Chalk streams and grazing mute swans

The evidence shows that swan grazing can reduce plant abundance, prevent flowering, reduce water depth and reduce fishery value. However, these effects seem to be limited to a small number of sites on larger chalk streams. The results of attempted management have been disappointing, and we currently have no simple effective means of preventing grazing damage. However, our understanding of the effects of swans on the chalk stream ecosystem has been growing rapidly, which gives us hope for future solutions. In particular, combining strategies which improve river condition and move swans away from sensitive areas could offer a way of managing grazing effects

Predicting oystercatcher food requirements on the Dee Estuary. A report to Natural Resources Wales

In UK estuaries conflicts have routinely occurred between economic and conservation interests regarding shellfish such as cockles Cerastoderma edule and mussels Mytilus edulis. The harvest of these species is economically important, but shellfish also constitute the main overwinter food supply of the oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus. In this report we use a simplified spreadsheet model to predict the overwinter food requirements of oystercatchers in the Dee Estuary and compare the predictions of this model with those of an individual-based model which has been used to advise the setting of Total Allowable Catch in the Dee Estuary over recent years. The models are based on the energy requirements of the birds and the energy value of their shellfish food. The spreadsheet model predicts the amount of shellfish required to maintain high survival rates within the oystercatcher population. The individual-based model predicts how the survival rate within the oystercatcher population is related to the amount of shellfish food and the amount removed by shellfishing. Although more complicated, the individual-based model represents the system in a more realistic way and can simulate specific shellfishing scenarios. The models produced relatively similar predictions, especially when it was assumed that birds fed on upshore and terrestrial food in addition to cockles. As the biomass of cockles has declined since 2008, the models predicted that the amount required by the birds became close to the total available in 2012. The cockle biomass during 2013 was lower than that during 2012 and the spreadsheet model predicted that the birds required virtually all of the cockle stocks available

Predicting food requirements of overwintering shorebird populations on the Solway Firth. A report to Scottish Natural Heritage and Marine Scotland

In this report we use a recently-developed spreadsheet model to predict the overwinter food requirements of two shorebird species, oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) and red knot (Calidris canutus), within the Solway Firth. The model is based on the energy requirements of the birds together with the energy value of their shellfish food. The model predicts the quantity of shellfish required to maintain high survival rates, and hence avoid significant mortality events within the oystercatcher and knot populations. Knot were assumed to consume 5-14mm cockles (Cerastoderma edule L.), 5-24mm mussels (Mytilus edulis L.) and 8-16 mm tellin (Macoma balthica L.). Oystercatcher were assumed to consume >15mm cockles, 30-60mm mussels and >12mm tellin. The biomasses of invertebrate prey were derived from intertidal surveys of the site. The population sizes of the bird species were derived from Wetland Bird Survey (WeBS) core counts. Predictions were for the winter of 2013-2014. Shellfishing was assumed to exploit >28mm cockles. The food requirements of oystercatcher and knot were predicted for different combinations of food supply. All scenarios assumed that the birds could consume cockles, mussels and tellin. Alternative scenarios assumed that knot and oystercatcher could consume other food from upshore areas, or that oystercatcher could consume food from terrestrial habitats. Cockle and tellin biomasses were estimated within Solway Firth, and at Wigtown Bay, a site outside the area in which bird population sizes were estimated. Further scenarios therefore assumed that birds either could, or could not, consume food from Wigtown Bay. In each scenario the model initially predicted the amount of shellfish biomass not required by the birds. This was then converted into the biomass potentially available for fishing, accounting for the fact that the size range exploited by fishing did not overlap completely with that consumed by the birds. In the case of knot there was no overlap, and so the amount available to fishing was only calculated from the biomass of shellfish not required by oystercatcher. The model predicted that approximately 700 tonnes of >28mm cockles could potentially be exploited by shellfishing during the winter of 2013-2014, after taking into account the food requirements of the birds, excluding cockle and tellin biomass in Wigtown Bay, and assuming that oystercatcher consumed cockles, mussels, tellin and prey from upshore areas and terrestrial habitats. This was considered to be the most realistic scenario given that oystercatcher can potentially feed on terrestrial and upshore habitats, and given the distance between Wigtown and the area in which oystercatcher population size was estimated. The cockle, mussel and tellin surveys did not cover the entire extent of the Solway Firth, not recording cockles or tellin in English waters or mussels or the Scottish side, and so it is likely that a higher biomass of shellfish food is available to the birds in reality. However, without a more extensive survey it is not possible to quantify this. The spreadsheet model’s predictions for the winter of 2007-2008 were also compared with those of a more complex individual-based model that was developed for oystercatcher and knot in the Solway Firth based on shellfish biomass during 2005 to 2007. The individual-based model predicted that knot survival was 100% in all simulations for the winter of 2007-2008, consistent with the prediction of the spreadsheet model that 18038 tonnes of shellfish were not required by the birds during this winter. The spreadsheet model predicted that the oystercatcher population required all of the shellfish food available during the winter of 2007-2008. Similarly, the individual-based model predicted that oystercatcher were relatively sensitive to the amount of biomass removed by fishing during this winter. With a shellfishing Total Allowable Catch (TAC) set at 1000 tonnes there was a predicted reduction in survival and TACs set at 500, 750 and 1000 tonnes were predicted to reduce body mass. The spreadsheet model predicted that birds required all of the food during 2007-2008 and hence that any TAC would reduce survival. This demonstrates that the spreadsheet model is capable of producing broadly similar predictions to the more complex individual model, although the latter is more sensitive when stock levels are more critical

