U radu su prikazani rezultati istraživanja o uticaju preparata na bazi prirodnog zeolita na proizvodne rezultate jagnjadi u tovu. Ogled je izveden na dve grupe jagnjadi (kontrolna - K i ogledna - O), po 20 jagnjadi u trajanju od 90 dana. Obrok se sastojao od ovčjeg mleka, krmne smeše za tov jagnjadi i livadskog sena. Iskorišćavanje preparata na bazi zeolita (Min-a-Zel S i Min-a-Zel Plus) pozitivno je uticalo na prirast, iskorišćavanje i efikasnost iskorišćavanja suve materije, proteina i energije. Prosečan dnevni prirast bio je veći kod jagnjadi ogledne grupe za 27 g ili 11,79 posto. Utrošak suve materije za kilogram prirasta u istoj gupi, bio je manji za 12,21 posto a proteina i energije za 10,58 posto. Manja učestalost javljanja proliva bila je kod jagnjadi ogledne gupe

Uticaj kukuruzne silaže u obroku krava muzara na sadržaj kalcijuma, fosfora i magnezijuma u krvnom serumu

The amount of calcium, phosphorus and magnesium in milking cows, blood was tested and it is one of indicators that cows were fed with these substances. The average amount of calcium, phosphorus and magnesium in blood of milking cows was tested and it is one of indicators that cows were fed with these substances. The average amount of calcium in tested cows, blood is 2.82 mmol/l, the average amount of phosphorus is 1.66 and the average amount of magnesium is 1.29 mmol/l. Cows, were fed by corn silage, alfalfa hay, along with concentrate of standard mineral composition.Ispitivan je sadržaj kalcijuma, fosfora i magnezijuma u krvnom serumu krava, kao jednog od indikatora obezbeđenosti životinja ovim elementima. Prosečan sadržaj kalcijuma u krvnom serumu ispitivanih krava iznosio je 2.82 mmol/l, fosfora 1.66 mmol/l i magnezijuma 1.29 mmol/l seruma. Krave su hranjene kukuuznom silažom, senom lucerke i krmnom smešom za krave muzare

Sadržaj kalcijuma, fosfora i magnezijuma u krvnom serumu ovaca po godišnjem dobu i fiziološkom stanju

The large number of sheep, especially the ones that spend the majority of time on pastures, is been fed with the meals, which do not contain all the necessary mineral substances. The level of calcium, phosphorus and magnesium on natural pastures is too low in relation to the needs of sheep. Therefore, the irregularity in the feeding of sheep occurs because of the absence of the other food sources. These irregularities are in the range from the acute mineral deficit or illness to the mild temporary forms, which could hardly diagnose, but they affect the level of production. The content of calcium, phosphorus and magnesium in the blood serum of sheep, as one of the indicators of the supplementation of sheep with these substances, has given in this paper. The average level of calcium in the blood serum of the control group of sheep was 2.61 mmol/l, phosphorus 1.04mmol/l and magnesium 1.31 mmol/l of serum. In the blood serum of the tested group, the average contents of calcium was 2.33 mmol/l, phosphorus 0.92 mmol/l and magnesium 1.37 mmol/l.Veliki broj ovaca, naročito onih koji dobar deo vremena provode na paši, hrani se obrocima koji ne sadrže sve potrebne mineralne materije. Nivo kalcijuma, fosfora i magnezijuma na prirodnim pašnjacima je suviše nizak u odnosu na potrebe ovaca. Tako se nepravilnost u ishrani javlja kod ovaca u odsutnosti drugih izvora hrane. Ove nepravilnosti kreću se od akutnog mineralnog deficita ili bolesti, pa do blagih prelaznih formi koje se teško dijagnosticiraju, ali se odražavaju na nivo proizvodnje. U radu je dat sadržaj kalcijuma, fosfora i magnezijuma u krvnom serumu ovaca, kao jednog od indikatora obezbeđenosti ovaca ovim materijama. Prosečan sadržaj kalcijuma u krvnom serumu kontrolne grupe ovaca iznosio je 2,61 mmol/l, fosfora 1,04 mmol/l i magnezijuma 1,31 mmol/l seruma. Kod ogledne gupe prosečan sadržaj kalcijuma bio je 2,33 mmol/l, fosfora 0,92 mmol/ i magnezijuma 1,37 mmol/l seruma

