An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The two paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions exceeding two trillion tonnes of carbon in the later pair. Their initially diverging cumulative emissions trajectories cross after several decades, before diverging again. We find that their global mean temperatures are, to first order, linear with cumulative emissions, though regional differences in temperature of up to 1.5K exist when cumulative emissions of each pair coincide. Interestingly, although the oceanic precipitation response scales with cumulative emissions, the global precipitation response does not, due to a decrease in precipitation over land above cumulative emissions of around one trillion tonnes of carbon (TtC). Most carbon fluxes and stores are less well constrained by cumulative emissions as they reach two trillion tonnes. The opposing mitigation approaches have different consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which affects the linearity with which the carbon cycle responds to cumulative emissions. Averaged over the two fixed-emissions experiments, the transient response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is 1.95 K TtC-1, at the upper end of the IPCC’s range of 0.8-2.5 K TtC-1

Use of simulation-based medical training in Swiss pediatric hospitals: a national survey.

Simulation-based medical training (SBMT) is a powerful tool for continuing medical education. In contrast to the Anglo-Saxon medical education community, up until recently, SBMT was scarce in continental Europe's pediatric health care education: In 2009, only 3 Swiss pediatric health care institutions used SBMT. The Swiss catalogue of objectives in Pediatrics does not acknowledge SBMT. The aim of this survey is to describe and analyze the current state of SBMT in Swiss pediatric hospitals and health care departments. A survey was carried out with medical education representatives of every institution. SBMT was defined as any kind of training with a mannequin excluding national and/or international standardized courses. The survey reference day was May 31st 2015. Thirty Swiss pediatric hospitals and health care departments answered our survey (response rate 96.8%) with 66.6% (20 out of 30) offering SBMT. Four of the 20 hospitals offering SMBT had two independently operating training simulation units, resulting in 24 educational units as the basis for our SBMT analysis. More than 90% of the educational units offering SBMT (22 out of 24 units) were conducting in-situ training and 62.5% (15 out of 24) were using high-technology mannequins. Technical skills, communication and leadership ranked among the top training priorities. All institutions catered to inter-professional participants. The vast majority conducted training that was neither embedded within a larger educational curriculum (19 out of 24: 79.2%) nor evaluated (16 out of 24: 66.6%) by its participants. Only 5 institutions (20.8%) extended their training to at least two thirds of their hospital staff. Two thirds of the Swiss pediatric hospitals and health care departments are offering SBMT. Swiss pediatric SBMT is inter-professional, mainly in-situ based, covering technical as well as non-technical skills, and often employing high-technology mannequins. The absence of a systematic approach and reaching only a small number of healthcare employees were identified as shortcomings that need to be addressed

Nuclear Breathing Mode in the Relativistic Mean Field Theory

The breathing-mode giant monopole resonance is studied within the framework of the relativistic mean-field (RMF) theory. Using a broad range of parameter sets, an analysis of constrained incompressibility and excitation energy of isoscalar monopole states in finite nuclei is performed. It is shown that the non-linear scalar self-interaction and the resulting surface properties influence the breathing-mode considerably. It is observed that dynamical surface properties respond differently in the RMF theory than in the Skyrme approach. A comparison is made with the incompressibility derived from the semi-infinite nuclear matter and with constrained nonrelativistic Skyrme Hartree-Fock calculaions.Comment: Latex (12 pages) and 3 figures (available upon request) J. Phys. G (in press

Global warming will affect the maximum potential abundance of boreal plant species

Forecasting the impact of future global warming on biodiversity requires understanding how temperature limits the distribution of species. Here we rely on Liebig's Law of Minimum to estimate the effect of temperature on the maximum potential abundance that a species can attain at a certain location. We develop 95%‐quantile regressions to model the influence of effective temperature sum on the maximum potential abundance of 25 common understory plant species of Finland, along 868 nationwide plots sampled in 1985. Fifteen of these species showed a significant response to temperature sum that was consistent in temperature‐only models and in all‐predictors models, which also included cumulative precipitation, soil texture, soil fertility, tree species and stand maturity as predictors. For species with significant and consistent responses to temperature, we forecasted potential shifts in abundance for the period 2041–2070 under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using temperature‐only models. We predict major potential changes in abundance and average northward distribution shifts of 6–8 km yr−1. Our results emphasize inter‐specific differences in the impact of global warming on the understory layer of boreal forests. Species in all functional groups from dwarf shrubs, herbs and grasses to bryophytes and lichens showed significant responses to temperature, while temperature did not limit the abundance of 10 species. We discuss the interest of modelling the ‘maximum potential abundance’ to deal with the uncertainty in the predictions of realized abundances associated to the effect of environmental factors not accounted for and to dispersal limitations of species, among others. We believe this concept has a promising and unexplored potential to forecast the impact of specific drivers of global change under future scenarios.202