Towards a simplified approach for assessing bird food requirements on shellfisheries. A report to the Welsh Government.

In northwest Europe conflicts have routinely occurred between economic and conservation interests regarding shellfish such as cockles and mussels. The harvest of these species is economically important, but shellfish also constitute the main overwinter food supply of the oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus. In this report we describe attempts to produced a simplified modelling approach to predict the quantities of shellfish which need to be left unharvested in order to ensure high overwinter survival of oystercatcher. We review oystercatcher diet and prey selection in order to quantify the dependence of this species on shellfish, and determine the size ranges of shellfish which the birds consume. We also review the food requirements of oystercatchers, based on their energetic needs and the nutritional quality of shellfish. In general the data agree well with those used in previous oystercatcher modelling studies. However, there is a possibility that the daily energy requirements, calculated from an all bird allometric equation, may yield an underestimate of oystercatcher food requirements. A comparison of the physiological food requirements, i.e. the quantity directly consumed, and the ecological food requirements, i.e. the quantity required to avoid high mortality, indicated that the ecological food requirement was between 2.0 and 7.8 times greater, with the value depending on the proportion of cockles Cerastoderma edule and mussels Mytilus edulis in a site. These ratios are calculated from empirical data on oystercatcher survival and the predictions of individual-based models predicting the relationship between mortality rate and the abundance of the food supply. Data from the Burry Inlet indicated that the mean ecological food requirement was 3.3 times greater at this site. We describe a simplified spreadsheet model, which we used to predict the food requirements of the oystercatcher population of the Burry Inlet, and thus the quantity of shellfish which must be left unharvested in order to maintain low mortality rate. The model is based on parameter values derived from the literature reviews in this study, including the energy requirements of the birds, the energy content of shellfish, the minimum size of cockles and mussels consumed, and the ratio of the ecological and physiological requirements. We describe the assumptions and limitations of the model, and compare the model with more detailed individual-based models that can be used to predict the mortality rate of shorebirds in relation to the amount of food available

Solent Disturbance and Mitigation Project Phase II: Predicting the impact of human disturbance on overwintering birds in the Solent.