Uticaj bioaktivnog dodatka Biorila na rezultate jagnjadi u tovu

Investigations were carried out in order to determine whether the addition of bioactive substances 'Bioril' on different percentages in concentrate (0.3% and 0.6%), has an impact on weight gain and feed conversion in lambs. For the experiment were used lambs of Mis sheep breed, which at the beginning of the experiment were 50 days of age. The experiment lasted 42 days, so it is over when all lambs had 92 days of age. The experiment included 60 lambs (30 male and 30 female) were divided into three groups-20 lambs per group (control group I and II and III experimental groups ).The results shows that the greatest gains made lambs of group III. The difference between body weight of group I and II was 1.62 kg and was statistically significant (P (lt) 0.01). The difference between body weight of I and III group was 1.87 kg and was also statistically significant (P (lt) 0.01). The difference between the body weight of II and III groups was 0.25 kg and was not statistically significant (P>0.05). We find that lambs of all groups consumed per kg of gain more concentrated than hay. The difference in feed conversion between groups is not significant (P>0.05), but lambs of groups III and II consumed per unit of gain approximately 5g/kg and 10g/kg less concentrate than lambs of group I. Most hay consumed by lambs of group I. The difference in hay consumption between groups I and II is 20 g/kg. Lambs in group III consumed 30 g/kg which was less hay than group I and less 10 g/kg than lambs of group II. The most energy per kg of gain was consumed by lambs of group III, whereas lambs in II group consumed the least energy.Istraživanja su sprovedena kako bi se utvrdilo da li dodavanje bioaktivne supstance 'Bioril' u različitim procentima u koncentratu (0,3% i 0,6%), ima uticaj na prirast i konverziju hrane u jagnjadi. Za eksperiment su korišćena jagnjad od ovaca rase Mis, koja su na početku eksperimenta bila 50 dana starosti. Eksperiment je trajao 42 dana, tako da je završen kada su jagnjad imala 92 dana starosti. U eksperiment je uključeno 60 jagnjadi (30 muškog i 30 ženskog pola). Jagnjad su podeljena u tri grupe-20 jagnjadi po grupi (kontrolna grupa I i II i III eksperimentalne grupe). Rezultati pokazuju da su ostvareni najveći dnevni prirasti kod jagnjadi II eksperimentalne grupe. Razlika između telesne mase grupe I i II je 1.62 kg i bila je statistički značajna (P (lt) 0,01). Razlika između telesne mase I i III grupe je bila 1,87 kg i takođe je bila statistički značajna (P (lt) 0,01). Razlika između telesne mase II i III grupe je bila 0,25 kg i nije bila statistički značajna (P>0,05). Smatramo da je jagnjad svih grupa konzumirala po kg prirasta više koncentrata nego sena. Razlika u konverziji hrane između grupa nije značajna (P>0,05), ali jagnjad grupe III i II troši po jedinici prirasta oko 5g/kg i 10g/kg manje koncentrata nego jagnjad grupe I. Više sena troše jagnjad iz I grupe. Razlika u potrošnji sena između grupa I i II je 20g /kg. Najviše energije po kg prirasta troši jagnjad iz III grupe, dok jagnjad iz II grupe troši najmanje energije

Efikasnost primene preparata na bazi zeolita u obrocima jagnjadi u tovu

The paper presents results of investigations of the effect of a preparation based on natural zeolite on production results of fattening lambs. The experiment was performed on two groups of lamps (control – K and experimental – O), 15 animals per group, and for a duration of 90 days. The diet ration consisted of sheeps’ milk, a compound mix for fattening lambs, and meadow hay. Lambs of the experimental group, contrary to those of the control group were administered preparations based on natural zeolite. The preparation Min-a-Zel® S (in the form of 25% suspension) was administered to lambs from birth until the 14th day of life, directly into the mouth, once daily (before the morning meal), 10 ml each. Min-a-Zel Plus was administered starting from the 15th day by adding it to the fodder mix (0.5%). Feeding was ad libitum. The average body mass of lambs at the end of the experiment, according to the sequence of treatments (K:O), was 24.40:26.94 kg (P<0.01). The daily groth of the lambs, during the course of the experiment, was 229:256 g, and was 27 g or 11.79% higher (P<0.01) in the experimental group. The experimental group had better utilization of dry matter, proteins and energy, which indicates that the use of a preparation based on natural zeolite in the diet of fattening lambs is justified.U radu su prikazani rezultati istraživanja o uticaju preparata na bazi prirodnog zeolita na proizvodne rezultate jagnjadi u tovu. Ogled je izveden na dve grupe jagnjadi (kontrolna – K i ogledna – O), po 15 grla, u trajanju od 90 dana. Obrok se sastojao od ovčijeg mleka, krmne smeše za tov jagnjadi i livadskog sena. Jagnjad ogledne grupe, za razliku od kontrolne, dobijala su preparate na bazi prirodnog zeolita. Preparat Min-a-Zel®S (u obliku 25% suspenzije) jagnjad je dobijala od rođenja do 14. dana života, direktno u usta, jednom dnevno, (pre jutarnjeg napajanja), po 10 ml. Min-a-Zel® Plus im se davao počev od 15. dana uzrasta na taj način {to je bio je uključen u krmnu smešu (0,5%). Ishrana je bila po volji. Prosečna telesna masa jagnjadi na kraju ogleda, prema redosledu tretmana (K:O), bila je 24,40:26,94 kg (P<0,01). Dnevni prirast jagnjadi, tokom ogleda, bio je 229:256 g i u oglednoj grupi je bio veći za 27 g ili 11,79 posto (P<0,01). Jagnjad ogledne grupe je imala bolje iskorišćavanje suve materije, proteina i energije što ukazuje na opravdanost korišćenja preparata na bazi prirodnog zeolita kod jagnjadi u tovu