Reação de genótipos de batata à requeima (Phytophthora infestans).

bitstream/item/30474/1/boletim-83.pd

Sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to enhanced regional Antarctic ice sheet meltwater input

Despite advances in our understanding of the processes driving contemporary sea level rise, the stability of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains uncertain due to the influence of strong ice-climate feedbacks. Disentangling these feedbacks is key to reducing uncertainty. Here we present a series of climate system model simulations that explore the potential effects of increased West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) meltwater flux on Southern Ocean dynamics. We project future changes driven by sectors of the WAIS, delivering spatially and temporally variable meltwater flux into the Amundsen, Ross and Weddell embayments over future centuries. Focusing on the Amundsen Sea sector of the WAIS over the next 200 years, we demonstrate that the enhanced meltwater flux rapidly stratifies surface waters, resulting in a significant decrease in the rate of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation. This triggers rapid pervasive ocean warming (>1°C) at depth due to advection from the original site(s) of meltwater input. The greatest warming predicted along sectors of the ice sheet that are highly sensitized to ocean forcing, creating a feedback loop that could enhance basal ice shelf melting and grounding line retreat. Given that we do not include the effects of rising CO2 - predicted to further reduce AABW formation - our experiments highlight the urgent need to develop a new generation of fully-coupled ice sheet climate models, that include feedback mechanisms such as this, to reduce uncertainty in climate and sea level projections

Reliability of team-based self-monitoring in critical events: A pilot study

Background: Teamwork is a critical component during critical events. Assessment is mandatory for remediation and to target training programmes for observed performance gaps. Methods: The primary purpose was to test the feasibility of team-based self-monitoring of crisis resource management with a validated teamwork assessment tool. A secondary purpose was to assess item-specific reliability and content validity in order to develop a modified context-optimised assessment tool.We conducted a prospective, single-centre study to assess team-based self-monitoring of teamwork after in-situ inter-professional simulated critical events by comparison with an assessment by observers. The Mayo High Performance Teamwork Scale (MHPTS) was used as the assessment tool with evaluation of internal consistency, item-specific consensus estimates for agreement between participating teams and observers, and content validity. Results: 105 participants and 58 observers completed the MHPTS after a total of 16 simulated critical events over 8 months. Summative internal consistency of the MHPTS calculated as Cronbachs alpha was acceptable with 0.712 for observers and 0.710 for participants. Overall consensus estimates for dichotomous data (agreement/non-agreement) was 0.62 (Cohens kappa; IQ-range 0.31-0.87). 6/16 items had excellent (kappa > 0.8) and 3/16 good reliability (kappa > 0.6). Short questions concerning easy to observe behaviours were more likely to be reliable. The MHPTS was modified using a threshold for good reliability of kappa > 0.6. The result is a 9 item self-assessment tool (TeamMonitor) with a calculated median kappa of 0.86 (IQ-range: 0.67-1.0) and good content validity.Conclusions: Team-based self-monitoring with the MHPTS to assess team performance during simulated critical events is feasible. A context-based modification of the tool is achievable with good internal consistency and content validity. Further studies are needed to investigate if team-based self-monitoring may be used as part of a programme of assessment to target training programmes for observed performance gaps. © 2013 Stocker et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

Coral mucus rapidly induces chemokinesis and genome-wide transcriptional shifts toward early pathogenesis in a bacterial coral pathogen.

Elevated seawater temperatures have contributed to the rise of coral disease mediated by bacterial pathogens, such as the globally distributed Vibrio coralliilyticus, which utilizes coral mucus as a chemical cue to locate stressed corals. However, the physiological events in the pathogens that follow their entry into the coral host environment remain unknown. Here, we present simultaneous measurements of the behavioral and transcriptional responses of V. coralliilyticus BAA-450 incubated in coral mucus. Video microscopy revealed a strong and rapid chemokinetic behavioral response by the pathogen, characterized by a two-fold increase in average swimming speed within 6 min of coral mucus exposure. RNA sequencing showed that this bacterial behavior was accompanied by an equally rapid differential expression of 53% of the genes in the V. coralliilyticus genome. Specifically, transcript abundance 10 min after mucus exposure showed upregulation of genes involved in quorum sensing, biofilm formation, and nutrient metabolism, and downregulation of flagella synthesis and chemotaxis genes. After 60 min, we observed upregulation of genes associated with virulence, including zinc metalloproteases responsible for causing coral tissue damage and algal symbiont photoinactivation, and secretion systems that may export toxins. Together, our results suggest that V. coralliilyticus employs a suite of behavioral and transcriptional responses to rapidly shift into a distinct infection mode within minutes of exposure to the coral microenvironment