The Solent coastline provides feeding grounds for internationally protected populations of overwintering waders and wildfowl, and is also extensively used for recreation. In response to concerns over the impact of recreational pressure on birds within protected areas in the Solent, the Solent Forum initiated the Solent Disturbance and Mitigation Project to determine visitor access patterns around the coast and how their activities may influence the birds. The project has been divided into two phases. Phase I collated and reviewed information on housing, human activities and birds around the Solent, and reviewed the potential impact of disturbance on birds. Phase II has involved a programme of major new data collection to (i) estimate visitor rates to the coast from current and future housing, (ii) measure the activities and distances moved by people on the shore and intertidal habitats, and (iii) measure the distances and time for which different bird species respond to different activities. The current report represents the culmination of Phase II, in which the primary data are used to predict whether disturbance may be reducing the survival of birds. Predictions are derived for wader species by developing detailed computer models of birds and disturbance within Southampton Water and Chichester Harbour. These models create a virtual environment within the computer incorporating the intertidal invertebrate food supply of the birds, the exposure and covering of this food through the tidal cycle, disturbance from human activities, and the energy requirements and behaviour of the birds as they avoid humans and search for food. The invertebrate food supply of birds in the models was derived from previous intertidal surveys, and the exposure of intertidal habitat predicted from a tidal model of the Solent. The models incorporate the costs that birds incur when avoiding human activities (e.g. increased density in non-disturbed areas, reduced time for feeding and increased energy demands when flying away), but also their abilities to compensate for these costs (e.g. by feeding for longer or avoiding more disturbed areas). The predictions indicate how disturbance may be effecting the survival of waders throughout the Solent. The following waders were included in the models: Dunlin Calidris alpina, Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula, Redshank Tringa totanus, Grey Plover Pluvialis squatarola, Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa, Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica (Chichester Harbour model only), Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus and Curlew Numenius arquata. A simpler approach was used to assess how disturbance may be effecting Brent Geese in the Solent. As with any models, the predictions of the models used in this project depend on the data with which they are parameterised and the assumptions they make about the real system. The current and future visitor rates used in the models were themselves predicted using statistical analyses of household survey and on-site visitor data. The responses of birds to disturbance were parameterised using on-site observations of the responses of birds to disturbance. Furthermore, models are a simplification of real systems, and it is important to recognise this when interpreting their predictions. The report considers how the model parameters and assumptions may influence predictions. These include: (i) the way in which the disturbance data were measured and assumptions made about how birds and people are distributed in space and time; (ii) the way in which the behaviour of birds to disturbance differs between sites; (iii) the effect of extreme weather on the birds; (iv) how rare or localised activities are incorporated into the models; and (v) how consumption of food by species other than waders is included. The project predicted changes in visitor numbers to the Solent coast. Local authorities in the Solent region provided projections of future housing developments in the region. These were combined with data on visitor rates to different parts of the coast and the distance travelled to visit the coast, to predict coastal visitor rates with current and future housing. Using current housing levels, 52 million household visits per year to the Solent coast were predicted (i.e. the shore from Hurst Castle to Chichester Harbour, including the north shore of the Isle of Wight). Using the housing data provided by local authorities, visitor numbers were predicted to rise by around 8 million household visits, to a total of 60 million, an overall increase of 15%. Within Chichester Harbour, the food supply surveyed was not predicted to be able to support the majority of wading birds modelled. This implied that either the invertebrate survey underestimated the intertidal food supply, or that other food was available either terrestrially, or from neighbouring intertidal sites such as Langstone Harbour. Similar invertebrate surveys have been used to parameterise 17 other similar models, and in all cases birds were predicted to have survival rates close to, or higher than those expected. Due to uncertainties with the Chichester Harbour invertebrate data, it was decided not to use the Chichester Harbour model to predict the effect of disturbance on the birds. However, it is important to note what the effect of low food abundance would be on the effect of disturbance on the birds. The impact of disturbance on survival and body condition will depend on the birds’ ability to compensate for lost feeding time and extra energy expenditure. Birds will be better able to