Long-term changes in stochastic structure of hydrolagic time series

Hidrološki proces moguće je analizirati kao stohastički proces na osnovu koga se donosizaključak o njegovoj unutrašnjoj stohastičkoj strukturi. Struktura hidrološkog procesapredstavlja bitnu osobinu na osnovu koje se dobijaju informacije o njegovoj vremenskojzakonomernosti. Dugoročne promene u strukturi hidrološkog procesa predstavljajuznačajno pitanje savremene nauke. Isto tako, važna istraživačka pitanja predstavljaju imatematičko opisivanje hidroloških procesa, opisivanje njihove uzročno-posledičneveze sa meteorološkim parametrima, kao i predviđanje dugoročnih promena hidrološkihprocesa.Osnovni cilj ovog rada je razvoj metodologije kojom se analiziraju dugogodišnjepromene u hidrološkim serijama. U doktorskoj disertaciji su predložene metodologije zaformiranje stohastičkih modela za kratkoročne i dugoročne projekcije godišnjih imesečnih protoka.Metodologija za kratkoročne projekcije godišnjih i sezonskih protoka se zasniva nadekompoziciji vremenskih serija na trend, periodičnost, stohastičku i slučajnukomponentu, po uzoru na metodu TIPS koju je predložio Jevđević (1984). Predloženametodologija je nazvana modifikovana TIPS metoda. Vremenska serija se deli nadeterministički deo koga čine linearni trend i višegodišnja periodičnost. Drugi deopredstavlja stohastička komponenta koja se modelira autoregresionim modelima višegreda. Modifikacija TIPS metode se sastoji u identifikaciji makroperiodične komponentena uglačanim godišnjim i sezonskim serijama proticaja tehnikom LOESS. Na ovaj načinse uklanjaju oscilacije visoke frekvencije i olakšava identifikacija makroperiodičnekomponente koja je od prevashodnog značaja za razmatranje dugoročnih promena uhidrološkim nizovima. Ovako uspostavljen model se koristi za kratkoročne projekcijegodišnjih proticaja tako što se determinističke komponente ekstrapoluju, vrši seprognoza stohastičke komponente i određuje interval poverenja prognoziranih proticaja.Za razliku od kratkoročnih projekcija koje se dobijaju pomoću modela zasnovanog naunutrašnjoj strukturi serija protoka, za dugoročne projekcije mesečnih proticajapredložen je model koji koristi zavisnost proticaja od padavina i temperatura. Ciljmodela jeste da se omogući njegova primena za dugoročne projekcije proticaja naosnovu klimatskih scenarija. Primenom analize osetljivosti protoka na glavnemeteorološke faktore, utvrđeno je da na mesečne proticaje najviše utiču mesečnepadavine. Takođe, dugoročne promene u proticajima su posledica postojanja istihpromena u padavinama. Drugi uticajni faktor je temperatura, zbog čega je odlučeno dase model za dugoročne projekcije zasniva na zavisnosti protoka od padavina itemperatura. Za dugoročne projekcije protoka predložen je model SDTS, kojim semesečni proticaji dele na deterministički deo sastavljen iz kompozitnog nelinearnogtrenda, makroperiodične i sezonske komponente. Drugi deo je stohastički baziran natransfer funkcijama sa dvostrukim ulazom (padavinama i temperaturama) na mesečnojvremenskoj skali. Ostatak serije čini potpuno slučajna komponenta. Prve dvedeterminističke komponente u predloženom modelu SDTS (nelinearni trend imakroperiodična komponenta) se modeliraju na godišnjem nivou, dok se preostalekomponente modeliraju na mesečnom nivou.Pored modela SDTS, kao pomoćni model, razvijen je inicijalni model godišnjihproticaja zasnovan na transfer funkcijama sa godišnjim padavinama i temperaturamakao ulaznim vremenskim serijama. Ovaj model omogućava dugoročnu prognozu trendai makroperiodične komponente na godišnjem nivou.Primena modela SDTS sa dugoročnim projekcijama padavina i temperatura izklimatskih modela je moguća ukoliko se obezbedi ekstrapolacija svih komponentimodela u budućnost. U predloženom modelu komponente su ekstrapolovane na različitenačine: (1) Nelinearni trend i makroperiodična komponenta za budućnost su dobijene naosnovu simuliranih godišnjih proticaja inicijalnim modelom sa padavinama itemperaturama iz klimatskih scenarija na godišnjem nivou; (2) Sezonska komponenta ubudućnosti je formirana na osnovu pretpostavke da će se unutargodišnji ciklus proticajau budućnosti menjati u skladu sa promenom unutargodišnjeg ciklusa padavina; (3)Stohastička komponenta za budućnost je rezultat primene modela transfer funkcija namesečnom nivou sa mesečnim padavinama i temperaturama iz klimatskih scenarija.Hydrological time series is analysed as a stochastic process that is utilized to make aninference according to