compensate when more food is available, and so lower food abundance in a site will make it more likely that disturbance decreases survival and body condition. Within Southampton Water, in the absence of disturbance, all wader species modelled were predicted to have 100% survival and maintain their body masses at the target value throughout the course of winter. Disturbance from current housing was predicted to reduce the survival of Dunlin, Ringed Plover, Oystercatcher and Curlew. Increased visitor numbers as a result of future housing was predicted to further reduce the survival of Dunlin and Ringed Plover. Disturbance was predicted to have a relatively minor effect on the mean body mass of waders surviving to the end of winter, largely because the individuals with very low mass starved before the end of winter. The Southampton Water model provided evidence that current and future disturbance rates may reduce wader survival in this site. Hypothetical simulations were run to explore how intertidal habitat area, energy demands of the birds and the frequency of different activities may influence the survival of waders within Southampton Water. The survival rates of Dunlin, Ringed Plover, Oystercatcher and Curlew were predicted to be decreased by any reduction in intertidal habitat area (e.g. due to sea level rise) or increases in energy demands (e.g. due to disturbance at roosts or cold weather). Wader survival was predicted to increase if intertidal activities were moved to the shore. This meant that the disturbance from these activities was restricted to the top of the shore rather than the whole intertidal area, and so the proportion of intertidal habitat disturbed was reduced. Reductions in the number of dogs that were off leads were also predicted to increase the survival of some wader species. Removing bait digging from simulations did not increase wader survival. However, this happened because bait-digging was assumed to be a relatively infrequent activity. This does not mean that bait-digging could not adversely affect the birds if it occurs at a higher frequency, and the simulations did not incorporate the depletion of the invertebrate prey of the birds caused by bait digging, which would be an additional effect on the birds in addition to disturbance. Brent Geese were considered in the light of the Solent Waders and Brent Goose Strategy. Important issues are the size of individual sites, their spacing and the ease with which birds can move between the sites. A high proportion of each site needs to be further away from visitor access routes than the distances over which birds are disturbed to ensure that disturbance to the birds is minimised. This could be achieved through a network of larger sites or by preventing visitor access through, or close to, smaller sites. Both intertidal and terrestrial food resources are important to the birds, intertidal food typically being of higher food value but dying back and / or becoming depleted during the autumn / early winter. Previous models of Brent Geese have predicted that the loss of terrestrial habitat typically has the highest effect on survival, and so such habitat is predicted to be particularly important for the birds. Maintaining a suitable network of saltmarsh sites will be increasingly important as the total area of saltmarsh declines with sea level rise. The findings of the present project are in general support with the recommendations of the Solent Waders and Brent Goose Strategy. Predicted current visitor rates varied widely throughout the Solent, but were relatively high within Southampton Water. The highest percentage increases in visitor rates were on the Isle of Wight (50-75%). Wader survival was predicted to be decreased in Southampton Water when daily visitor rates to coastal sections were greater than 30 per ha of intertidal habitat. The potential impact of visitors on wader survival throughout the Solent was calculated by comparing visitor densities throughout the Solent (expressed relative to maximum intertidal habitat area) to the visitor densities predicted to decrease bird survival within Southampton Water. The intertidal food supply within Chichester Harbour was insufficient to support the model birds and so any disturbance (by reducing feeding area or time, or increasing energy demands) would have decreased predicted survival in this site. There is also doubt as to the food supply within the other harbours and so some caution is appropriate when applying the results from Southampton Water to these sites. Coastal sections with daily visitor rates over 30 per ha are identified. The predictions of the Southampton Water model suggest that birds within these sections may have reduced survival due to disturbance from visitors. Whether or not such visitor rates will reduce survival will depend on the food abundance in the coastal sections themselves as well as that in neighbouring sections. The area of overlap between an activity / development and the distribution of birds is often used as a measure of the impact of the activity on the birds, with 1% overlap often taken as the threshold for impact (note however that this 1% overlap does not necessarily mean that an activity will have an adverse effect on the survival or body condition of birds). Therefore, the percentage of intertidal habitat disturbed within each coastal section was calculated as an index of the potential impact of disturbance on the birds. Assuming the maximum intertidal area and only including intertidal visitors, over 50% of the area of many coastal sections was predicted to be disturbed, with an average of 42%

Conservation in a changing world needs predictive models

Letter From the Conservation Front Lin

Predicting the effect of invertebrate regime shifts on wading birds: insights from Poole Harbour, UK

Regime shifts in benthic invertebrates within coastal ecosystems threaten the survival of wading birds (Charadrii). Predicting how invertebrate regime shifts will affect wading birds allows conservation management and mitigation measures to be implemented, including protection of terrestrial feeding areas. An individual-based model was used to investigate the impact of regime shifts on wading birds through their prey (marine worms and bivalves) in the estuarine system Poole Harbour, (UK). The model predicted the number of curlew (Numenius arquata), oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus), black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa), redshank (Tringa totanus) and dunlin (Calidris alpina) supported in the Harbour during the non-breeding season (autumn and winter months). The most dramatic declines in bird numbers were for regime shifts that reduced the abundance of the largest invertebrates, particularly marine worms. The least adaptable bird species (those with the most restrictive diets) were unable to compensate by consuming other prey. Generally, as birds adapt to changes by switching to alternative prey species and size classes, changes in invertebrate size and species distribution do not necessarily affect the number of birds that the Harbour can support. Our predictions reveal a weakness in using birds as indicators of site health and invertebrate regime shifts. Differences in bird populations would not necessarily be detected by standard survey methods until extreme changes in invertebrate communities had occurred, potentially beyond the point at which these changes could be reversed. Therefore, population size of wading birds should not be used in isolation when assessing the conservation status of coastal sites

Habitat complexity and food item size modify the foraging behaviour of a freshwater fish

The functional response describes the relationship between feeding rate and prey density, and is important ecologically as it describes how foraging behaviour may change in response to food availability. The effects of habitat complexity and food item size were experimentally tested on the foraging parameters and functional responses of the freshwater fish roach Rutilus rutilus. Habitat complexity was varied through the manipulation of substrate and turbidity, and food item size was varied by using fishmeal pellets in two sizes. As water turbidity and substrate complexity increased, the reaction distance and consumption rate (per number) significantly decreased. Increased food item size significantly decreased consumption rates (per number) but had no influence on any other foraging parameter. Analysis of the interactions between substrate complexity, turbidity and food item size revealed food item size had the greatest influence on consumption rate (per number). Turbidity had the least effect on all the foraging parameters tested. Across all experiments, the functional responses were best described by the Type II response, a relatively consistent finding for R. rutilus. These outputs reveal that fish foraging behaviours and functional responses are highly context dependent, varying with environmental parameters and the availability of food resources of different sizes

Applying Knowledge of Species-Typical Scavenging Behavior to the Search and Recovery of Mammalian Skeletal Remains.

Forensic investigations involving animal scavenging of human remains require a physical search of the scene and surrounding areas. However, there is currently no standard procedure in the U.K. for physical searches of scavenged human remains. The Winthrop and grid search methods used by police specialist searchers for scavenged remains were examined through the use of mock red fox (Vulpes vulpes) scatter scenes. Forty-two police specialist searchers from two different regions within the U.K. were divided between those briefed and not briefed with fox-typical scavenging information. Briefing searchers with scavenging information significantly affected the recovery of scattered bones (χ(2) = 11.45, df = 1, p = 0.001). Searchers briefed with scavenging information were 2.05 times more likely to recover bones. Adaptions to search methods used by searchers were evident on a regional level, such that searchers more accustom to a peri-urban to rural region recovered a higher percentage of scattered bones (58.33%, n = 84)