the internal stochastic structure. The stochastic structure of ahydrological process presents the main characteristic that is used to obtain informationabout its realization pattern through the time. The long-term change in the structure ofhydrological process presents essential issue of contemporary science. Also, theimportant research questions are mathematical modeling of hydrological process, itscause-consequence relation with meteorological variables and prediction of a long-termchange of hydrological process.The aim of this research is to develop the methodology used to analyse the long-termprojections in hydrological time series. In the doctoral dissertation the methodologiesfor constituting stochastic models for the short-term and long-term projection of annualand monthly flows are proposed.The methodology for short-term projection of annual and seasonal flows is based ondecomposition of time series on trend, periodical component, stochastic and randomcomponent inspired by TIPS method proposed by Yevjevich (1984). The proposedmethodology is called the modified TIPS method. The time series is divided into twoparts: the deterministic part which is constituted of linear trend and long-termperiodicity and the stochastic component is modeled by autoregression models of higherorders. The modification of the TIPS method consists of identification ofmacroperiodical component of annual and seasonal flows by using the LOESStechnique. In this manner, the high-frequency oscillations are removed. This fact isfacilitated identification of long-term periodical component which is of fundamentalsignificance for consideration of long-term changes in hydrological time series. Theestablished model is used for the short-term projection of annual flows by extrapolationof deterministic component, the projection of stochastic component and determining theconfidence interval of projected flows.In contrary to the short-term projections determined by using the model based oninternal structure of flow series, the model based on relations among flows,precipitations and temperatures is proposed for a long-term projection of annual flows.The aim of the model is to provide the application of long-term projection of flows inaccordance with climatic scenarios. The Application of sensitivity analysis of flowusing the main meteorological factors is determined by the precipitations as the majorinfluental parameter on flows pattern. Moreover, the long-term changes of flow timeseries are the consequence of the same multi-decadal changes in precipitations. Thesecond influential parameter is temperature. Due to this fact, the model for long-termprojection is considered to be constituted by using the relation among the flows,precipitations and temperatures. For the long-term projection the proposed SDTD modelis used for decomposition of the monthly flow series into the deterministic partcomposed of composite non-linear trend, macroperiodical component and seasonalcomponent. The second part is stochastic component modeled by the Transfer Functionswith multiple inputs (precipitation and temperature) on monthly time scale. The firsttwo deterministic components of the proposed SDTS model (non-linear trend andmacroperiodical component) are modeled at the annual level, while the rest of thecomponents are modeled by using a monthly time scale.In addition to the SDTS model, the Initial model of annual flows is developed as anauxiliary model based on Transfer Functions with annual precipitations andtemperatures as input time series. This model provides the long-term projection oftrends and macroperiodical component at annual level.The application of the SDTD model with long-tem projections of precipitations andtemperatures from climatic models is possible under conditions provided byextrapolation of all model’s components in the future. In the proposed model thecomponents are extrapolated by employing different manners: (1) Non-linear trend andmacroperiodical component in the future are determined by using the simulated annualflows which are modeled with precipitations and temperatures from climatic model atannual time scale, (2) Seasonal component in the future is formed on the assumptionthat the interannual flows will be changed according to the interannual changes ofprecipitations, (3) Stochastic component in the future is result of the Transfer Functionmodel on monthly time scales with monthly precipitations and temperatures from theclimatic scenarios